Community Modeling Discussion Grand Ballroom 5:00 – 6:30 Today Summer Workshop – June 22, 2008 Sunday after CEDAR and before GEM/Shine in Zermatt, Utah What is our vision for a community space weather modeling program? Contact organizing committee: Tim Fuller-Rowell, Joe Huba, Jon Linker, Terry Onsager, Aaron Ridley, Chris Russell, Mike Wiltberger The space weather community has been asked by NSF to discuss and make recommendation on a possible future community modeling program.

Space Weather Prediction – Highest Priority Needs Customer Requirements Major Space Weather Product Categories High Priority Need: One-Day Advanced Prediction Goal for Today’s Session and Follow-on Activities W. Murtagh and T. Onsager NOAA SWPC Focus of this session: One-day advanced prediction

© ISO New England Inc Procedure: Implement Solar Magnetic Disturbance Remedial Action Process Name: Implement Emergency Operations Procedure Number: RTMKTS Revision Number: 6 Procedure Owner: Steve Weaver Effective Date: March 29, 2005 Approved By: VP Operations Review Due Date: January 1, Discontinue maintenance work and restore out of service high voltage transmission lines. Avoid taking long lines out of service. 2. Maintain system voltages within acceptable operating range to protect against voltage swings. 3. Review the availability of the Chester SVC and Orrington capacitor banks to respond to voltage deterioration if necessary. 4. Adjust the loading on Phase 1 or Phase II, the Cross Sound Cable and Highgate HVdc ties to be within the 40% to 90% range of nominal rating of each pole. 5. Reduce the loading… Station 3 Gen Transformer 4, GIC damage – ESKOM, Oct 2003 Requirements Electric Utilities

User Requirement Timeliness Customer Rationale ELECTRIC UTILITIES K-7 Geomagnetic Storm Warnings Minutes to hours Operators want as much lead time as possible, but any lead time is considered useful North America Electricity Reliability Corp. (NERC) Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) If the index is K-7 or higher, MISO notifies all NERC reliability coordinators concerning the level and expected duration of the event. These forecasts are shared with all power system groups in North America so those power systems that are particularly susceptible to GIC can institute preventive procedures Geomagnetic Storm Warnings/Watches 1-2 days >50% accuracy Various Power Companies Allows maintenance procedures that shut down some facilities to be rescheduled, thus maintaining the full reserve for emergency situations. Geomagnetic Storm Warnings (K-5 through K-9) 2-3 hours >80% accuracy Various Power Companies Bring reserve or maintenance generation on line Geomagnetic Storm Warnings (K-5 through K-9) minutes >90% accuracy Various Power Companies Reduce loading: use more conservative margins

Communications SatCom and VHF communications are limited over the Pole – HF becomes primary Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR ) – requires continuous communications Geomagnetic storms and solar radiation storms can result in prolonged periods (days) of degraded HF communications HF Communication only Requirements Aviation Radiation Exposure A big concern for many Airlines have introduced restrictions on polar route due to this increased radiation FAA have issued “advisory” (no mandates)

AVIATION User Requirement Timeliness Customer Rationale Forecasts (text or graphics) of radiation storms at energy levels that could create a radiation hazard for aircrew and passengers 6, 12, and 18 hours AirlinesForecasts need to be early enough to plan a crew change (for a stop in route) and/or flight- plan. 18 hours is best but a lesser lead time will still aid in the decision making Nowcasts (text or graphic) of radiation storms at energy levels that could create a radiation hazard for aircrew and passengers Near real-time (<30 minutes) AirlinesWill enable mitigation procedures to reduce dose during extreme radiation storms Graphical forecast product to include intensity, onset and duration, and boundary of degraded communicated areas for Polar routes 12 to 24-hours Updated every 6 hours FAA NavCanada (Air Traffic Control) Airlines Accurate predictions will help with route selection and management, emergency response, and other critical decision making processes at the control centers

Deep-sea drilling operations Surveying companies - land surveying, topographic work, etc. FAA navigation systems Various DoD operations - Aircraft operations, weapon systems Precision Farming - Pinpoint locations where changes in watering, fertilization or weed control are necessary Fastest growing customer base Many “unsophisticated” users Currently rely heavily on geomagnetic K-index >K5 is level of concern Graphical products being introduced Requirements GPS Space Weather is single biggest source of error!

