1 Development of Common Assumptions Common Model Package for the CALFED Surface Storage Investigations Presentation To: California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum by Brian Van Lienden and Robert Leaf, CH2M HILL February 26, 2007

2 Presentation Outline Common Assumptions Background and Accomplishments Overview of Common Model Package Development Common Model Package Review Process The Future of Common Assumptions

3 Common Assumptions Background CALFED To “develop a long-term comprehensive plan that will restore ecological health and improve water management for beneficial uses of the Bay-Delta system” 2000 CALFED ROD Surface Storage Investigations (component of CALFED) Shasta Lake Water Resources Investigation (SLWRI) North-of-the-Delta Off-stream Storage Investigation (NODOS) In-Delta Storage Investigation (IDS) Los Vaqueros Enlargement Investigation (LVE) Upper San Joaquin River Basin Storage Investigation (USJRBSI)

4 Common Assumptions Background Common assumptions was originally developed to help the surface storage projects perform feasibility studies with these purposes in mind: Comply with CEQA, NEPA, P&Gs, CWA/404, ESA, etc. Complete necessary studies and reports Common Assumptions Objectives: Provide a framework for a defensible basis for collaborative decision making regarding surface storage investigations Improve consistency in application of overarching policy decisions Identify common water facilities, operations, management, and regulations Develop and refine a common analytical framework including tools and methods for integrated hydrologic and economic analyses Support application of common policy and analytical framework and ensure quality control

5 Common Assumptions Accomplishments Facilitated Policy Decisions Established important dates and timelines Identified likely future projects/programs in 2030 Developed Analytical Framework Common Model Package Application protocols Economic analysis methods and protocols Characterized and Quantified Water Management Actions Urban water use conservation Agricultural water use efficiency Recycling and desalination Groundwater storage for conjunctive management Water transfers

6 Common Model Package (CMP) Description Consists of a set of analytical tools that can be operated in an integrated manner to perform hydrologic and economic analyses Provides for consistency in application of policy decisions and assumptions about facilities, operations, management, and regulations Supports application and accessibility of analytical tools and enhances quality control Provides a basis for the common reporting of results between different projects

7 CMP Goals All Surface Storage Investigations to use both existing (CEQA) and future (NEPA) conditions for Feasibility Studies Provide cumulative, incremental, and sensitivity analysis capabilities for all surface storage projects Incorporate other characterization and quantification of other CALFED Water Management actions in analyses

8 CMP Development History CMP development began in June 2004 using the OCAP model suite CMP Version 6 core CALSIM II component released June 6, 2006; has been in limited use (research and investigatory analyses) Latest CMP Version 8 in use by more than six investigations (surface storage, OCAP, and others), and use is expanding

9 Conceptual Structure of the CMP Model Metric Inputs Data Assumptions Inputs Protocol Model Metric Model

10 Water resource system (CALSIM II) Economics (LCPSIM, CVPM) Delta flow and salinity (DSM2) Temperature and salmon Sacramento River (Keswick to Red Bluff) (SRWQM_RBDD, SalMod) Trinity, Feather and American Rivers (Reclamation mortality model) Power generation and use CVP (LTGen) SWP (SWP_Power) Component models included in current CMP

11 CMP Integrated Solution Process CALSIM II LCPSIM SRWQM_RBDD DSM2 M&I WQ econ CVPM SalMod LTGEN/SWP Power Reclamation Mortality

12 CMP Accomplishments Period of Record and Level of Development 82-year simulation period of record (1922–2003) 2030 level of development (Sacramento Valley at 2020 level of development) 2004 level of development nearly complete (LCPSIM inputs pending) Delta Delta flow-salinity relationships; updated artificial neural networks (ANNs) DSM2 82-year simulation capability (was 16-year) Martinez boundary condition redeveloped; adjusted astronomical tide normalized for historic sea level rise (normalized to November 1993)

13 CMP Accomplishments New Subsystems Incorporated new San Joaquin River module (with 2004 and 2030 levels of development) Colusa Basin network and hydrology redeveloped (using 2004 and 2020 levels of development) Delta Export Operations Refined south-of-Delta SWP operations (variable delivery patterns) Development and implementation of water transfers operations (integrated CALSIM II–LCPSIM analysis) Incorporation of logic consistent with latest EWA model development (QC review pending)

14 CMP Accomplishments Economics Implementation of LCPSIM Review Team (Common Assumptions Economics Workgroup) recommendations Implementation of Economics Workgroup CVPM recommendations Integration CALSIM II/LCPSIM integrated solution capability (interface and protocol) Enhanced one-directional linkage CALSIM II to CVPM Established protocols and clarified/corrected linkages for all models

15 CMP Accomplishments Surface Storage Incorporated storage project components: NODOS, SLWRI, LVE Future No Project – LVE w/project pending Other Comprehensive documentation and review of all surface water rights, contracts, and other water delivery specifications Restructuring of CALSIM II to allow for more flexible and efficient analysis Extensive quality control effort resulting in hundreds of corrections and clarifications

16 CMP Review Process December 6 internal memo requested joint Reclamation and DWR review of CMP Version 8 Common Assumptions team is supporting agencies in the review process Review is an essential part of the quality control process Agencies’ acceptance at end of review process will result in CMP Version 9 Use of CMP does not need to wait for conclusion of the review process – Version 8 is already being used

17 Schedule for CMP Review Workshops Jan. 8: Introduce CMP and kick off Review Workshops (for study managers and teams) Jan. 18: Analytical framework, Delta requirements and operations, new subsystems (for technical teams) Feb. 15: Economics Workgroup activities (for study managers and teams) Feb. 22: Model integration, water transfers and related model improvements (for technical teams) Mar. 8: Surface storage projects, EWA logic, temperature, salmon, power (for technical teams) Mar 22: TBD Note: Additional workshops will be scheduled as needed.

18 CMP Next Steps The latest CMP Version 8 is in use Review and acceptance process is underway A large amount of information is available, but documentation still under development The next CMP update, Version 9, should be available in spring 2007 Upon completion, the desire is for Version 9 of the CMP to become the new benchmark

19 The Future of Common Assumptions The goal is to wrap up CMP Version 9 and all supporting documentation by the end of the Spring At that point, the emphasis will shift to the surface storage project teams as they use the CMP for their feasibility analyses The Common Assumptions Team will continue to help by: Supporting the project teams as they apply the CMP Performing cumulative and incremental analyses