Page 1© Crown copyright 2004 ENSEMBLES Kick-off Meeting Dave Griggs, Director Hadley Centre, 15 September 2004

Page 2© Crown copyright 2004 Climate Prediction Modelling

Page 3© Crown copyright 2004 We can produce a small number of different predictions with no idea of how reliable they might be Current Status of Climate Change Prediction

Page 4© Crown copyright 2004 Probabilistic Climate Predictions 2080s SE England winter rainfall Probability 0% 20% 40% 60% 2080s SE England winter rainfall Probability 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% current position required position

Page 5© Crown copyright 2004 Future emission scenariosEffects of natural variability Modelling of Earth system processes Sources of uncertainty

Page 6© Crown copyright 2004 Ensemble Climate Prediction  Run ensembles of different climate models to sample uncertainties  Measure variations in reliability between models  Produce probabalistic predictions of climate change

Page 7© Crown copyright 2004 ENSEMBLES  A five year project under EC Framework Programme VI  Funding from EC of 15 million Euros  70 partners from EU, candidate countries, Switzerland, Australia, US  Ten Research Themes

Page 8© Crown copyright 2004 Strategic Objectives  Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the principal state-of-the-art high resolution, global and regional Earth System models, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales  Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System  Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management

Page 9© Crown copyright 2004 Scientific Objectives 1  Build an integrated European capability to predict climate changes, and consequent socio-economic impacts, on seasonal, decadal and longer timescales, using a probabalistic multi-model approach to climate scenario construction.  Assemble Earth System models including the various components and the interactions between them.  Develop high resolution regional climate models for Europe along with quality controlled gridded climate datasets for Europe  Advance understanding of the key processes and feedbacks that govern changes in climate, and related consequences, with particular attention to extreme events and the possibility of abrupt climate change.

Page 10© Crown copyright 2004 Scientific Objectives 2  Develop a comprehensive approach to the validation of climate change ensembles and the impact assessments, which includes the exploitation of seasonal to decadal predictability studies, thereby providing for the first time a sound, quantitative measure of the confidence in future scenarios  Estimate quantitatively the predictability of climate changes and variations, especially those associated with flood and drought, on timescales of seasons, decades and beyond, and to provide better estimates of the likelihood of abrupt, catastrophic climate change in the coming century.  Provide detailed probabalistic assessments of the impacts of climate change at high resolution over Europe.  Disseminate the knowledge gained during the project to policy makers, scientists, and the public.

Page 11© Crown copyright 2004 ENSEMBLES Research Themes RTNameCo-ordinators 0 Project integration, management and promotion Dave Griggs 1 Development of the Ensemble Prediction System James Murphy, Tim Palmer 2A Production of seasonal to decadal hindcasts and climate change scenarios (Model Engine Part 1) Guy Brasseur, Jean-François Royer 2BProduction of Regional Climate Scenarios for Impact Assessments (Model Engine Part 2) Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob 3Formulation of very high resolution Regional Climate Model Ensembles for Europe Jens Christensen, Markku Rummukainen 4Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events Julia Slingo, Hervé le Treut 5Independent comprehensive evaluation of the ENSEMBLES simulation-prediction system against observations/analyses Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank 6Assessments of impacts of climate changeColin Prentice, Andy Morse 7Scenarios and Policy ImplicationsRichard Tol, Roberto Roson 8Dissemination, Education, and Training Martin Beniston, Christos Giannakopolous

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Page 13© Crown copyright 2004 Research Themes RT1  To build and test an ensemble prediction system based on global Earth System Models for use in the generation of multi-model simulations of future climate in RT2A. RT2A  To produce sets of climate simulations and provide the multi-model results needed in other RTs, validation RT5, understanding processes RT4, as well as providing boundary conditions and forcing fields for regional model simulations RT2B. RT3  To provide improved climate model tools developed in the context of regional models, first at 50 km, later at 20 km resolution, including provision of a multi-model based ensemble system for regional climate prediction for use in RT2B.

Page 14© Crown copyright 2004 Research Themes (continued) RT2B  To provide ensemble based regional climate scenarios and seasonal to decadal hindcasts for use in other RTs, validation RT5, understanding processes RT4, and impacts studies RT6. RT4  To advance the understanding of the basic science at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, exploiting integrations performed in RT2A, linking with RT5 on the evaluation of the ensemble prediction system and feeding back results to RT1. RT5  To perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble prediction system, including the production of high resolution observational dataset, and using integrations from RT2, RT2A, RT2B and RT3.

Page 15© Crown copyright 2004 Research Themes (continued) RT6  To carry out climate impact assessments, including linking impact models to ENSEMBLES probabalistic scenarios produced in RT2A and RT2B, in order to develop risk based estimates of impacts. RT7  To adopt scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, land-use changes and adaptive capacity with and without greenhouse gas reduction policies and testing the sensitivity of these scenarios to climate change. RT8  Represents the interface between the ENSEMBLES scientific consortium and a wider audience that includes scientists, stakeholders, policymakers and the general public.

Page 16© Crown copyright 2004 Integrates world-leading European research  Participation by main European modelling centres to provide earth system model (ESM) and regional model components  Exploits PRISM infrastructure to explore uncertainty using multi- model approach  Strengthened collaboration between physical climate modellers and experts in the carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry  Participation by applications modellers to deliver climate impacts predictions of societal relevance  Uses techniques and knowledge gained at seasonal timescales and applies them to decadal and longer timescales

Page 17© Crown copyright 2004 Quantifies and reduces uncertainty in representation of Earth system  Carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, and climate to be considered together in a rigorous and interactive way  Combination of global and regional models enables resolution of adequate geographic detail, capturing both regional effects/impacts but including global teleconnections  Economic and social dimensions of uncertainty to be considered  Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify uncertainty, lead to increased understanding, and influence the development of the next generation of models, thereby leading to uncertainty reduction in the future

Page 18© Crown copyright 2004 ENSEMBLES  Description of work agreed, contract expected soon  Project will be managed by a Management Board under the terms of a Consortium Agreement  Project started 1 September 2004  Kick-off meeting September 2004

Page 19© Crown copyright 2004 The end

Page 20© Crown copyright 2004 Accreditation WAFC World Area Forecast Centre

Page 21© Crown copyright 2004 Questions & Answers