Severn Tidal Power Feasibility Study Severn Estuary Forum 2009 Juliet Austin – Environmental workstream lead, STP study, Department of Energy & Climate Change

Background: Two-year Government Feasibility study Government decision in response to Sustainable Development Commission’s 2007 report ‘Turning the Tide’ and increasing UK need for renewable energy To enable Government to decide whether it could support tidal power scheme in the Severn Estuary, and if so, on what terms? 10 long-listed options – 5 shortlisted after 2009 public consultation 3-5 year planning and, if consented, 5-10 year construction periods Issues being addressed: - strategic case for Severn power compared with alternatives, and in what timescale (2020/2050…?) - impacts and benefits, and balance between the two? - costs and risks, who bears them, legal compliance - preferred scheme/s? Multiple options under consideration

Map of 10 originally- proposed options

5 Short-listed schemes … Following 2009 public consultation… Beachley Barrage (625 MW, £2.3bn construction cost) Shoots Barrage (1.05 GW, £3.2bn) Cardiff-Weston Barrage (8.6 GW, £20.9bn) Welsh Fleming Lagoon (1.36 GW, £4bn) Bridgwater Bay Lagoon (1.36 GW, £3.8bn cost) … individually, and some potentially in combination

Short listed options

Decisions next year Advice to ministers April 2010, subject to election Public consultation (in addition to one in Jan-April 09) Decision late 2010 – either: - to offer package of support for preferred scheme/s to go ahead, and move to full feasibility work leading to planning application OR - to wait until uncertainties are clearer, and potentially for new technologies to be deployable in the Severn OR - not to support a scheme

Public consultation Issues for consultation – Jan-April Shortlist of scheme options 2.Scope of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) 3.Scope of overall work of feasibility study What replies did we get? Good response – over 730 replies: Lots of views, full range of views How assessing environmental impact? Short-listing – questions on why and how Regional economic DTZ report – assumptions made ?

Government response Explains how scheme options are being considered Confirms shortlist of 5 schemes for impact assessment Confirms £534,000 funding for 3 new Severn Estuary technology schemes (SETS): - Atkins/Rolls Royce: low head barrage - Severn Tidal Fence Consortium – tidal stream - VerdErg: tidal stream array ‘Feedback loop’ – apply learning and shortlist SETS and non-shortlisted schemes if feasibility study criteria met Confirm SEA scope, with minor changes Peer review of DTZ study

Non short-listed Schemes Apply learning and short-list if feasibility criteria are met Embryonic Schemes Develop and assess via SETS. Short-list if feasibility criteria are met. Consider in study conclusions if not. Short-listed schemes Feasibility study conclusions Developing evidence base/ optimisation of scheme design and operation Consideration of scheme options – feedback loop

Embryonic technologies 3 schemes being funded: less environmentally damaging/cost effective? Low head barrage – Rolls Royce/Atkins –‘low head’ barrage with new types of turbine than traditional barrage design –Draws on both tidal stream and range technology –Tides held back for less time = should reduce potential impact on intertidal/fish Severn tidal fence – Severn tidal fence Consortium -Tidal stream array -Does not hold back water to generate electricity – turbines use movement of water rather than height difference Severn tidal fence - VerdErg -Radical new fence design using tidal stream technology – water passes through tubes that in turn drive turbines - Minimal moving parts – potentially less damage to fish and intertidal habitat

Wider context Government’s Low-carbon Transition Plan and Renewable Energy Strategy Aim: 40% low carbon electricity, 30% renewables by renewable electricity - mainly offshore wind - Severn tidal power?? Depends on wind – plus cost of energy, certainties, impacts, cost and risk Longer term: - 80% decarbonisation electricity supply by Demand will rise - include mix of renewables, nuclear, carbon capture and storage - Severn tidal power?? More work needed on longer term, also on Severn power options

Work areas… Economic & Commercial Strategic and economic case Impact assessment Risk assessment and risk management Subsidy mechanism, public role & costs, delivery timescale Transfer of risk – public vs private? Timing implications Cost – environment, compensatory measures Affordability / impact on consumers Regional economic impact

Environmental studies (more detail later) Gathering evidence for Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of environmental and regional impacts – report in 2010 Impacts on flooding, birds, fish, other habitats and species, water quality, geomorphology (shape of estuary and moving sediments) Series of technical workshops in the autumn comprising specialists to advise on the SEA studies Environmental legislation – can we comply? Studies include Habitats Directive, Water Framework Directive Ecosystem valuation report – to illustrate the value of the environment to society, in monetary terms All part of consultation in 2010

