International Seminar of Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators Moscow, 17-19 November 2010 BTS in the Agricultural Sector in Ukraine Maryna Pugachova.

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International Seminar of Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators

Presentation transcript:

International Seminar of Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators Moscow, November 2010 BTS in the Agricultural Sector in Ukraine Maryna Pugachova Scientific & Technical Complex for Statistical Research of State Statistics Committee of Ukraine

BTS in Ukraine Since 1997 (quarterly): industry; constructions; retail trade; transport; agriculture; investment survey. Since non-financial services sector

Organizers: Scientific & Technical Complex for Statistical Research; State Statistics Committee of Ukraine (SSCU).

Our functions are: adopting of methodology; designing of the questionnaires; treatment of data (scanning & completion data base); preparing different analytical reviews (news releases for Internet site, reports for respondents, bulletins for government).

SSCU functions are: forming the samples in regions in accordance with our methodological recommendations; distribution of questionnaires blanks; collecting of completed questionnaires; checking of the codes in questionnaires.

Sampling On the basis of information concerning enterprises from: administrative & statistical registers; some statistical forms.

Criteria 1) kinds of activity: cattle-breeding, plant-growing, mixed agriculture; 2) size of enterprise must be more then 50 employed peoples.

3 sets of questions Constant questions (including in each survey). Special questions concerning of Ukrainian problems (regular – on the short period or irregular). Special questions concerning separate phenomenon (occurrences): situation with investment on enterprises, creating of the groups of enterprises, shadow activity etc. (often regular: 1 or 2 times a year for a few consecutive years).

Main indicators & main tendencies Change in the current / next quarter in relation to the previous: upsamedown Production output, kind:cattle-breeding plant-growing Volume of sales: in Ukraine: cattle-breeding plant-growing exports cattle-breeding plant-growing Prices of products cattle-breeding plant-growing Labor productivity cattle-breeding plant-growing

Demand in ІIІ quarter 2010 meatmilk poul try eggs fodder crops food crops normal : insufficient due to : Low quality of products high price as a result of high internal production cost competition from analogous domestic products competition from analogous imported products

Some other indicators Set 1 Financial & economic performance (level & changes in the current / next quarter); Competition from analogous products in the current quarter in relation to the previous one; Bottlenecks.

Some other indicators Set 2 Assessment of government policies in this year with respect to stimuli for agricultural production (level); Competition on Ukrainian market with Ukrainian and foreign enterprises (level); Where agricultural production (of the enterprises) is realized (markets); Output of the raw materials for production of biofuel (yes/no); Drawing up of the lax government credits (yes/no).

Some other indicators Set 3 Competition with analogous products (changes); Investment (changes); Investment limitations (%); Directions of using investment (%).

Leading indicator for agriculture

BTS users Kinds of publications Publications for analysts Short analytical report Report for chiefs Press-release in mass media & Internet Work-shops, conferences Economists, analysts, researchers Respondents of BTS Managers in business Top-managers in government Politicians Mass media Public Type of publications & categories of BTS users

Thank you for the attention!