Historical climate and future scenarios Trevor Murdock Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) University of Victoria Canadian Columbia River Forum 27 October 2008

1. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium 2. Variability and historical trends 3. Future projections Outline

Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium  Launched 2005  Focus on regional climate impacts  Application of research to management, planning, and decision-making  Partner with research labs, impacts researchers and regional stakeholders

PCIC Resources  BC Ministry of Environment PICS Endowment PICS Endowment  BC Hydro  BC Ministry of Forests and Range  Communities and others – small projects  10  15 full time staff + post-docs

Support from BC Hydro & BC MOE Climate Overview Project

1. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium 2. Variability and historical trends 3. Future projections Outline

Annual and decadal variability superimposed on climate trends Trend Decadal Annual

El Nino – less precipitation La Nina – more precipitation

El Nino – warmer La Nina – cooler

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) superimposed on ENSO

Cranbrook historical trends: warmer, wetter, more rain, less snow, earlier streamflow, lower peak flow

Cranbrook warming faster than nearby stations ( )

50-yr Temperature Trends

30-yr Temperature Trends

Precipitation ( )

1. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium 2. Variability and historical trends 3. Future projections Outline

Global Climate Models – range of uncertainty Global Climate Models – range of uncertainty Regional Climate Models – inter-regional differences from larger scale changes Regional Climate Models – inter-regional differences from larger scale changes Empirical Downscaling – high resolution elevation correction on temperature Empirical Downscaling – high resolution elevation correction on temperature Projections of future climate change

IPCC AR4 Figure SPM.5 Amount of climate change depends on greenhouse gas emissions

BC Temperature Anomalies from ( ) 15 GCMs solid A2 dash B1 BC projected to warm considerably compared to historical variability

BC 2050s ( ) annual temperature anomalies (°C) from ( ) model baseline. Range from all available AR4 scenarios. EmissionsScenario 10 th percentile 25 th percentile 50 th percentile(median) 75 th percentile 90 th percentile B A All T GCM range T A2-B1 P GCM range P A2-B1 2050s %0% 2080s %3% Temperature (°C) and Precipitation (% of model baseline) uncertainty estimates from GCMs and emissions scenarios 2050s range = uncertainty 2080s more emissions  warmer

Projected warming depends on GCM and emissions scenario Columbia Basin winter and summer from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)

CGCM3 A2 run 4 CRCM run acs & act forced by CGCM3 A2 run 4 RCM adds regional detail unavailable from its driving GCM

Winter temperature increase larger in northern portion of Basin CRCM run acs & act forced by CGCM3 A2 run 4

0-Degree C isotherm almost gone by 2050s (CGCM3 A2 run4)

Increased Growing Degree Days (CGCM3 A2 run4)

Increased suitability for Douglas Fir, decreased suitability for Spruce (average of 5 projections) Summary of results:

Less summer rainfall projected in eastern portion of the Basin CRCM run acs & act forced by CGCM3 A2 run 4

Precipitation: likely winter increase, summer decrease Columbia Basin winter and summer from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)

Climate variability Climate variability Year-to-year variability superimposed on long term Year-to-year variability superimposed on long term effects of El Nino/La Nina large in Columbia Basin effects of El Nino/La Nina large in Columbia Basin Historical trends Historical trends vary spatially, seasonally, and by length of record vary spatially, seasonally, and by length of record winter minimum temperatures particularly milder winter minimum temperatures particularly milder ∆ T and P  components of hydrologic cycle – snowpack, glaciers, streamflow & lake ice ∆ T and P  components of hydrologic cycle – snowpack, glaciers, streamflow & lake ice Projections (2050s) Projections (2050s)  T (1.6°C to 2.3°C)  T (1.6°C to 2.3°C)  winter P (+1% to +13%)  winter P (+1% to +13%)  summer P (-10% to -4%)  summer P (-10% to -4%) GDD, tree species suitability  implications for H 2 0 mgmt GDD, tree species suitability  implications for H 2 0 mgmtSummary

