SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 NOAA/NCEP African Desk Product Surfing Presented by Hamza Kabelwa Prepared by Richard H. Grumm Contributions by Vadlamani.

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Presentation transcript:

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 NOAA/NCEP African Desk Product Surfing Presented by Hamza Kabelwa Prepared by Richard H. Grumm Contributions by Vadlamani Kumar NCEP Version 2.0

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Overview NCEP African Desk website –Key entry point: –Products for forecasters tmlhttp:// tml Surfs up tour of products and locations

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 NCEP African Desk Entry Point Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Part of USAID/Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) African Desk Training/Cirriculum Forecast Products and outlooks Key contacts Wassila Thiaw Vadlamani Kumar Enter Via the MAP Our Africa under Special Products

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Test Drive Site for Products Try main entry point Examine text products bulletin Examine use of maps and data+- oaa.gov/products/afric an_desk/cpc_intl/ oaa.gov/products/afric an_desk/cpc_intl/ oaa.gov/products/afric an_desk/cpc_intl/afric a/africa.shtmlhttp:// oaa.gov/products/afric an_desk/cpc_intl/afric a/africa.shtml

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Main Forecaster Real-time data Resources for forecaster Expert Assessments Regional NWP Africa Wide NWP Observations –Analysis –Precipitation Satellite Data –Real-time and precipitatoin estimates

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Links International Jump off point: – n_desk/cpc_intl/ n_desk/cpc_intl/ Main Forecast entry point – n_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtmlhttp:// n_desk/cpc_intl/africa/africa.shtml East Africa tools: – n_desk/cpc_intl/eafrica/eafrica.shtmlhttp:// n_desk/cpc_intl/eafrica/eafrica.shtml

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Weakness and Strength I Higher resolution than the EFS 15 or 27 vs 75 km Typically more skill than our EFS Best at shorter forecast ranges It is an ensemble member in and of itself Has meteorological details Put details often introduce errors!

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Weakness and Strength I  EFS and global models  are too course for features which can really impact the local and regional weather  Smooth out terrain features  Smooth out finer scale features  Flooding and severe weather events are typically meso-  and meso-  features  Finer resolution models and Local Area Models play a valuable role in filling the gaps  Diagnosis of stability can help in many cases

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Weakness and Strength I

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Weakness and Strength I

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Weakness and Strength I

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Weakness and Strength I

SWFDP-Eastern Africa November 2011 Review NCEP African Desk website –Main jump off/entry point: –Products for forecasters tmlhttp:// tml A brief tour of the site was conducted