Transportation Planning and the Land Use Connection Presented to the FDOT and MPOs May 14, 2010 By Paul G. Van Buskirk, Ph. D., AICP,PE Copyright©2010 VanBuskirk,Ryffel and Associates, Inc.

Problems and Issues Land Use Connection A research report for the Jacksonville, Florida Region entitled “Comparing Short Term Traffic Projections With Traffic Counts-The JUATS 2015 Model” prepared for FDOT (Florida Department of Transportation), concluded that having forecasted 2000 demographic and socioeconomic data from a 1990 baseline and then comparing the 2000 Census data that:

Problems and Issues Land Use Connection (con’t) “ For a fast growing urban area in Florida like Jacksonville, the transportation demand models in the past are likely to underestimate the overall number of trips produced since socioeconomic, demographic and employment data may be underestimated…. The difference between the estimated and observed at the zonal level were significant.”

Problems and Issues Land Use Connection (con’t) They found that those TAZs (Traffic Analysis Zones) that were approaching built-out were overestimated and those that were developing were underestimated an average of a 25% variance for a 10- year projection.

Problems and Issues Land Use Connection (con’t) A research report by the University of Washington’s Institute on public policy and Management stated in its executive summary that while much has been written about the transportation/ land use relationship, the more we learn about transportation and land use the worse the traffic jams and the sprawl gets. According to the study the major reason for this apparent negative learning curve is the way we have separated authority for transportation at the state and regional level from the powers of land use at the local level.

Opportunities and Solutions Land Use Connection The Interactive Growth Model™ (IGM) address these disconnects and solves these issues that results in more accurate forecasted demographic and socioeconomic attributes at the zonal level and then for forecasting accurate trip productions.

Opportunities and Solutions Land Use Connection (con’t) The IGM has several sub-models to determine the forecasted demand for and the apportionment of land uses by type and intensity as well as its spatial distribution to mitigate trip lengths and to meet the demands of the characteristics of future populations over time.

Opportunities and Solutions Land Use Connection (con’t) The IGM addresses the disconnect by generating accurate demographic and socioeconomic data at the local level. For example, through an analysis of adopted future land use plans, the IGM can be used to test those plans to identify deficiencies in land uses and lead to suggested adoptive amendments to address those deficiencies and then generate the data for the MPO traffic models for state transportation authorities

THE POPULATION MODEL vs THE INTERACTIVE GROWTH MODEL™ THE POPULATION MODEL vs THE INTERACTIVE GROWTH MODEL™ 1. THE POPULATION FORECAST MODEL PRODUCES THE GROSS, NON-SPATIAL BUILD- OUT POPULATION OF A JURISDICTION OF ANY SIZE IN 5 YEAR INCREMENTS 2.THE INTERACTIVE GROWTH MODEL™(IGM) BY COMPARISON, USES THE GROSS POPULATION FORECAST TO BUILD-OUT AS AN INPUT AND DISTRIBUTES POPULATION SPATIALLY IN 5- YEAR INCREMENTS THOUGHOUT THE JURISDICTION OR STUDY AREA

Accurate Population Forecast Accurate Population Forecast Accurate forecast is a key parameter Methods Cohort ComponentCohort Component ExtrapolationExtrapolation ExponentialExponential Pearl-Reed (Sigmoid)Pearl-Reed (Sigmoid) Historically, population forecasting in South Florida has under estimated growth

8 Key Design Steps For an Interactive Growth Model 1.Accurate Population Forecast 2.Disaggregate Community Into Zones 3.Current Inventory of Development and Demographics by Zones 4.Build out Inventory of Development and Forecast of Demographics by Zones

8 Key Design Steps For an Interactive Growth Model 5.Develop Sub Models 6.Criteria and Formulas For Spatial Distribution of Development Over Time 7.Data Output For 5 Year Increments 8.Graphic Interpretation of Results

Case Study Collier County Problem Western coastal area is developed and the eastern area of 1,900 sq miles is undeveloped. The problem was to accurately determine when and were development by type and intensity would take place, the chacteristics of future populations, and the data for infrastructure planning and traffic forecasting

Case Study Collier County Solution 1. Developed a accurate forecasting model 2. Developed a accurate forecasting model for when and were development would occur, demographics of future populations and allocation of support land uses

Zones are Aggregated by Clusters Immokalee Urbanized Area Rural Lands Stewardship Area (RLSA) Golden Gate Estates Rural Fringe Mixed Use District Urban Residential Fringe District Urban Coast Fringe District Rural Settlement Area Industrial Area Conservation Areas

TAZ Screen 2009 Existing Development mod 1 screen.docx mod 1 screen.docx

Future Land Use Plan and Elements C:\Users\paul\Desktop\DCA rule\b1_5withTAZswhole pdf C:\Users\paul\Desktop\DCA rule\b1_5withTAZswhole pdf

Forecasting Future Development by Districts and Sub-Districts at Build-Out Each parcel in each district and sub-district was queried by zones to determine development yield at build- out based on district or sub-district guidelines, rules and regulations according to the FLUE of the Growth Management Plan.

