We routinely observe the Tropical Pacific to forecast El Niño/La Niña and their influence on climate

Courtesy of: Rosanna M. Sumagaysay, NASA/JPL Physical Oceanography DAC Sea Surface Height and Temperature Anomalies: Dec 96 - Feb 99

We established an operational in situ ENSO Observing System in 1997 We have an ongoing operational satellite surface temperature capability We will have continuing observations of sea surface topography from the Jason-1 altimeter mission in 2000

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Mid-Nov Forecast (top) Observations (bottom) Courtesy: NOAA’s Climate Forecast Center PRECIPITATION Dec98/Feb99

Examples of the Influence of Climate on Weather Patterns La Nina and Events in 1998/99 Courtesy of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

Global Precipitation Anomalies Forecast (above) & Observed (below) for the 1997/98 El Nino Courtesy of David Anderson ECMWF

But phenomena in addition to ENSO influence our climate: -- Pacific Decadal Oscillation -- Arctic Oscillation -- Indian Ocean Dipole -- Antarctic Circumpolar Wave which we need to observe, understand and forecast and the observations must include the subsurface

The Arctic Oscillation

Wintertime Potential Predictability ENSO, PDO & Arctic Oscillation ENSO & Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) PrecipitationSurface Air Temperature

Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Level Pressure Anomalies Courtesy of Warren White, Scripps

Correlation of dominant modes of variability of SST and Precipitation in & around Australia (Based on the analysis of a 40-year record) Courtesy of Warren White, Scripps

Courtesy of Toshio Yamagata, U of Tokyo Correlation between Rainfall and the Indian Ocean Dipole Index

We are at a point in time where we can consider putting it all together for the global oceans: -- satellite and in situ observations -- observations and models -- research and operations

Courtesy of Lakshmi Kantha Colorado U Nowcasts (11/ /25, 1998) Forecasts (thru 1/24/99)

We had a satellite capability to determine surface vector winds for 10 months in 1996/97 We have that capability again with Quickscat (July 1999) and Sea Winds on ADEOS-2 (late 2001)

Hurricane Gert and Tropical Storms Harvey & Hilary Threaten North America Observations from NASA’s Quikscat on Sept 20, 1999 Courtesy of Liu, Xie & Tang, JPL

Courtesy of : Dudley Chelton, OSU Quikscat-derived surface vector winds July 21 to Oct 21, 1999

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Courtesy of Frank Wentz and Chelle Gentemann, RSS

Sea Surface Temperature (deg C) August , 1998 Courtesy of F.J. Wentz, C. Gentemann, D. Smith (Remote Sensing Systems) and D. Chelton (Oregon State University)

For the global oceans, we have: -- satellite coverage of the surface -- communications -- computers and models all capable of operating in near real time However, we lack a complementary in-situ system to observe the subsurface

WOCE Stations and a typical monthly XBT coverage

Argo is the next step in global ocean observations It will complement our existing global satellite capability -- surface temperature -- topography -- vector winds

P rofiling Autonomous Floats ~ $12,000 each ~ 4-yr design life t & s profiles real-time positioning & communications deploy from ships of opportunity These are oceanic analogues to radiosondes used in operational meteorology

Indian Ocean Float 1000-m depth 25-day steps Jan 95 - Dec 98 Courtesy of Breck Owens, WHOI & Russ Davis, SIO

Labrador Sea Float Trajectories 600 & 1400 m 10-day steps Jan 97 - Dec 98 Courtesy of Breck Owens, WHOI & Russ Davis, SIO

Mixed Layer Depth Deepest Blue 1,000 m or more 10-day steps Jan 97 - Dec 98 Courtesy of Breck Owens, WHOI & Russ Davis, SIO

Real Time, Open Access to Argo Data All 190 floats in the North Atlantic during December, 1998 reported temperature profiles in real time via the GTS

Typical global coverage with 3,000 Argo floats

Recent Chronology National Oceanographic Partnership Program established International Year of the Ocean 6/98 -- National Ocean Conference 8/98 -- Congressional Hearing on Ocean Observations 4/99 -- Initial NOPP Report on an Integrated, Sustained Ocean Observing System 7/99 -- WMO/IOC endorsed Argo 10/99 -- ‘OceanObs99’ Conference in St Raphael 2/00 -- Second NOPP Report in press

U.S. Funding Status: -- President Clinton committed $12M over 3 years for 1/3 of the global array -- $1M start-up proposal funded in FY-99 for ~50 floats/year -- Funding via National Oceanographic Partnership Program -- $3M of new funds are available in FY-00 for ~120 floats/year

U.S. Funding Status (continued): -- The $3M is contingent on other countries sharing the funding for Argo floats -- Expressions of interest from Australia, Canada, E.C., France, Germany, Japan, South Korea & U.K.

Argo is one element of a comprehensive international system for observing the global oceans -- Global Eulerian Observatories -- GODAE ( ) -- CLIVAR: ACVE & PBECS -- GOOS/GCOS

Proposed Global Eulerian Observations Courtesy of Bob Weller, WHOI

Why a Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment ? Opportunities: maturity of satellite and in-situ observing systems make real-time global observations feasible advances in scientific knowledge (e.g. TOGA, WOCE) and our ability to model the global ocean and assimilate data a good time to mount a demonstration of feasibility and practicality Needs: user demand for global ocean products for a variety of applications--including scientific research building a permanent, well-supported ocean observing system requires convincing demonstrations The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999

GODAE Objective: operational Objective: Provide a practical demonstration of real-time, global ocean data assimilation for operational oceanography The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999 To apply state-of-the-art ocean models & assimilation methods for: -- short-range open-ocean forecasts -- boundary conditions for coastal forecasts -- initial conditions for climate forecast models To provide global ocean analyses and re-analyses to improve our: -- understanding of the oceans -- assessments of the predictability of ocean systems -- the design & effectiveness of the global ocean observing system

GODAE Requirements - in-situ The existing global, in-situ observing system is clearly inadequate for GODAE. The development of an appropriate network must take into account the complementarity of satellites and in-situ systems: -- vertical structure from in-situ data -- broad surface coverage from satellites -- different sampling and measurement schemes -- calibration/validation of satellites with in-situ data Argo was designed to meet this need. It will provide the primary global data for GODAE, complementing existing operational and experimental systems. Argo: a GODAE/CLIVAR project The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999

From Mark Trail, September 26, 1999

For further information, contact: Dr. Stan Wilson, Deputy Chief Scientist U.S. National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration ;