BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Market Survivor! Putting Together A Successful Marketing Plan for 2014 Bryce Knorr John Otte
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Why Do You Need A Plan? Correlated with financial success Avoid emotional mistakes Respond to changing conditions Framework for making decisions, not a crystal ball
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Why Do It?
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING You Know It’s Important
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING You Want To Do It
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Sure, You Have A “Plan”
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING But Is It Really A Plan?
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Some Plans Are Missing Key Parts
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Is It Set In Stone?
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING 18-Month Window Is Common If you have a written marketing plan, how many months long is your window for pricing crops before and after harvest?
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Questions To Ponder Is average OK? How aggressive do you want to be? How much do you want to risk?
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Consider … Your tolerance for risk (loss of equity) Your fundamental outlook Your technical outlook Your basis outlook Your seasonal trend outlook Your tools Your sales plan
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING What’s Wrong With This Plan?
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING
Data Table Matrix
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING
Your Challenge acres of corn 160 bpa trend yield = expected bu $655 cost of production, includes trend- adjusted 85% On-farm storage cost 3 cents/mo. 100,000 bu. on-farm storage
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING The Rules Make a 2014 plan with spot sales, cash contracts and/or options. Zero basis Sell at harvest 10/15/14 or on-farm storage only. Seven windows: Jan (Now!), March, Summer, Harvest, Nov/Dec, Jan/March (‘15), April/July (‘15) 2014 crop must be sold by Sept. 1, 2015 Random selection, according to historical probabilities
BUSINESS AND MARKETING TOOLS FOR PROFITABLE FARMING Make Your Plan