Large Scale Nonstructural Programs - Louisiana’s Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast – 2012 Update Association of State Floodplain Managers San Antonio, Texas May 22, 2012

The problem is big, immediate and of national significance 90% of nation’s outer continental oil and gas 20% of nation’s waterborne commerce 26% (by weight) of commercial fisheries 5 million migratory waterfowl’s winter habitat The solution is first of its kind and comprehensive We can all learn from the process Why Should We be Concerned with Louisiana? 2

Coastal Louisiana is Facing a Crisis – Land Loss Over 1,800 square miles lost since the 1930’s Over 1,700 square miles lost in next 50 years

Coastal Louisiana is Facing a Crisis – Storm Damage Storm Tracks in the Gulf of Mexico Recent Storms Katrina (Aug 2005) Rita (Sept 2005) Gustav (Aug 2008) Ike (Sept 2008) Future Risk (50 years) Estimated Annual Damages between $7.7B and $23.4B Some communities targeted for 100 year protection could experience an increase of up to four feet of flooding in a 100 year event by Year 50 under the moderate scenario. Gulf of Mexico - Historical Storm Tracks

Response: Louisiana’s Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast 5

The Plan Builds on Other Efforts 6

2012 Master Plan Update Provides New Elements 7 Detailed assessment of the future if we take no new action Expanded portfolio of solutions available to coastal residents through nonstructural protection measures Evaluation of hundreds of candidate project ideas Use of innovative tools to identify the best projects and the most effective use of dollars Large scale solutions that address the root causes of land loss and reduce flooding risk for coastal communities Additional guiding objective that reflects the importance of Louisiana’s working coast

Seven Predictive Models 8

2012 Master Plan Development 9 Science & Engineering Board (MP-SEB) Framework Development Team (FDT) Stakeholders CPRA Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority Project Effects Models Technical Advisory Committee Planning Tool Technical Advisory Committee Master Plan Senior Decision Team Master Plan Delivery Team Modeling Workgroups (7)

Flood Protection: Reduce economic losses from storm surge… Natural Processes: Promote a sustainable coastal ecosystem… Coastal Habitats: Provide an array of habitats... Cultural Heritage: Sustain the unique cultural heritage… Working Coast: Promote a viable working coast … Looking 50 Years Out… 10

Identifying Projects 11 Developed projects from existing concept plans 1500 projects reviewed 418 projects evaluated 145 projects in the draft plan Nonstructural concepts had to be developed

1.First, establish risk reduction targets 2.Identify project areas and attributes 3.Develop conceptual projects 4.Evaluate the projects and scenarios Evaluation of Nonstructural Projects 12

Risk reduction targets established for each coastal community to guide investments 500-year protection 100-year protection 50-year protection Focus on economic losses due to flooding of built infrastructure and crops Flood Risk Reduction Across the Coast

Determine population density of census blocks < 1,000 people per square mile = 50 year > 1,000 people per square mile = consider total population Expand census blocks to community limits Determine total population < 3,500 people = 50 year (rural parish area) > 3,500 people and < 75,000 people = 100 year (urbanized area) > 75,000 people = 500 year (metropolitan area) Risk Reduction Targets 14 No guarantee that the level of risk reduction will be achieved.

1.First, establish risk reduction targets 2.Identify project areas and attributes 3.Develop conceptual projects 4.Evaluate the projects and scenarios Evaluation of Nonstructural Projects 16

Each Parish and Community across the coast Projects are typically implemented at local level Each parish and community can be broken down into census blocks for evaluation Project Areas 17

Flood mitigation elevation (how high to floodproof or elevate and when to acquire) Structure classification 4 classes of residential 4 classes of nonresidential Participation rate Project costs Unit cost by class, square footage, and elevation Duration of implementation Uncertainty estimates on attributes Nonstructural Project Attributes 18