Technical & Engineering -Optimisation of shortlisted barrages and lagoons – getting best out of options against different feasibility study objectives (cost, environmental impact, amount of energy) -Mitigation against environmental damage: cross-checking against SEA impacts -Grid Study -Supply Chain Study -Severn Estuary Embryonic Technology Schemes assessment

Regional impact assessment Commissioned independent peer reviewer to look at DTZ report (strategic-level assessment of economic and social impact) in light of public consultation comments Conclusions of review expected this Autumn SEA, supply chain study and ecosystems valuation work contribute to picture on regional impact Will take a view on whether more work is necessary after peer review

Regulatory overview: assessment of compliance with relevant regulations and policies Assessment of various potential consenting procedures Analysis of the methodology of consenting compensatory habitats Analysis of risk and who bears it Timeline Planning And Consents

Engaging stakeholders & public Public consultation Jan-April 2009 Regular stakeholder meetings, multilateral and bilateral SEA workshops for technical experts Sciencewise public dialogue sessions: –Intended to provide early view on priority issues for people and how best to communicate information in the consultation –Small scale meetings for invited members of the public Information on DECC website and regular bulletins Encouraging organisations to communicate to your stakeholders Public consultation (likely to be in 2010) –Include public meetings on both sides of the Estuary

Environmental studies (more detail) Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) – high-level social and environmental impacts – a requirement of large project plans. Majority of scientific evidence base. Pre-consultation – high-level. May09 – Jan10 – more detailed. Engaging stakeholders: Decc environmental workstream (Environment Agency, Natural England, Countryside Council for Wales, Defra, Welsh Assembly Govt), SEA Steering Group (NGOs, regional interests incl. Bristol Port), individual stakeholder meetings

High level environmental issues Environmental benefit - annual saving of up to 11Mt CO 2. Range of effects on estuarine, marine and freshwater ecosystems. Studies on the value of the services they provide – eg fishing, flood defence, aggregates. Severn Estuary, River Wye and River Usk (and beyond) – protected international importance for their biodiversity. Compliance with Habitats Directive, Water Framework Directive, other environmental legislation, policies. Uncertainty in results given short timescales, whether desk or field-based, different specialist opinions.

Impacts? Hydraulics and geomorphology H&G: Shape/ structure of estuary, currents, sediment movements High tidal range = complicated environmental system Sediment deposition in channels, build up on foreshore or erosion, flood risk? Estuary is extreme high energy environment. Removing energy changes environment. Understanding physical response drives many other topics – water quality, flooding, biodiversity; affects engineering Looking at range of potential complex physical scenarios

Other impacts? Reduced tidal range – loss of salt marsh and mudflat habitats. Effects on habitats and their value as flood defence? Flood risk? Birds – displacement, loss of birds from Severn, national effects? Fish and fishing – declines and/or local extinctions? Water quality – salinity, pollutants, temperature. Other sea users – aggregate, other energy production, tourism and recreation. Historic environment/seascape? Navigation?

Environmental studies - SEA SEA ENVIRONMENTAL REPORT Physico-Chemical THEME Hydraulics and Geomorphology Marine Water Quality Freshwater Env. & Assoc. Interfaces Flood Risk and Land Drainage Society & Economy THEME Society &Economy Navigation Other Sea Uses Noise & Vibration Landscape & Historic Env THEME Historic Environment Landscape and Seascape Biodiversity THEME Marine Ecology Ornithology Migratory & Estuarine Fish Terrestrial & Fresh. Ecology Carbon Footprint, Resources & Waste THEME Carbon Footprinting Resources and Waste

Habitats Directive compliance and compensatory measures Following steps laid down in EU Regulations Process: Scoping and Appropriate Assessment on designated sites, assessing for likely significant adverse effects. If so, look to mitigate. Is the project of IROPI? If so, determine feasibility of providing compensatory measures. Investigating feasibility / cost of different types of compensatory measures. E.g. managed realignment for lost mudflat/saltmarsh, impacts on fish. Do not yet know enough to say whether compensatory measures possible for any of the habitats/species lost under short-listed schemes.

2010: Phase 2 public consultation on recommendations Scheme assessment: Individual costs, benefits, risks, impacts of each scheme against key areas identified in study objectives (regional, economic, environmental, regulatory requirements, energy and climate change goals) using quantitative and qualitative data from evidence gathered across feasibility study Decision by Ministers: Stop, wait, go ahead? Response to phase 2 consultation 2009/10 - environment: Results of SEA studies, impact on environmental legislation, ecosystem valuation Strategic case Results of Severn Embryonic Technology Schemes

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