IS DEMOCRACY FOR EVERYONE? Larry Diamond Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution Founding Coeditor of the Journal of Democracy CIPE is an affiliate of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and one of the four core institutes of the National Endowment for Democracy

CIPE © 2008 Can every country in the world be democratic? All countries can become democraticAll countries can become democratic Already 60% of all the states in the world can be now considered electoral democracies with free and fair electionsAlready 60% of all the states in the world can be now considered electoral democracies with free and fair elections This share was 25% only 30 years agoThis share was 25% only 30 years ago A number of Muslim-majority countries have achieved democratic governmentsA number of Muslim-majority countries have achieved democratic governments e.g., Indonesia, Senegal, Pakistan, which is returning to democracye.g., Indonesia, Senegal, Pakistan, which is returning to democracy Two out of five poor countries are now democraticTwo out of five poor countries are now democratic

Islam and democracy Islam is not incompatible with democracyIslam is not incompatible with democracy Democracy is prevalent in Muslim-majority countries outside of the Arab LeagueDemocracy is prevalent in Muslim-majority countries outside of the Arab League Arab countries are slower with democracyArab countries are slower with democracy Their lack of democracy goes beyond IslamTheir lack of democracy goes beyond Islam To a large extent, the lack of democracy can be linked to the dependence on oil exportsTo a large extent, the lack of democracy can be linked to the dependence on oil exports CIPE © 2008 There are 23 states in the world that derive most of their export earnings from oil and gas and not a single one is a democracy.

Democracy in Asia China’s economic dynamism is impressiveChina’s economic dynamism is impressive BUT how long can this alternative model of economic success without democracy last?BUT how long can this alternative model of economic success without democracy last? Asian democracy in the long-termAsian democracy in the long-term 30 years from now India is likely to maintain the same political institutions30 years from now India is likely to maintain the same political institutions BUT China’s political system is likely to see changes due to popular expectationsBUT China’s political system is likely to see changes due to popular expectations China can change either incrementally or drasticallyChina can change either incrementally or drastically CIPE © 2008

The changes underway in China The rise of independent business associations and other kinds of civil society organizations in Southern ChinaThe rise of independent business associations and other kinds of civil society organizations in Southern China Top members of China’s new influential “capitalist class” accept the Communist ruleTop members of China’s new influential “capitalist class” accept the Communist rule BUT mid-level and smaller entrepreneurs want less corruption and more transparencyBUT mid-level and smaller entrepreneurs want less corruption and more transparency Growth of pluralism and civil societyGrowth of pluralism and civil society Environmental groupsEnvironmental groups Human rights groupsHuman rights groups Religious groupsReligious groups CIPE © 2008

A democratic world – how do we get there? The trends so far are very positiveThe trends so far are very positive Growth in the number of democracies, as well as their stability and rootednessGrowth in the number of democracies, as well as their stability and rootedness Latin America, Korea, IndonesiaLatin America, Korea, Indonesia A world of democracies will take decades of reforms in many areas:A world of democracies will take decades of reforms in many areas: Economic policies and growthEconomic policies and growth Government structuresGovernment structures Global values and normsGlobal values and norms CIPE © 2008

Global spread of democratic norms There is growth of democratic norms in international covenants and charters Democracy is codified in the Charter of the Organization of American States and the new Charter of the African Union Even authoritarian governments try to mask their practices with a veneer of democracy The international community should persist in peacefully supporting movements for democracy around the world CIPE © 2008 Democracy continues to be the only truly legitimate form of government.