C. Michael Kamm, CEO Cassidy Turley | Northern California Bay Area Suburban Office/R&D Market Overview
Bay Area Market Recovery vs. Stagnation? Where Are We? Recovery? Yes…for some a boom… Stagnation? Yes…for some…but probably not for long… Commercial real estate demand still comes down to job growth
Source; BLS From 2010 to 2011 (Thousands) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Change in employment
Denver Oakland Houston Dallas Phoenix San Jose Columbus Baltimore Indianapolis Raleigh Boston Atlanta Northern NJ Central NJ San Francisco DC Metro San Diego Cincinnati Chicago Sacramento Nashville Minneapolis Kansas City St. Louis, Charlotte, Milwaukee Dayton Strong Momentum Moderate Weak/Declining 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -1.0% Tampa NY City Market Momentum in 2012 Job Growth, 3 month moving average, % change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Marin San Mateo Tri-Valley North I-680 East Bay Silicon Valley Bay Area Office | Q Q Inventory SF252,844,686253,622,896 Total Availabilities40,047,63734,094,855 Vacancy15.84%13.44% Avg. Asking (FS)$2.49$2.70 4Q Trailing Net Abs.4,659,0326,730,991 San Francisco Bay Area R&D | Q Q Inventory SF194,116,011192,687,318 Total Availabilities33,663,76534,094,855 Vacancy17.3%14.8% Avg. Asking (NNN)$1.11$1.24 4Q Trailing Net Abs.1,901,2893,739,550
Bay Area Office/R&D Vacancy Rate Trend Source: Cassidy Turley Research
Bay Area Office/R&D Net Absorption Trend Combined (MM Sq. Ft.) +34.0MM-59.6MM+33.9MM-16.1MM+15.6MM Source: Cassidy Turley Research
Bay Area Office/R&D Annual Change in Avg. Asking Rate OFFC: -71% R&D: -119% OFFC: +41% R&D: +51% OFFC: -18% R&D: -23% OFFC: +8% R&D: +10% OFFC: +80% R&D: +244% Source: Cassidy Turley Research
San Francisco San Mate o New York San Jose Cincinnati Boston Phoenix Houston Baltimore Long Island Suburban MD Suburban VA Chicago Tampa Dallas Indianapolis Atlanta Northern NJ Nashville Denver Kansas City St. Louis Charlotte Sacramento Source: Cassidy Turley Research Strong Growth Greater than 4% Moderate 1 to 4% Flat Small declines 0.5% to -2% Large Declines Worse than -2% Central NJ Minneapolis Milwaukee Dayton Raleigh Columbus Oakland-East Bay Louisville San Diego DC Office Rent Snapshot Q vs. Q1 2011, Y/Y % Change Source: Cassidy Turley Research
San Rafael 12.8% | $2.44 Green./Larkspur 7.3% | $3.79 Novato 18.4% | $2.18 Corte Madera 9.9% | $3.00 Saus./Tiburon 10.9% | $2.76 Mill Valley 22.5% | $3.60 Vacancy Thematic: <10%10% %15% %20% %≥25% Marin County | Q Q Inventory SF9,701,8249,702,000 Total Availabilities1,911,6591,392,000 Vacancy19.7%14.3% Avg. Asking (NNN)$2.41$2.51 4Q Trailing Net Abs.-25,198520,086 Source: Cassidy Turley Research
S. San Francisco 30.6% | $3.53 San Bruno/ Millbrae 4.7% | $2.23 Brisbane 38.5% | $2.88 Daly City 19.3% | $2.22 Burlingame 12.6% | $2.15 San Mateo 14.2% | $2.65 Foster City 9.3% | $3.07 Redwood Shores 7.4% | $3.25 Belmont/ San Carlos 26.4% | $2.56 Redwood City 10.7% | $3.32 Menlo Park 10.3% | $7.24 Vacancy Thematic: <10%10% %15% %20% %≥25% San Mateo Cty | Q Q Inventory SF31,105,05231,105,520 Total Availabilities4,708,3144,186,000 Vacancy15.1%13.5% Avg. Asking (NNN)$2.88$3.26 4Q Trailing Net Abs.704,175522,100 Source: Cassidy Turley Research
Net 850K Rent 20% Net 700K Rent 10% Net 640K Rent 10% F O R E C A S T Annual Growth Historical & Forecast Vacancy & Rents (Class A) San Mateo County Office Source: Cassidy Turley Research