Acknowledgements Financial support, collaboration, review Trends for Biodiversity Matt Austin, BC Ministry of Environment Jenny Fraser, BC Ministry of Environment Richard Hebda, Royal BC Museum Bob Peart, Biodiversity BC Nancy Turner, University of Victoria Climate Overview Doug Smith, BC Hydro Ben Kangasniemi, BC Ministry of Environment Dave Spittlehouse, BC Ministry of Forests Dan Moore, University of British Columbia Stewart Cohen, UBC and Environment Canada Dan Smith, University of Victoria Elaine Barrow, Consultant Sarah Boon, University of Lethbridge Allan Chapman, River Forecast Centre Xuebin Zhang, Environment Canada Doug McCollor, BC Hydro Phil Mote, University of Washington Paul Whitfield, Environment Canada Robin Pike, FORREX (now Ministry of Forests) Forest Science Program Project Forest Investment Account - Forest Science Program Richard Hebda, Royal BC Museum Dave Spittlehouse, BC Ministry of Forests Steve Taylor, Pacific Forestry Centre Vince Nealis, Pacific Forestry Centre Rene Alfaro, Pacific Forestry Centre Tongli Wang, University of British Columbia Kees van Kooten, University of Victoria Andreas Hamman, University of Alberta PCIC Research Associates Kirstin Campbell, Alvaro Montenegro, Alan Mehlenbacher, Clint Abbott, Kyle Ford, Hamish Aubrey PCIC Staff Dilumie Abeysirigunawardena, Katrina Bennett, Dave Bronaugh, Aquila Flower, Dave Rodenhuis, and Arelia Werner

Thank you For more information Trevor Murdock Thank you For more information Trevor Murdock

PCIC Partners

Ice Core Temperature and CO 2 levels past 20,000 yrs Recent CO 2 change comparable to difference between ice age and now

Columbia Basin to warm considerably compared to historical variability BC Temperature Anomalies from ( ) 15 GCMs solid A2 dash B1

CGCM3 A2 run 4 CRCM run acs & act forced by CGCM3 A2 run 4 RCM shows regional differences in projected relative precipitation change

Source Jennifer Penney Clean Air Partnership Complementary mitigation and adaptation (not trade-offs)

From Impacts to Adaptation

From impacts to adaptation The following hydrology-related changes may be expected in British Columbia: Increased atmospheric evaporative demand Altered vegetation composition affecting evaporation and interception Increased stream and lake temperatures Increased frequency and magnitude of storm events and disturbances Accelerated melting of permafrost, lake ice, and river ice Decreased snow accumulation and accelerated snowmelt Glacier mass balance adjustments Altered timing and magnitude of streamflow

From impacts to adaptation

 T & P changes  impacts on drought, landslide, storms, water supply, power generation, infrastructure, health etc.  Integrate adaptation into individual official community plans, departmental & agency plans & programs  Online “planners interface” to climate change information in development. Contact Municipalities can adapt to climate change by mainstreaming climate considerations

PCIC online interface was developed for impacts researchers

 Comprehensive assessments involved:  Analysis of current conditions & stressors  Review of historical climate trends  Regional climate change projections  Case studies of recent extreme weather events  Analysis of likely impacts by sector  Some used formal risk assessment to prioritize risks Source Jennifer Penney Clean Air Partnership Assessment of vulnerabilities, risks, impacts, opportunities

Potential for spruce bark beetle outbreaks in colder areas of range

Future Streamflow

a Trevor Murdock Comparison of Historical Variability and Projected Change Source: PacificClimate.org

Columbia Basin UW/DOE 2.BC Environment RFC Mountain Pine Beetle Study 3.BCH Peace River Basin Climate Change Study VIC Driving Data, Time Series Average 1961 – 1990 Climatology, Precipitation (mm) Projecting streamflow using diagnostic hydrological model (VIC)

 heating & cooling energy cost scenarios for 2080 (Royal BC Museum 2005) Summer cooling baseline high change scenario Winter heating baseline high change scenario  summer cooling  winter heating

Green Buildings rarely consider local climate, and do not consider future climate “increasing the attic space insulation from RSI 7.7 to RSI 9.0 in colder areas of the province (4500 and greater degree days)” Highest energy efficiency over lifespan of buildings can only be achieved by considering reduced winter heating demand, increased summer cooling demand, and changes to precipitation Adaptation & Green Buildings  Greener Buildings