Globalization: Emerging Interactions among Global Environmental Changes and Social Transformations Robert W. Kates AAAS, Boston,

What is Science and Technology for Sustainability? Science anchored in concerns for the human condition, not in current agenda of science Science in support of a sustainability transition –By 2050, Two generations: Meet human needs: feed, nurture, educate, house, employ Reduce hunger and poverty Maintain life support systems of planet

What’s New in Science and Technology for Sustainability? Bringing together environmental science and development science through research on nature-society interactions Concern for enlarging scientific capacity in developing countries and providing scientific support for local action Science that is integrative: Natural & social science; sectors of human activities; scholars & practitioners Science that is fundamental: Scale; Non-linear processes and complexity; the unity of nature-society Science that is regional and place-based: Where people and ecosystems are, where a transition can happen, where integration takes place, where complexity is understandable None of the above is new—Together they are

Core Research Themes in Science and Technology for Sustainability Modeling dynamic interactions between nature and society. Changing long-term trends in environment and development. Understanding vulnerability and resilience of places, ecosystems, and human livelihoods. Identifying limits or thresholds of serious degradation Creating incentives to move society toward more sustainable trajectories. Providing usable knowledge to navigate a transition toward sustainability.

Core question: How are long-term trends in environment and development, including consumption and population, reshaping nature-society interactions in ways relevant to sustainability? Characterizing and monitoring a sustainability transition Identifying critical trends and transitions Understanding driving forces, processes, and opportunities for change Integrating trends into models, projections and scenarios Explaining generic modes, forms, trajectories, and transitions

Identifying Critical Trends Well-defined trends –Population –Income –Productivity Poorly-defined multitrends –Attitudes, Behavior & Values –Consumption –Globalization –Institutions –Land Use and Cover

Globalization “…in its simplest sense globalization refers to the widening, deepening and speeding up of global interconnectedness….” —Held, McGrew, Goldblatt, and Perraton, Global Transformations: Politics, Economics an Culture

Globalization and the Sustainability Transition How does globalization affect a transition toward sustainability in: –Meeting human needs –Reducing hunger and poverty –Preserving life support systems? Helps, Hinders, Both

Reducing Hunger Chronic household hunger –Lack of entitlements –Linked to poverty Episodic hunger –Famine, war, financial crisis, structural adjustment Special needs hunger –Mothers and children –Micronutrients: iodine, iron, vitamin A

Reducing Chronic Hunger by Halves

Hunger and Income Income Hunger Line Under- nourished Pop. In scenarios, change population average income distribution hunger line

Globalization and Reducing Chronic Hunger Causal ElementHelpHinder Population Growth Decline ++ Income per capita ++ Africa Inequity + Between +++ Within Hunger line +

Globalization and Reducing Episodic Hunger Causal ElementHelpHinder Famine ++++ Financial crisis +++ Structural adjustment ++

Globalization and Reducing Special Needs Hunger Hunger TypeHelpHinder Mothers and Children ++++ Iodine, Iron, Vitamin A ++++

Globalization and Preserving Life Support Systems Causal ElementHelpHinder Population ++ Consumption ++++ Technology +++ Ideas Governance +++

“Is ambiguity a good thing” “Well yes and no” — Garrison Keillor, Lake Woebegone, MN

“Is Globalization a good thing” Feeding, nurturing and reducing hunger –Chronic hunger persists –Episodic and special needs hunger reduced Preserving life support systems –Consumption overwhelms improved technology, ideas. governance

Making Globalization Better: U.S. Analog “Continentalization of capitalism” –Uncertainty as to what is happening –Creating a governance structure for capitalism to function Regulating contracts, stock certificates Regulating trusts –Addressing victims, harms, inequity Child labor, Working conditions, Social safety net, Worker’s rights, Environment –Role of States and Federal government “Civilizing Globalization” –Global rules and transparency –Victim’s rights: Already child labor prohibition –Globalization from the bottom: NGOs and Corporations

Globalization and a Transition Toward Sustainability