Campbell 13.1% | $2.48 S. San Jose 13.9% | $1.71 San Jose-DT 23.0% | $2.31 N. San Jose 18.8% | $2.31 SJ-Airport 22.6% | $2.21 Milpitas 13.7% | $1.69 Mt. View 5.7% | $3.71 Palo Alto 4.5% | $5.50 Sunnyvale 13.8% | $3.32 Santa Clara 19.9% | $2.04 Cupertino 3.3% | $3.05 Los Gatos-Saratoga 10.9% | $2.95 Civic Center 11.1% | $1.62 W. San Jose 9.2% | $1.94 Fremont 13.3% | $2.02 Vacancy Thematic: <10%10% %15% %20% %≥25% Silicon Valley | Q Q Inventory SF63,831,60464,035,000 Total Availabilities10,496,4218,516,000 Vacancy16.44%13.3% Avg. Asking (NNN)$2.75$2.70 4Q Trailing Net Abs.2,055,6332,183,301 Source: Cassidy Turley Research
Net 6.0M Rent 10% Net 6.0M Rent 15% Net 7.5M Rent 20% F O R E C A S T Annual Growth Historical & Forecast Vacancy & Rents Silicon Valley Office/R&D Source: Cassidy Turley Research
Silicon Valley Requirements – Historical Volume Tracking Square Feet (Millions) Requirements Volume SF Silicon Valley Office/R&D Demand near a 10-year high Average size of requirements has grown significantly Source: Cassidy Turley Research
Silicon Valley Market Drivers Apple… controls close to 7MM SF in Cupertino, over 80% of that market, pushing tenants east has leased 1.15M SF in Sunnyvale over the last year. Is negotiating an another ±1M square feet in Sunnyvale. Sunnyvale’s vacancy is declining fast and rents are rising forcing tenants to move east Source: Cassidy Turley Research Office/R&D Vacancy as of March 16, 2012 Average Rates Q & 2011
Richmond 25.2% | $2.17 Berkeley CBD 10.5% | $2.42 West Berkeley 10.5% | $2.37 Emeryville 18.1% | $2.49 Lake Merritt 15.1% | $2.38 City Center 13.8% | $2.27 Jack London Sq. 12.5% | $1.50 N. Alameda 36.3% | $2.10 S. Alameda 26.8% | $1.74 Coliseum-Airport 28.0% | $1.74 Vacancy Thematic: <10%10% %15% %20% %≥25% Source: Cassidy Turley Research East Bay I-80 | Q Q Inventory SF32,069,07932,168,079 Total Availabilities5,424,0905,791,545 Vacancy16.9%18.0% Avg. Asking (NNN)$2.10$2.15 4Q Trailing Net Abs.31, ,455
Pleasant Hill 7.2% | $2.19 Concord 15.7% | $1.78 WC-Shadelands 23.5% | $1.63 WC-BART Area 16.5% | $2.54 WC-Downtown 11.5% | $2.36 WC-PH BART 20.9% | $2.40 Lamorinda 9.4% | $2.98 Vacancy Thematic: <10%10% %15% %20% %≥25% East Bay N. I-680 | Q Q Inventory SF16,826,924 Total Availabilities2,972,4752,637,603 Vacancy17.67%15.7% Avg. Asking (NNN)$2.11$2.08 4Q Trailing Net Abs.-468,500334,872 Source: Cassidy Turley Research
San Ramon 14.3% | $1.80 Dublin 15.9% | $1.73 Livermore 27.7% | $1.41 Pleasanton 19.8% | $1.77 Vacancy Thematic: <10%10% %15% %20% %≥25% Tri-Valley | Q Q Inventory SF22,034,339 Total Availabilities4,030,5543,676,547 Vacancy18.3%16.7% Avg. Asking (NNN)$1.73$1.89 4Q Trailing Net Abs.-71,075354,007 Source: Cassidy Turley Research
F O R E C A S T Annual Growth Historical & Forecast Vacancy & Rents Greater East Bay Office Net 1.6M Rent 5% Net 700K Rent 10% Net 300K Rent 10% Source: Cassidy Turley Research Includes Alameda & Contra Costa Counties
Bay Area Industrial Market Vacancy Rate Trend Source: Cassidy Turley Research
Bay Area Market Changes Ahead
Bay Area Market Changes Ahead Recovery? Absolutely… Tech growth remains aggressive with office and R&D the beneficiaries Geography remains limited to 101 Corridor, but is expanding in South Bay Stagnation? Yes, for some, but probably not for long… Both warehouse and manufacturing remain in flat to near-flat growth mode - East Bay industrial still struggling to compete with Stockton price points Office and R&D product away from tech influence remains mostly flat - Outlying markets generally weakest for job growth and office demand