COP OUT ! Hon Barry Brill OBE JP LLM MComLaw OPM

COP21 will out-flunk cop15 Paris COP21 Goal: “A universal, legally binding and differentiated agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions so as to limit the global temperature rise to 2 ° C above current levels. Some Descriptions of Copenhagen COP15: “Political Disaster” (Heerdegard) “Chinese Hypocrisy” (Sarkozy) “Abject Failure” (Friends of the Earth) “A Crime Scene” (Greenpeace)

TWO PREDICTIO NS 1. The outcome of COP21 will be an embarrassing FAILURE BUT… 2. The objective of COP21 will be a resounding SUCCESS

Track record 20 COPs: Many Failures - No Successes 1. Rio 1992: UNFCC Goal - OECD emissions to reduce to 1990 levels by 2000 [they increased by 20%] 2. Kyoto 1997 : Legally enforceable reduction of OECD emissions - Highly euro-centric - NZ only other complier - All except Europe refused a second commitment - During , global emissions rose by 60% 3. Bali 2007: Road Map - voluntary emission targets to be adopted by developing countries. [BASIC countries have simply refused]. 4. Copenhagen 2009: legally binding treaty to reduce emissions by 25% by 2020 [fiasco] 5. Cancun 2010: a $100 billion pa “Green Climate Fund” agreed [never funded]

THE negotiating climate Non-climate arguments disappeared since 2009: - Failure of “Peak Oil” - Failure of “Green Growth” - Failure of Carbon Markets - Lapse in Popularity/Policy - Global Financial Crisis AND “The Hiatus”: - IPCC Influence - Cost-Benefit Models - Potential Collapse of Alarm

countries...that matter RankCountry Emissions (per million tonnes) Percentage Percentage Change China8, United States5, EU4, India1, Russia1, Japan1, South Korea Iran Canada Saudi Arabia South Africa Brazil Mexico Australia Indonesia TOTAL27, All other countries4, Developed Country Percentage 37.2

Leadership Leaders: - B.A.S.I.C.: Growth/Poverty Eradication (“Rio Principles) - USA: Rhetoric, No Pain - EU: Divided - Fuel Exporters: Russia, Iran, Saudi, Indonesia - Canada/Australia; Japan Remainder: - Group of 77: Money - Small Island States: Justice (Money)

Projected Change... in global mean surface air temperatures table spm 2 (AR5, WG1): Notes: 1. Only one RCP can be considered 2. Which end of range is probable? 3. With ECS 2.0C RCP ( CMIP5 models ) to to to to to to 3.1

PREDICTING THE Pathway Why Ignore RCP8.5? 1. Pathways include outliers 2. Requires six-fold increase in trajectory 3. Methane from permafrost - “extremely unlikely” 4. Ridley: “The one thing we can say about RCP8.5 is that it is very implausible.” Why Choose RCP2.6 as BAU? 1. Above current trajectory 2. RF forecasts are habitually over-stated 3. Shale gas: US leading decline? 4. Biosphere growth? 5. Efficiency. Oil price quadrupled “Carbon Price” (MT of CO2e) increased from $7.36 (1999) to $43.30 today - Barrel = 433kg. Equivalent to carbon tax of $36 - higher than anywhere - Coal went $30 to 150 to 85. Tax higher than Stern. 6. Assumption RF is 100% anthropogenic

Net global BENEFIt of climate change 1.) Net economic impact of <2.2°C warming is positive, 2.) Marginal benefit declines after 1°C of additional warming. 3.) Tol’s graph averages all of the peer-reviewed studies published to date

The (negative) social cost of carbon... “The IPPC produced two reports last year. One said that the cost of climate change is likely to be less than 2% of GDP by the end of this century. The other said that the cost of decarbonizing the world economy with renewable energy is likely to be 4% of GDP. Why do something that you know will do more harm than good?” - Matt Ridley, Financial Post, June

Thank You