1 Earthquake Hazard Update April 21, 2015 NMSZ ROC

Earthquake Risk Factors in the Central US Area is subject to infrequent, large earthquake sequences Low Attenuation = larger damage area compared to similar magnitude quakes in California Most buildings and infrastructural elements were not designed for earthquakes 11 million people live in the New Madrid seismic zone Ground motions at soft soil sites can be amplified significantly Public Awareness is low National impact of widespread infrastructure damage Many socially vulnerable communities exist

Plate Boundaries and Earthquakes Source: USGS

The New Madrid Earthquake Sequence of

New Madrid Earthquake Chronology Since 2000 B.C.

NMSZ Earthquake Probabilities If we consider NMSZ historical earthquake sequences as one event: % chance of a magnitude 6.0 or greater in a 50-year time window 7 – 10% chance of a magnitude 7.0 or greater in a 50-year time window However these sequences actually represent 8, possibly 9, large earthquakes.

Liquefaction near Umedpar, India, 2001

2004 Liquefaction Potential Map 2014 Liquefaction Potential Map

1999 MUSHMP Deterministic Ground Motion2014 MAEHMP Deterministic Ground Motion Seismic Hazard Map Updates

CERI/USGS Seismic Stations

M 5.0, March 25, 1976: A different kind of quake

Magnitude Verification from the 2001 Gujarat Earthquake Source: Sue Hough, USGS

Central US Geology and the Reelfoot Rift Source: USGS

Paleozoic rock Cretaceous sediments Memphis Sand Eocene Memphis Mississippi River floodplain The Geology of the Mississippi Embayment Source: P. Bodin, CERI

Crude, Petrochemical, and Natural Gas Transportation Infrastructure Vulnerability

August 2002 Wolf River Landslide Downtown Memphis

“Estimate” of Economic Losses and Mississippi River Dredging Costs Due to EQ-Induced Landslides Dredging costs $1.1 million per mile = $11 to 22 million in dredging costs Economic loss due to reduction in barge traffic If we assume that 10 dredges would be utilized to clear the main channel of the Mississippi between Cairo, Il and Tunica, MS the River would not be open to barge commerce for approximately 60 days: $2-4 million/day 60 days = $ million in indirect economic losses.

Regional EQ Scenario Results 500,000 buildings at least moderately damaged – 13% of inventory 225,000 buildings beyond repair 15% of manufactured housing at least extensive damage 270 Bridges completely damaged 65% of hospital beds unavailable at Day schools w/complete damage 400K Households w/out Water 1 Million w/out Electric Service ***All figures are approximate and are intended to be used for planning or illustrative purposes only*** ***Based on a NMSZ 7.7 SW Segment event 2:00PM ***

Regional Scenario Results 250,000 Households Displaced 17,000 Hospitalized – Hospitals will be overrun with patients 4,300 Fatalities*** – 1,836 in Katrina – 2,996 on 9/11 $ Billion in building and lifeline losses $70 Billion in building only – Non-Structural Components account for nearly $32 billion in damages ***Based on a NMSZ 7.7 SW Segment event 2:00PM *** ***All figures are approximate and are intended to be used for planning or illustrative purposes only***

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