Example of Development Yield at Build-out RLSA From Historic Data 028,125Agriculture 5,62528,125Baseline 3,95018,8542,633Hamlets/CRD 29,40070,21210,29514 Villages 54,000128,96118,9006 Towns 11,00028,6595,027Ave Maria Dwelling Units Credits Spent AcresDevelopment

TAZ Screen Build Out Development mod2 screen.docx mod2 screen.docx

Demographics and Economic Models Demographics and Economic Models submodel factors taz.docx submodel factors taz.docx

TAZ Model Parameters TAZconstants scenario.docx TAZconstants scenario.docx

Housing Unit Development Schedule 2009 to Build Out mod6devopmentsch.xml

Demand Models mod8submodels.xml

School Facilities modF1schools.xml

Formulated the Build Out Scenario for the RLSA and RFMUD CIGM originally estimated the location of future towns and villages in the RLSA Within a month the coalition of property owners after reviewing the CIGM data, provided to the county the 22 locations where they envision the towns to be located This helped to recalibrate the CIGM and brought clarity to where infrastructure development would be required as the RLSA built out as well to generate ZDATA1 and ZDAT2 for transportation planning

District Nodes with Development Data C:\Users\paul\Desktop\DCA rule\00075_EasternCollierLongRangeTransportation_ _v11_2208.pdf C:\Users\paul\Desktop\DCA rule\00075_EasternCollierLongRangeTransportation_ _v11_2208.pdf

Results for the RLSA 45,00 acres of compact land forecasted to be developed 45,00 acres of compact land forecasted to be developed 100,000 acres of flow ways, natural habitat and water resources forecasted to be preserved at no cost to the county 100,000 acres of flow ways, natural habitat and water resources forecasted to be preserved at no cost to the county Forecasted build out population 210,632 Forecasted build out population 210,632

Population of the Study Area for the CIGM 22, ,867 2,052 21,732 79, ImmokaleeRLSAGGERFMUDOtherTotal , ,632 79,614 34,837 58, ,537 Build-Out

CIGM Results for TAZ Data 2025 Copy of Collier taz 2025.xls Copy of Collier taz 2025.xls

Addition Benefits CIGM Provides the land use modeling and data in the development of the Master Mobility Plan (MMP)

Summary The COLLIER experience does address the concerns of the FDOT’s Jacksonville and the University of Washington's research. The Model with Collier’s future land uses (FLUP) and its guidelines, forecasted future development over time which was integrated with demographic and economic models to produce the demand for facilities for goods and services. The facilities were located to reduce trip lengths and reduce carbon emissions.

Summary The results were a scientifically accurate connection between future land use forecasting at the local government level and the transportation planning at the regional level. The data does not result in a linear extrapolation that over estimates demographic data as a TAZ approaches build out or underestimate data as TAZ’s are undergoing expansion in their early states of development.

Case Study-City of Cape Coral the Problem  pre platted city, land use was 95% residential and little supporting land uses to meet needs of current and future population  long trip lengths-many traveled to Ft Myers for work and shopping.  underestimated population forecast and infrastructure falling behind

Case Study-City of Cape Coral the Solution  Accurate population forecasting  Accurate forecasting of the timing and distribution of development and supported land uses and their facilities to reduce trip lengths, balance the tax base and provide employment opportunities.

Cape Coral Future Land Use Plan FLU Map.pdf FLU Map.pdf

Neighborhood Shopping By Year

Fire Stations By Year & Location

Comp Plan Amendments Needs Analysis LU amendnorthcapeindustrilinstitl esswetlands (2ind50).xlsx LU amendnorthcapeindustrilinstitl esswetlands (2ind50).xlsx

Year2020 Single Family TAZUNITS % NON- PERM & VACANCY % VACANT OCCUPIEDSEASONALVACANTPOP HH SIZE TOTAL AUTO NO AUTO ONE AUTO 2> AUTOS Year2020Multi-FamilyTAZUNITS % NON- PERM & VACANCY % VACANT OCCUPIED SEASONA L VACANTPOP HH SIZE TOTAL AUTO NO AUTO ONE AUTO 2> AUTOS Year2020 TAZ Socio-Economic Data TAZINDUSTRIALEMPLOYEES COMMERCIAL EMPLOYEES SERVICE EMPLOYEES TOTALEMPLOYEES SCHOOL ENROLLMENT HOTEL / MOTEL UNITS

Questions????