1.First, establish risk reduction targets 2.Identify project areas and attributes 3.Develop conceptual projects 4.Evaluate the projects and scenarios Evaluation of Nonstructural Projects 19

FEMA Flood Depth 20 Ground elevation from DEM Census Block Centroid FEMA Base Flood Elevation (FBFE) Census Block Centroid FEMA flood depth NOTE: Base Flood Elevations obtained from current effective FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps

Nonstructural projects consist of: Nonresidential flood proofing (0 – 3 feet) Residential flood proofing (0 – 3 feet) Elevation of residential structures (3 – 18 feet) Acquisition of residential structures (> 18 feet) Each project has two versions Elevate homes to BFE + 1 feet Elevate homes to BFE + 4 feet Based on FEMA Flood Depth 21

Project Concept 22 One mitigation technique per census block Multiple census blocks per community

1.First, establish risk reduction targets 2.Identify project areas and attributes 3.Develop conceptual projects 4.Evaluate the projects and scenarios Evaluation of Nonstructural Projects 23

Various landscape conditions Wide range of possible storms (720 storms) Surge and Wave models (ADCIRC): Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model Models Used to Estimate Annual Damage

Nonstructural implementation costs and residual damages calculated at census block level Reported for communities and parishes Nonstructural projects compared with other protection projects Which project or combination of projects achieves greatest progress towards target Compare Results to Targets 25 Elevated Residential House Being Constructed in Gentilly, Build Now NOLA

Progress towards Risk Reduction Target 26

EAD Reduction vs. Project Cost 27

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Programmatic measures not evaluated in planning tool, but included in Master Plan Nonstructural program coordination and communication Regulatory actions Funding and support initiatives Education and training programs Do not recreate the problem…. Nonstructural Programmatic Measures 30 Levee Failure in New Orleans, USACE

High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) More data is needed Costs (especially floodproofing) Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) Effectiveness of programmatic measures Impact on historic structures Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there…. Lessons Learned to Date: 31

High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) More data is needed Costs (especially floodproofing) Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) Effectiveness of programmatic measures Impact on historic structures Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there…. Lessons Learned to Date: 32

High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) More data is needed Costs (especially floodproofing) Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) Effectiveness of programmatic measures Impact on historic structures Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there…. Lessons Learned to Date: 33

High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) More data is needed Costs (especially floodproofing) Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) Effectiveness of programmatic measures Impact on historic structures Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there…. Lessons Learned to Date: 34

High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) More data is needed Costs (especially floodproofing) Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) Effectiveness of programmatic measures Impact on historic structures Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there…. Lessons Learned to Date: 35

High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) More data is needed Costs (especially floodproofing) Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) Effectiveness of programmatic measures Impact on historic structures Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there…. Lessons Learned to Date: 36

High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) More data is needed Costs (especially floodproofing) Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) Effectiveness of programmatic measures Impact on historic structures Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there…. Lessons Learned to Date: 37

Draft 2012 Master Plan Timeline Early January: Draft 2012 Coastal Master Plan posted on-line, hard copies available upon request January : Public meeting February 25: Public comment period ends March 21: Meeting of the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority to review and approve final plan Early April: 2012 Master Plan submitted to Louisiana Legislature Where is CPRA in the process? 38

Questions Michèle Deshotels, Coastal Resource Scientist Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (225) Harold E. Clarkson, PE, CFM Brown and Caldwell (803)

BFE ,000 floodproofed 57,000 elevated 250 acquired 150,250 total mitigated Costs $21 B, Budget $10.2 B Damage 100 year $23 B 40

41 Photo Citations Slide No. – Title, Photographer 12 – No Title, CPRA 13 – Camp in Barataria Bay near East Grande Terre, CPRA 21 – UNK 24 – Aerial View of Mississippi River and New Orleans, CPRA 25 – Elevated Residential House Being Constructed in Gentilly, Build Now NOLA 30 – Levee Failure in New Orleans, USACE 32 – Concrete Wall Project, USACE 39 – Framework Development Team, CPRA