The Annual National Policy Dialogue 19 November 2009 POVERTY MONITORING GROUP

PlusesMinuses Relatively high growthSlow poverty reduction A fall in UnemploymentPrimarily in small informal business with low earnings and productivity. High underemployment Improved net secondary school enrolment, attendance and literacy (64% in 2001 to 66 % in 2007) Slight drop in net primary enrolment since Risk of many youth being left behind Continued drop in IMR & under-5 mortalityDrop in coverage of DPT-Hb3 (93% in 2004 to 83% in 2007), Improvement in life expectancy (53 (m )& 56 (w)) High maternal mortality (births taking place at home remain high) Improved food self-sufficiency. Drop in malnutrition High prevalence of stunting Drop in HIV prevalenceDownward trend in access to clean and safe water

TANZANIA’S RELATIVE STANDING IN HDI IN KEY AREAS COMPARISON OF RELATIVE PROGRESS IN HDI

Poverty Line AchievementsTargets 2000/ MKUKUTA (2010) MDG (2015) Basic Needs PovertyMainland Rural Urban Food Poverty

 Little change in consumption levels since 2001  Extremely low consumption levels  98% of Tanzanians consume less than Tsh 30,000 (2001 prices) and Tsh 58,000 in 2007 prices  80% consume less than Tsh 20,000 (38,600 in 2007 prices)

Wealth Quintile 2000/012007% change Poorest Quintile 3,9783,895 -2% 2 nd 6,5516,660 2% 3 rd 9,1639,490 4% 4 th 12,97213,635 5% Least Poor Quintile 26,05627,836 7% Tanzania Mainland 9,99710,470 5%

 Caloric intake increased marginally since 2001  25% of the population do not consume enough to carryout even light work  50% do not consume enough to carryout heavy work

Stunting (height-for- age below - 2SD) Underweight (weight-for- age below - 2SD) Wasting (weight-for- height below - 2SD) 1999 Mainland44.00%29.50%5.30% Urban Rural /5 Mainland 38.00%21.90%2.90% Urban Rural

 Not a famine prone country. Food production can meet the demand (SSR=104%)  But several regions are food insecure: Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Lindi, Manyara, Mara, Mtwara, Shinyanga, Singida and Tabora (Rapid vulnerability survey (2008)  In total 20 districts have been identified as having food shortages in 2007/08, the lowest number since 2002/03

Key issuesUnderlying factors Heavy reliance on agriculture for livelihood 75% of the population depends on agriculture. An increasing number of people has to share a smaller pie Agriculture growth 4.4% during , while population growth over 3% in rural areas Low productivity (and low income earning potential) 95% of food is grown under traditional rain –fed agriculture. Informal agricultural sector has growth from 37% of GDP to 40% since 1998 Over reliance on primary agriculture (limited or no value addition) Low fertility soils, minimal use of productive farm inputs, pre- and post harvest crop losses Weak rural infrastructure (irrigation, roads, electricity, marketing) Barriers for private investments (business licensing, registration, import/export procedures ) Lack of opportunities elsewhereLack of education and skills prevents rural people from moving out agriculture to other lucrative sectors Limited space for non-farm activities (knowledge, credit, marketing), specially for the poorest

Income from non-farm self-employment Quintile2000/ % hhmean% hhmean% change Poorest , , nd , , rd , , th , , Least Poor , , Dar es Salaam , , Other urban , , Rural , , Tanzania Mainland , ,

 Substantial gains in education. But quality of education and lack of skilled workers are becoming constraints  High pupil/teacher ratios (54:1)  Negative perception (school is useless/uninteresting, Dar 24%)  Falling cohort completion rate (78% in 2006 to 62.5% in 2008)  One in five pupils not attending school at any given time  Falling transition rate from Standard VII to Form 1 (67.5 % in 2006 to 51.6% in 2008)  Only a quarter of candidates pass basic mathematics at the Form 4 exam  Drop (26%) in the number of grads in technical and vocational education and training (BEST 2009)

WAKE UP and THINK BIG

GROWTH EQUITY PRIVATE SECTORPUBLIC SECTORPPP

IssueRequired Policy Actions Inadequate private investment Provide an enabling business environment: Remove barriers to private investment (simplifying business licensing, registration, import/export procedures) Remove controls on ownership rights (land), NTBs such as customs and admin procedures Address infrastructure issues (e.g. energy and transport) Develop the financial market and credit culture Improve quality of labour/public service Maintain macroeconomic stability Improve transparency/governance

IssueRequired Policy Actions Low agricultural productivity Developing markets Provision of rural infrastructure (irrigation, rural roads, electricity, communications, and marketing facilities) Provision of farm inputs (fertilizer, credit, seeds) Address crop losses (storage, transport, packaging) Promote the use of modern technology Heavy reliance on agriculture Promote non-farm activities/value addition Facilitate migration out of agriculture to other sectors through education, skills development and urban planning

IssueRequired Policy Actions Inadequate access to basic servicesImprove access to basic services such as health and education services, water and sanitation Inadequate social safety netsTargeted social safety nets for the vulnerable Inadequate attention on cross-cutting issues Mainstream gender and environment into the national development agenda High population growthInterventions to reduce fertility rate, education, empowerment of women and effectively implementing the National Population Policy