Predicting Mathematical Proficiency : An Examination of Standardized Test Scores, Gender, and Ethnicity in Order to Predict CAHSEE Passing Rates.

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Presentation transcript:

Predicting Mathematical Proficiency : An Examination of Standardized Test Scores, Gender, and Ethnicity in Order to Predict CAHSEE Passing Rates

Third International Math and Science Study compared 4th and 8th graders. When first issued in 1995, U.S. was # 5/7 When reissued in 1999, U.S. was # 7/ / 25 (8th grade) 28/39(10th grade) Some Nations scoring higher in Math are Malaysia, Slovak Republic, Singapore(605) was #1, U.S.= 508

In June 2006, 41,758 members of the class of 2006 (roughly 10%) (California Department of Education, 2007) were denied diplomas as a result of failing the CAHSEE Rates of high school completion are lower in states with exit exams, than in states without such exams."(Walden & Kritosonis, 2008, p. 2)

States with exit exams also are among the "most populous states and those with a higher than average minority enrollments." (Chudowsky & Gayler, 2003, p. 11) Using the percentage of students who meet the annual measurable objectives set by a state might not adequately capture a detailed analyses of individual learning." (Ding & Navarro, 2004, p. 239)

A study of Arizona students (Judson, 2006) who took the state exit exam found that in 2004, 60% of students failed to pass the mathematics portion. Being able to retake the test does increase the chances that students will pass in all categories, but non-white students and females still are not performing as well as white males. (Tyler, Murnane & Willett, 2004 )

1103 students: 547 (49.6%) female and 556 (50.4%) were male. The ethnic breakdown: 823 Hispanic students (74.6%), 162 Caucasian (14.7%) and 70 African-American (6.3%). 599 (54.3%) juniors and 504 seniors (45.7%) Continuously enrolled

A multiple regression analysis was performed to test the hypothesis: H1: CST scores( )Math predict CAHSEEMath scores H2: CST scores( )ELA predict CAHSEEELA scores H0: CST scores do not predict CAHSEE scores

The previous 2 years of CST scores for ELA predict CAHSEE scores, R=.57 and R 2 =.57 The previous 2 years of CST scores for Math predict CAHSEE scores, R=.63 and R 2 =.48 There was no main effect for Gender, But a main effect for Ethnicity was observed.