1 IPCC Media & Climate Change: Getting the Message to the People R. K. Pachauri Chairman, IPCC Director-General, TERI Roanoke, Virginia 17 th October 2008

2 IPCC The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Science at the service of policy-making

3 IPCC Role of the IPCC The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation & mitigation WMO UNEP

4 IPCC References to the IPCC in the Bali Action Plan (December 2007) “Responding to the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that delay in reducing emissions significantly constrains opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels and increases the risk of more severe climate change impacts” “[…] urgent and immediate needs of developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially the least developed countries and small island developing States, and further taking into account the needs of countries in Africa affected by drought, desertification and floods” “[…] emphasizing the urgency to address climate change as indicated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”

5 IPCC Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: 1. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”

6 IPCC Changes in global average surface temperature Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature 50 years o C 100 years o C Period Rate / decade

7 IPCC Global temperature change Year Temperature anomaly Models using only natural forcing Models using both natural and anthropogenic forcing Observations

8 IPCC II. Observed changes in climate Changes in global average sea level Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1mm/yr

9 IPCC Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: 2. “Continued GHG emissions [...] would induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21 st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20 th century”

10 IPCC Carbon dioxide emissions Radiative Forcing (Wm ) Carbon Dioxide (ppm) Time (before 2005) -2 Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increased markedly as a result of human activities, with an increase of 70% in

11 IPCC Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21 st century year Ranges for predicted surface warming

12 IPCC People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:  120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia  12 to 81 million in Latin America  75 to 250 million in Africa Expected impacts on poor regions Possible yield reduction in agriculture:  30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia  30% by 2080 in Latin America  50% by 2020 in some African countries Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

13 IPCC Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: 3. “Mitigation actions can result in near-term co-benefits that may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs”

14 IPCC Stabilization level (ppm CO 2 -eq) Global mean temp. increase (ºC) Year CO 2 needs to peak Global sea level rise above pre- industrial from thermal expansion (m) 445 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 2.4 Characteristics of stabilisation scenarios

15 IPCC GDP without mitigation GDP with stringent mitigation 2030 GDP Time Current Mitigation would postpone GDP growth by one year at most over the medium term Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth (for stabilisation scenario of ppm CO 2 -eq) Schematic graph

16 IPCC Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution Increased energy security Increased agricultural production and reduced pressure on natural ecosystems More rural employment Co-benefits of mitigation Co-benefits provide the opportunity for no-regrets policies and reduce mitigation costs

17 IPCC Energy system inertia: delayed emission reductions lead to investments that lock in more emission intensive infrastructure and development pathways Climate system inertia: even if GHG concentrations were held constant, a further warming trend would occur in the next two decades at a rate of about 0.1°C per decade Mitigation actions need to start in the short term in order to have medium- & longer-term benefits and to avoid lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies The urgent need for action

18 IPCC The role of the media: Ensuring proper focus on the future by getting the right messages across

19 IPCC The media and climate change: excerpts Time Magazine special Environment issue, April 2008 “The earth must be inevitably changing its aspect and its climate. How the change is slowly taking place and what the result will be has been considered.” (New York Times, 1932) “Every time you start a car, light a fire, or turn on a furnace you’re joining the greatest weather “experiment” men have ever launched.” (Christian Science Monitor, 1957)

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22 IPCC Role and limitations of mass media Mass media has shaped perceptions on climate change and has broadly affected translations between science and policy However, the media may not have reported enough on the urgency and depth of the changes needed

23 IPCC Some recommendations Go beyond the cyclical coverage of climate change & emphasise its day-to-day relevance  Adaptation & mitigation issues can be linked to a variety of news items and topics Inform, but also stimulate audience to think and act and emphasise existing solutions  Citizens and consumers’ opinion & choices are the main factors of pressure on decision-makers Link climate change to other issues of sustainable development  Fighting climate change goes through the creation of a more sustainable society

24 IPCC Media and public opinion on climate policy Issue of developing countries’ rising emissions currently dominates US public opinion on policy action in climate change India’s per capita emissions about 5 % of US per capita emissions; China’s less than 20% Integrating climate change into development policies is crucial, but lack of quantitative targets for developing countries should not be an alibi for US inaction. Media has a critical role in forming public opinion, to galvanise policy action on climate change

25 IPCC Equity aspect of climate change The impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately on developing nations, and poorer people in all countries In Africa by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change. Health Impacts: increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts; increased burden of diarrhoeal disease; increased frequency of cardio- respiratory diseases; altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020 Small islands are especially vulnerable

26 IPCC “All of us who professionally use the mass media are the shapers of society. We can vulgerize that society. We can brutalize it. Or we can help lift it onto a higher level.” - William Bernbach, Advertising Executive