Analyzing Current and Future Catastrophic Risks from Emerging-Threat Technologies Kickoff Template Submission Date: 5 Jan 2014 Anthony M. Barrett: PI and Research Transition Lead Jun Zhuang: Co-PI assisting with methods Seth Baum: Investigator supporting elicitations

2 Project Objectives: Research Goals –Develop methodology to use available information and expert judgment to: Identify ways in which catastrophes could occur with new technological developments Estimate risks with initial information and update assessments with new information Research Transition Goals –Facilitate the following: Intelligence monitoring for signal events Update assessments of risk profiles

3 DHS Interest and Motivation: DHS interested in emerging-risk assessment Currently main DHS partner is National Biosurveillance Integration Center (NBIC) at DHS Office of Health Affairs –Help NBIC monitor emerging bio-risks Other potential methodology users include: –DHS Bio & Chem Division Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) –S&T Acquisition Support and Operations Analysis (for S&T Futures work)

4 Potential non-DHS Stakeholders: Members of the Intelligence Community –Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)

5 Interfaces to Related Research Informal interfaces with PIs on related work at CREATE, START Seeking to recruit experts for elicitation that are working on related topics –Candidates we seek to recruit include: Gary Ackerman (START) –Emerging-tech use in terrorism Todd Kuiken (Wilson Center) –Synthetic biology risks Ed You (FBI) –Engagement with DIYbio, synthetic biology communities

6 Research Technical Plan: Construct models using available information: –Catastrophe fault-tree logic models, working backward from catastrophe scenarios –Technology development models, working forwards from the current state of the world For catastrophe-enabling development events: –Estimate the dates of developments (priors) –Identify likely indicators of developments –Updated estimates given indicators (posteriors) Represent tradeoffs of options in terms of effects on risk model parameters and option costs Integrate risk models and option-tradeoff models to support decision analysis of options

7 Research Transition Plan: Aiming scenarios, deliverables to be useful to DHS Report on the methodology developed in this project and the findings from the application of this methodology to the case study –Including discussion of methodology limitations, potential extensions, and steps for implementation by risk practitioners Software that analysts can use to apply the methodology to other cases –Using commercially available off-the-shelf (COTS) software based on influence diagrams, with stochastic simulation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo algorithms –Could include Analytica by Lumina Decision Systems or Netica by Norsys Software

8 Milestones and Schedule/Timeline: 1. Conduct initial literature reviews, select one or more areas for methodology application, conduct initial discussions with subject matter experts, build first-iteration models using representative data available at that point, and identify potential risk reduction measures -- November Conduct initial risk analyses, perform initial characterization of risk reduction measure effects and tradeoffs, conduct additional discussions with subject matter experts -- January Conduct expert elicitations and obtain other data to improve models and analyses -- March Finalize models and analyses; write final report -- June 2015