Rethinking the Future – – Rethinking the Future – A series of four lectures – by Joseph A. Camilleri Hosted by St Michael’s on Collins Melbourne First Lecture Are we entering a new Cold War? 1

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The Great Transition In theory, our world still rests on a system of national, sovereign sates. In practice, it operates as a web of cross-national or transnational flows. Ours is a world in which people, goods & services, capital, technology, arms, information, images, carbon emissions, viruses FLOW ACROSS BORDERS at ever increasing scale, speed & intensity 4

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Rising US Trade Deficit 6

US Trade Balance in $ billion 1964: : : : : :

US Budget Deficits in $ billion 8

US Net Investment Position (2012) 9

Advanced Economies Annual GDP Growth 10

Emerging Economies Annual GDP Growth 11

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G7 and E7 Economies 2011 and 2050 PwC Economics January

Expected Changes China Overtake US as largest economy by 2017 in PPP terms & by 2027 in market exchange rate terms IndiaBecome third ‘global economic giant’ by 2050 BrazilMove up to 4th place ahead of Japan by 2050 RussiaOvertake Germany to become largest European economy before 2020 in PPP terms Mexico & IndonesiaLarger than UK & France by 2050 TurkeyLarger than Italy by

China’s Rise Chinese Real GDP Growth: (%) 15

China’s Rise Projections for Chinese and U.S. GDP on a PPP Basis: ($ trillions) 16

China’s Rise Chinese Real GDP Growth: (%) 17

China’s Rise Annual FDI Flows to China: ($ billions) 18

China’s Rise China’s Annual FDI Outflows: ($ billions) 19

China’s Rise China’s Share of Global Merchandise Exports: ($ billions) 20

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Russia under Putin After 9/11 attacks Putin quickly supported US in ”war on terror” In 2003 Russia opposed UN invasion of Iraq From then on he would consistently & openly criticise what he called US monopolistic dominance in global relations In December 2007 Russia suspended its participation in the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) In 2008 Moscow used force to support independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia In January 2009 gas dispute with Ukraine  state-controlled Russian company Gazprom to halt its deliveries of natural gas to Ukraine In 2010 Russia formed Eurasian Customs Union with former Soviet Republics, Kazakhstan and Belarus 22

US Actions Bombing of Serbia without UN Security Council approval (1999) US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (2002) US invasion of Iraq in defiance of UN opposition (2003) Overt support for the colour revolutions on Russia’s doorstep: Georgia: 2003; Ukraine: 2004; Kyrgyzstan: 2005 Western military intervention in Libya, which contrary to assurances brought about regime change (2011) Magnitsky Act singling out Russia for human rights violations (2012) Attempts to weaken Russia’s position in Syria (2011-) 23

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Nuclear Weapons 26

Nuclear Weapons 27

Nuclear Weapons Immediate Effects 28

Nuclear Weapons Long Term Effects THREAT TO FOOD SAFETY : Radioactive fallout could make large areas unsuitable for food production for a very long time. DISPLACEMENT : Those living within 20 to 50 km radius from ground zero would seek to avoid risk of radiation and infrastructure collapse by abandoning the area. ECONOMIC DISRUPTION: One nuclear explosion could destroy productive capacities, infrastructure and communication networks of an entire area, affect whole country & even whole region. ENVIRONMENTAL COLLAPSE: One nuclear explosion  widespread radioactive contamination, making food + water unusable. Several nuclear explosions  enough soot would rise to the atmosphere to cause large fall in temperatures with devastating impact for global production of staple crops (e.g. rice, maize) on which millions depend. 29

Resources Website 30