The Rise of China and the Policy Responses of the US Jaechun Kim

 The rise of China and the US strategic response – key to understanding the future of international relations in coming years  The recent US foreign policy has been predicated on China’s rise to super power status… the US has put in great efforts to deal with China’s rise… Background of the Issue

 Rise of China and ‘relative’ decline of the US  1990 – 2006: The US economy grew by 60% cf. China – 330%  2010 – China became number two economy in the world  But the current international systems is ‘unipolar’ – the US remains the sole superpower  Unipolar system is different from ‘hegemonic’ system  The US no longer is a hegemonic state… Is China Surpassing the US?

 The US economic power  The US economy (GDP)is responsible for ¼ of the world and larger than sum of 2~4  The US economy is 3 times bigger than that of China  Per capita GDP – 10 times bigger…  Goldman Sachs predict sChina’s economy will surpass that of the US in 2027 But not per capita GDP! But not per capita GDP! Less regional disparities in terms of income Less regional disparities in terms of income

 The US spends more than 40 percent of world’s R&D – cf. about twice the size of China’s  The US spends 7% of GDP on education – cf. China (2%); The US hosts 80% of world’s top 50 universities…  40% of the OECD patent rights belong to the US; The US hosts the biggest IT industry and many other leading edge industries…  American economy has been in relative decline, but the US economic advantage will sustain longer than anticipated…!

 The US military power  Since 1996 China’s military spending has maintained two-digit growth rate; in 2009 China spent 2% of GDP on military (99 billion dollars) cf. the US spent 4.3% of GDP (6.7 trillion dollars)  The US military spending > next 9 countries  RMA  the US has state of the art military system!  Not only conventional forces, but nuclear forces… The US has advantages!

 The US has the strongest navy in history…; The US air power is unmatched…  Military Projection Capabilities –The US is the only country that has military that they can project all around the world… China is unable to project air and naval power to key areas of interests China is unable to project air and naval power to key areas of interests China in not able to field high-tech military forces China in not able to field high-tech military forces

 The US is anticipated to maintain military advantage for a long time…  China is relying on ‘area denial capability’ in Asia and is increasing ‘asymmetric force’ Ballistic missile or submarines to deny the US naval forces access to key posts in Asia Ballistic missile or submarines to deny the US naval forces access to key posts in Asia Special operation forces…and technology to disable the US satellites and communications… Special operation forces…and technology to disable the US satellites and communications…  Unipolar international system is here to stay…

 Cooperation and competition between the US and China cf. Cold War bipolarity  China is not a revisionist country! China is status quo oriented… cf. China feels threatened by the US dominant unipolar system... The Nature of G2

 Fatalistic view toward rising China… and also the competition – intention doesn’t matter!  A big time competition between the US and China… China surpassing the US… Two tigers can’t share one mountain….  Power transition theory;  Offensive realism – states would feel most safe when they become hegemon…  Is it really inevitable?

 The US strategy in the post-Cold War era - preserve unipolar moment!  DPG for ; QDR 1997, 2001; National Security Strategy of the US 2002  call for discouraging rise of hegemonic challenger…  Mixture of realist and liberalist policies The US Policy Response to the Rise of China

 Liberalist policies: Policies of engagement  Make China one of us! Transform China! Enmesh China in the global economy and institutional frameworks...  China’s rise can be managed… cf. China will be a threat  Economic interdependence Interdependence leads to peace Interdependence leads to peace

 Democratic peace  Institutions  Realist policies: policy of containment  Use American military power  Internal balancing

 External balancing Offshore balancing – let Japan, S. Korea, India balance off China! Offshore balancing – let Japan, S. Korea, India balance off China!  Realist policy response – based on American hard power cf. soft power – liberalist  Mixture of both! Matter of degree, not kind!

 Hedging!  Democratic administrations – more emphasis on engagement cf. Republican administrations – more emphasis on balancing…  Clinton – Strategic partner  Bush – Strategic competitor  Obama – engagement  containing?  engagement?