TIM-GSD 13 June GSD Weather Modeling Efforts in Support of RSA Christopher J. Anderson ESRL/GSD/FAB 10-km grid valid 09 UTC 12 Jun1.1-km grid valid 18 UTC 11 Jun

TIM-GSD 13 June Model Overview MM5 version 3.5 –No cumulus parameterization –Schultz bulk microphysics parameterization –MRF PBL parameterization –RRTM radiation parameterization –Soil temperature model –Triple one-way nest –Source code is customized, and executable distributed on a single CD.

TIM-GSD 13 June Model Implementation Perform 2-hr forecast every hour for LAPS analysis –97x97 gridpoints –10-km gridpoint spacing –Boundary conditions: ETA –Initial conditions: LAPS Perform 24-hr forecast every 6 hours ( UTC) –Boundary conditions: ETA –Initial conditions: LAPS –Triple grid (each 97x97 gridpoints) Forecast length –10-km: 24-hours –3.3-km: 12-hours –1.1-km: 9-hours Run time –10-km: 1 hr 42 min –3.3-km: 1 hr 34 min –1.1-km: 1 hr 26 min

TIM-GSD 13 June Technical Support October Problem –MM5 software failed. –Notified Oct. 6 by April Hawkins. Response – correspondence with April Hawkins to diagnose run-time errors.

TIM-GSD 13 June Technical Support October Actions (6-11 October) –Confirmed the shared directories and communications were active. –Confirmed the MM5 exectuble was invoked. Resolution (21 October) –/var had filled, inhibiting proper communication among compute nodes.

TIM-GSD 13 June Technical Support November/December Problem –MM5 software failed to execute after OS upgrade. Response – correspondence with April Hawkins and Steve Cunningham to diagnose run- time errors. –On-site visit to Vandenberg AFB.

TIM-GSD 13 June Technical Support November/December Actions –Confirmed shared directories and communication were active. –Examined log files from failed execution. –Two-day on-site visit: traced error to an incompatible node list syntax Resolution (22 December) –Rewrote two scripts so as to be compatible with latest software for MAUI/TORQUE.

TIM-GSD 13 June Improvements to RSA MM5 Software Lowell upgraded OS at FSL 31 Oct - 3 Nov. –Ugraded MM5 CD to allow “wipe clean” install. Tested with the MM5test routine, and MM5 2-hr update for LAPS. Visited WR to provide patches for software compatibility with new OS. –Corrected node list syntax for compatibility with MPICH b and GM Elsmp- i686.

TIM-GSD 13 June Improvements to RSA MM5 Software Created new boot disk –Boots from a complete reinstall –Incorporates patches made during WR visit and Lowell’s visit to GSD in 2005 Oct –Considerably streamlines the install process

TIM-GSD 13 June Why Upgrading to WRF is Recommended Faster numerics –Shorter running time –Greater accuracy at high-resolution, especially clouds and precipitation Rapidly becoming industry standard –NCEP is running WRF as of mid-June 2006 –NCEP will run 4-km CONUS WRF within the next couple of years. MM5 development is frozen –Support of MM5 has ended. –WRF is effectively the next generation MM5.

TIM-GSD 13 June Why Upgrading to WRF is Recommended WRF MM5

TIM-GSD 13 June WRF v. MM5 Errors Model gridpoint compared to rain gauge observations within the American River Basin

TIM-GSD 13 June What Upgrading to WRF can do for RSA More accurate 1-km forecasts Shorter cycle between 1-km forecasts –1-km forecasts can be provided more frequently, taking advantage of hourly or sub-hourly LAPS. Larger, intermediate domain –More detailed information over a larger area –More accurate forecasts beyond 12-hour lead time –Two nests rather than three Decreases computing time; improves timeliness of forecasts. May use the current 10-km LAPS or create a new LAPS domain