BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Market Survivor! Putting Together A Successful Marketing Plan for 2014 Bryce Knorr John Otte

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Why Do You Need A Plan? Correlated with financial success Avoid emotional mistakes Respond to changing conditions Framework for making decisions, not a crystal ball

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Why Do It?

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING You Know It’s Important

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING You Want To Do It

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Sure, You Have A “Plan”

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING But Is It Really A Plan?

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Some Plans Are Missing Key Parts

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Is It Set In Stone?

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING 18-Month Window Is Common If you have a written marketing plan, how many months long is your window for pricing crops before and after harvest?

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Questions To Ponder Is average OK? How aggressive do you want to be? How much do you want to risk?

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Consider … Your tolerance for risk (loss of equity) Your fundamental outlook Your technical outlook Your basis outlook Your seasonal trend outlook Your tools Your sales plan

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING What’s Wrong With This Plan?

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING

Data Table Matrix

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING

Your Challenge acres of corn 160 bpa trend yield = expected bu $655 cost of production, includes trend- adjusted 85% On-farm storage cost 3 cents/mo. 100,000 bu. on-farm storage

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING The Rules Make a 2014 plan with spot sales, cash contracts and/or options. Zero basis Sell at harvest 10/15/14 or on-farm storage only. Seven windows: Jan (Now!), March, Summer, Harvest, Nov/Dec, Jan/March (‘15), April/July (‘15) 2014 crop must be sold by Sept. 1, 2015 Random selection, according to historical probabilities

BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Make Your Plan