From centralised coal to decentralised renewable energy with biomass and gas as transition resources - a challenging transition for Poland Grzegorz Wiśniewski Institute for Renewable Energy, Warsaw, Poland

Role of coal in electricity generation in the EU Feuels mix (%) source: Eurostat EU-27 average 30%

Structure of final renewable energy consumption in Poland in the role of bioenergy

Electricity generation from RES in Poland, biomass co-firing with the fine coal in power plants dominating the green electricity mix (45%)

Appetite for additional (after 2010) biomass/arable land in the national Renewable Energy Action Plans up to 2020 on average 13% of arable land for energy purposes? EU-27 RES mix ‘2007

TWh/a Primarily energy demand by 2050 Reference/current official scenario – „business as usual” Alternative scenario –clean energy RES-Electricity forecast for Poland Current policy &Energy [R]evolution Scenario (IEO & DLR for Greenpeace Poland ‘2008 General assumption: reduction of CO2 emission per capita form 9 ton/ca in ‘2005 to 2,5 ton/ca in ‘2050 Wind+efficiency+gas Coal +nuclear TWh/a

Green investment in Poland by 2020 Source: Polish National Renewable Action Plan up to 2020 (NREAP’2010, IEO assessment ‘2011) RES specific investment cost [mln Euro/MW] Euro 26 bln for smart investment ≠ „just cost”

Overused of biomass, PV and geothermal grid parity after 2020  wind supported by gas (including shell gas) as solution ? On-shore wind farms as alternative to biomass co-firing Challenge: grid connection Small wind turbines as input or smart grids, starting from rural areal/farmers Challenge: access to the grid and lack of technologies Off-shore wind farms as alternative to nuclear Challenge: competition with the nuclear option supported so far by state policy Does the wind resources (supported by green energy mix) can deliver energy for the industry, cities and rural areal?

Energy consumption for agricultural production; electricity consumption, prices and growth in Poland/regions The energy consumption in agricultural sector in Poland increased significantly (over 30% per year) Energy price (PLN/MWh) Electricity prices for farmers [PLZ/kWh], 1€≈4 PLZ

Costs of energy supply in households and agricultural households in Poland Energy prices for (small) consumers in rural areas growing faster then in other sectors and costs of energy supply on farms (agricultural households) increase faster than in other households => On shore wind farms can increase the income (leasing land) & small wind turbines can reduce the spendings for electricity from the grid

Offshore wind energy market potential on Baltic Sea, 2030 (source: EU OffshoreGrid project) Significant potential of Sweden and Poland, possible to utilize after 2020

„How many roads must a man walk down Before you call him a man? (…) How many years can a mountain exist Before it’s washed to the sea? … The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind The answer is blowin’ in the wind” By Bob Dylan, Copyright © 1962 by Warner Bros Challenging and time demanding energy transition - Bob Dylan song instead of concussion: