International Conference on Food Security in Drylands Doha November Water-Related Risks and Opportunities for Foreign Direct Investments in Africa Holger Hoff Stockholm Environment Institute Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

A new global freshwater assessment Blue water availability per capita Gerten et al 2011

Blue plus green water availability per capita A new global freshwater assessment Gerten et al 2011

A new global freshwater assessment Change in blue plus green water availability per capita – climate change A2, 2080, ensemble mean

A new global freshwater assessment Crop water productivities (m 3 water required for producing 1000 kcal under current crop mix and management ! productivity gradient along the Nile basin !

A new global freshwater assessment Water-limited food self sufficiency potential Gerten et al 2011

largely semi-arid savanna systems Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa UNEP 2004 only about 10% of rainfall becomes blue water (runoff and groundwater) very little of that blue water is tapped for agriculture or other purposes

high variability and uncertainty about rainfall and seasonal water availability Brown et al > need for additional water storage and irrigation Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa variability and uncertainty are projected to increase with climate change (Hansen et al 2012) CoV monthly rainfall

Lack of blue water storage (and other water infrastructure) Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa Grey et al > need for additional water storage and irrigation

< 5% of agriculture is irrigated (compared to about 40% in South Asia) FAO 2004 Water situation in Sub-Saharan Africa -> need for additional water storage and irrigation

Water situation in the Nile basin Green water availability per capita per subbasin based on CPWF data

Water situation in the Nile basin Green water availability per capita per subbasin based on CPWF data

Crop (water) productivity in the Blue Nile basin again: large productivity gradient -> win-win basin-wide solutions

Effects of climate change: upper Blue Nile discharge Lopez 2012

FDI risks – Ethiopia / Blue Nile Bossio et al 2012

water effects often downstream (different from land impacts) most significant effects in the dry season when river flow is lowest, but irrigation demand peaks Our estimate of contracted areas: 1.76 million ha if fully irrigated, annual runoff in the Blue Nile may drop by 5-20 % Land Matrix estimate: 3-6 million ha FDI risks – Ethiopia / Blue Nile Bossio et al 2012

investment / knowledge / technologies / are urgently needed, adapted to local conditions, providing local benefits FDI opportunities: sustainable intensification of irrigated AND rainfed agriculture RWH, Malesu, 2009Water spreading weirs, GIZ, 2012 “Large-scale farming is in most cases unlikely to be the most appropriate avenue for the commercialization of African agriculture” from: Awakening Africa‘s Sleeping Giant World Bank 2009

investment / knowledge / technologies / are urgently needed, adapted to local conditions, providing local benefits as well as other inputs and interventions, e.g. integrated fertilizer & pest management, „green agriculture“ solutions not only large-scale blue water infrastructure, but also scalable interventions across the green-to-blue spectrum, e.g. rainwater harvesting and storage, spreading weirs, etc FDI opportunities: sustainable intensification of irrigated AND rainfed agriculture RWH, Malesu, 2009Water spreading weirs, GIZ, 2012 Thank you !