Forecasts of ionospheric total electron content >1 hourGNSS location systems Radar systems. (civil and military) Drilling operations Surveying Navigation systems Accurate predictions of a disturbed ionosphere will ensure GNSS systems users postpone or modify operations dependant on precision measurements Geomagnetic Kp and Ap Forecasts Hours to daysSurveyingUsed for planning and scheduling work. If activity is expected they consider rescheduling the survey so as to avoid erroneous survey results GNSS and NAVIGATIONAL APPLICATIONS User Requirement Timeliness Customer Rationale

High-energy electrons cause satellite charging  Orbit maintenance using electric propulsion must be planned and executed with knowledge of this charging LM A2100 GEO Communications Satellite Requirements Spacecraft Operations Satellite launch vehicles have a launch red line condition of 100 pfu at > 50 MeV Operations Centers put spacecraft or instruments in safe mode, or will curtail operations and limit station-keeping maneuvers  Proton and geomagnetic storm requirements vary by customer

SATELLITE OPERATIONS User Requirement Timeliness Customer Rationale Forecasts of hazardous environments affecting operational satellite systems. Energetic particle events and geomagnetic storm conditions of varying intensities >1-2 daysSatellite operators (civil and military) Enables preventative measures to be accomplished and recovery procedures prepared. Spacecraft vulnerabilities vary. F10 Kp and Ap indices Forecasts and observations Current values Daily forecasts 3-day forecasts 27-day forecasts NASAEssential in meeting the orbit determination accuracy requirements for NASA missions, where they routinely determine the orbit to within 20 meters. Predicted values allow for accurate orbit predictions that are required for mission planning and scheduling. Prediction and specification of >50 MeV protons Two days before launch to four minutes before launch. Satellite launch companies Launch teams cause single-word multiple upsets in the rocket control circuitry during launch. They monitor the proton flux closely and hold launch if >100 PFU at > 50 MeV. Warnings of severe events more than 1 day ahead allow for a planned launch delay.

Reliable forecasts of no solar activity of interest—i.e., all-clear forecasts. 95% Accuracy Avoid 95% of SPEs 3 – 7 DayNASA International space agencies Commercial space providers Higher confidence in exposure forecast Greater EVA scheduling flexibility Greater mission schedule assurance An all-clear forecast following a major SEP event or geomagnetic storm so that normal operations can be resumed. (Reliability TBD) As NeededNASA International space agencies Commercial space providers Higher confidence in exposure forecast Greater EVA scheduling flexibility Greater mission schedule assurance NASA and DEEP SPACE OPERATIONS Onset time for a SEP event 30 MeV up to MeV 10 to 12 hour forecast prior to a likely event NASA International space agencies Commercial space providers Higher confidence in exposure forecast Greater mission schedule assurance

Space Weather Product Categories Long lead-time forecasts (1 to > 3 days) Short-term warnings (notice of imminent storm) Alerts and Specifications (current conditions) X-ray flares Solar energetic particle events Geomagnetic storms Ionospheric disturbances Radiation belt enhancements Neutral density disturbances

Current Capabilities

What Progress Has Occurred in One-Day Prediction of: Solar Flares X-ray Flux Solar Energetic Proton Flux Geomagnetic Activity Radiation Belt Flux Ionospheric/Neutral Atmosphere Disturbances -How good are we? -What are the most important next steps? -How will we measure our progress?

Questions?

What should our next steps be? Provide metrics of current capabilities (SWPC) Select one specific area for model comparison -Flare and CME eruption time and magnitude -Solar proton event onset time and magnitude -CME arrival time and storm strength -Radiation belt electron level -Ionospheric storm onset and magnitude Organize model comparison Publish and present results Consider transition to operational product