Greenville: An Upward Bound Economy in Transition The transforming economy Incomepatterns natConverging but distinctive South Carolina’s Economy: Forecast.

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Presentation transcript:

Greenville: An Upward Bound Economy in Transition The transforming economy Incomepatterns natConverging but distinctive South Carolina’s Economy: Forecast & Indicators. Will South Carolina’s Flowers Bloom in the Newly Sprouted Knowledge Economy? Bruce Yandle Professor of Economics Emeritus, Clemson University

Greenville: An Upward Bound Economy in Transition The transforming economy Incomepatterns natConverging but distinctive

What matters now are BRAINS. How to get the brains…, and get them connected?

Average Annual Per Capita Real GDP Growth:

2005 Over 25 Population with High School Education

Percent of Population 25 or older with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2005

Let’s talk about where people work! And how that has changed.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent Distribution of US Nonfarm Employment by Industry 2006

Percent Distribution of SC Nonfarm Employment by Industry July 2007 Source: SCESC/LMI

Number of Employees: Professional, Scientific & Technical Services, 2005

Median Family Income, 2005

The Changing Industrial Scene America is disintegrating!

PRODUCTION-BASED INDUSTRY RANKINGS Iron/Steel Iron/Steel Printing Comp/El Comp/El Comp/El Apparel Apparel Apparel Autos Autos Aircraft Machinery Paper Plast/Rubber Food Food Food Food Fab. Metal Food Fab. Metal Chemicals Plast/Rubber Paper Paper Chemicals Machinery Iron/Steel Fab. Metal Fab Metal Food Iron/Steel Plast/Rubber Plast/Rubber Elec. Mchy. Chemicals Chemicals Fab. Metal Chemicals Machinery Printing Autos Printing Machinery Printing Fab. Metal Chemicals Printing Autos Plast/Rubb Paper Paper Iron Steel Plast/Rubb Plast/Rubb Autos Iron/Steel Printing Nonmetal miner. Source: Economic Report of the President, 2005, and Federal Reserve Board.

Looking for the Knowledge Economy How to get the brains…, and get them connected?

Voting with their Feet

Where are the Brains? South Carolina, 2000

What lies ahead? When will the sub- prime problem end? Recession????

Forecast Time Actual 12/31/06 Forecast 12/31/07 12/31/07 Forecast 12/08 Real GDP Growth 3.2% 2.5% 2.6%* 2.2% CPI Inflation 2.6% 2.5% 4.3%** 3.0% 30-yr. Mortgage 5.82% 6.0% 5.84% 6.10% Unemploy Rate 4.5% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% Prime 8.25% 7.75% 7.25% 6.00% Dow 12,460 13,200 13,264 14,200 Employ Growth 150M 175M 120M 110M Oil $58 $45 $93 $80 Gold $510 $600 $838 $700 ________________ * Estimate. ** Through November 2007.