Michigan Department of Corrections Updated Prison Bed Space Projections Impact from Probation, Community Corrections, Parole and the MPRI Presentation to the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Corrections May 12, 2009

2 Projection Model & Methodology   Projections issued in 2005 were 99.6% accurate Only 205 prisoners higher than actual   Projections issued in 2006 were 96.9% accurate 1,540 prisoners lower than actual – due to the criminal justice system response to highly publicized crimes in February 2006   Projections issued in 2007 were 95.0% accurate 2,625 prisoners higher than actual — due to record paroles, 33% fewer parole failures, and reduced prison admissions   Projections issued in 2008 were 94.7% accurate 2,708 prisoners higher than actual — Past-ERD Reduction Strategy produced 3 rd highest number of paroles, fewer parole failures, and less than expected prison admissions

3 Actual Population versus Net Operating Capacity

4 Evidenced Based Practices Reducing Crime by Focusing on What Works Studies show there is little direct relationship between crime and incarceration and that the cost benefit of imprisonment is not the best way to reduce crime.Studies show there is little direct relationship between crime and incarceration and that the cost benefit of imprisonment is not the best way to reduce crime. Return to prison rates for former prisoners who serve one, two, three, four or five years in prison are nearly the same.Return to prison rates for former prisoners who serve one, two, three, four or five years in prison are nearly the same. The rising cost of the corrections budget is not driven by increases in crime, it is driven by the sheer size of the prison system.The rising cost of the corrections budget is not driven by increases in crime, it is driven by the sheer size of the prison system. Dollar for dollar, investments in effective police practices reduce crime more than imprisonment.Dollar for dollar, investments in effective police practices reduce crime more than imprisonment. Employment is a critical dimension of successful offender rehabilitation and is associated with lower rates of re-offending; higher wages are associated with lower rates of criminal activity.Employment is a critical dimension of successful offender rehabilitation and is associated with lower rates of re-offending; higher wages are associated with lower rates of criminal activity. Educational and training programs that address fundamental abilities and teach skills directly applicable to the job market contribute to successful reintegration of offenders into society and reduce recidivism.Educational and training programs that address fundamental abilities and teach skills directly applicable to the job market contribute to successful reintegration of offenders into society and reduce recidivism.

5 Evidence Based Practices Michigan Prisoner ReEntry Initiative Implemented statewide in FY 2008 with expansion to up-to- scale possible in FY2009Implemented statewide in FY 2008 with expansion to up-to- scale possible in FY2009 Focus on MPRI has provided improved resources to Parole Board including better training and more sophisticated assessment instrumentsFocus on MPRI has provided improved resources to Parole Board including better training and more sophisticated assessment instruments Annual parole revocations are down by 42% since record high year of 2002, despite a 40% increase in size of parole populationAnnual parole revocations are down by 42% since record high year of 2002, despite a 40% increase in size of parole population Successful MPRI process mitigates and controls risk - raises Parole Board confidence in parole plans and outcomes, enabling higher parole approval rates across the boardSuccessful MPRI process mitigates and controls risk - raises Parole Board confidence in parole plans and outcomes, enabling higher parole approval rates across the board Improved parole guidelines are being developed as a way to sustain and expand the impact of these improvementsImproved parole guidelines are being developed as a way to sustain and expand the impact of these improvements

6 Projection Assumptions Successful Approaches to Controlling Prison Growth Front End Impacts on Prison Growth Front End Impacts on Prison Growth Comprehensive Planning through the Community Corrections Act continues to keep prison admission rate lower than other states Comprehensive Planning through the Community Corrections Act continues to keep prison admission rate lower than other states Graduated sanctions and services for probationers respond to probationer risk and need – less than 7% fail and go to prison Graduated sanctions and services for probationers respond to probationer risk and need – less than 7% fail and go to prison Residential substance abuse treatment programs are effective Residential substance abuse treatment programs are effective Efforts to Affect Length of Stay, Releases and Returns MPRI statewide expansion includes every county in the state MPRI statewide expansion includes every county in the state Improved Parole Board risk and need assessment strategies Improved Parole Board risk and need assessment strategies Focus on special populations: Mentally Ill, Youthful Offenders, SAI, Female Offenders Focus on special populations: Mentally Ill, Youthful Offenders, SAI, Female Offenders Continue Aggressive Review of Past ERD Prisoner Population Continue Aggressive Review of Past ERD Prisoner Population Cross System Efforts Driven by MPRI Focus More sophisticated risk and need assessment approaches More sophisticated risk and need assessment approaches Offender based accountability plans Offender based accountability plans Collaborative Case Management approaches Collaborative Case Management approaches Focus on employment as primary offender need Focus on employment as primary offender need

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9 Recent Trends Through April 30, 2009 Current actual population is within 926 of the projection through April (98.0% accurate).Current actual population is within 926 of the projection through April (98.0% accurate). Male population is 961 higher than the forecast, while female population is 35 lower than the forecast.Male population is 961 higher than the forecast, while female population is 35 lower than the forecast. In terms of bed space, actual net operating capacity at the end of April was slightly higher than forecast due primarily to the opening of the Maxey Facility and the beds added at Macomb Correctional Facility for male mental health treatment.In terms of bed space, actual net operating capacity at the end of April was slightly higher than forecast due primarily to the opening of the Maxey Facility and the beds added at Macomb Correctional Facility for male mental health treatment. All trends in the key corrections data indicators continue to point to an accelerating prison population reduction over the coming months.All trends in the key corrections data indicators continue to point to an accelerating prison population reduction over the coming months. The Council of State Governments Justice Reinvestment Work Group Recommendations, originally expected to take effect by April 1, 2009, have not yet been taken up by the Legislature.The Council of State Governments Justice Reinvestment Work Group Recommendations, originally expected to take effect by April 1, 2009, have not yet been taken up by the Legislature. The expansion of the Parole Board from 10 to 15 members has been accomplished and increased numbers of reviews will result in additional paroles.The expansion of the Parole Board from 10 to 15 members has been accomplished and increased numbers of reviews will result in additional paroles.

10 Front End Impact: Felony court dispositions have declined in 2008 after 8 consecutive years of growth

11 Front End Impact: Prison intake decreased due to reduced dispositions, and improved community corrections and probation practices – lowest since 2001

12 Impact on Length of Stay: Parole approval rate reached highest level since 1993 due to MPRI and Parole Board efforts to improve risk & need assessment

13 Impact on Releases: The number of moves to parole in 2008 was the 3 rd highest in history due to MPRI and improvements by the Parole Board

14 Impact on Releases: Max outs have steadily declined due to the MPRI after a decade of annual increases

15 Impact on Returns: Parole violator new sentence admissions to prison have been stable for 3 years - despite about 3,000 more offenders on parole- due to MPRI and improved parole supervision approaches

16 Impact on Returns: Parole violator technical returns to prison decreased to the lowest number since despite a record high parole population – due to MPRI and improved parole supervision approaches

17 The Council of State Governments /Justice Reinvestment Work Group Data-Informed, Policy Driven Recommendations Recommendations that Affect Prison Admissions Probationers with high risk and need factors have high rearrest rates and need intensive supervision, health services, education and other supports. The Justice Reinvestment Work Group recommends: Amend the Community Corrections Act (CCA) to eliminate the restriction to only allow targeting of non-assaultive offenders and to require the use of validated risk and need assessmentAmend the Community Corrections Act (CCA) to eliminate the restriction to only allow targeting of non-assaultive offenders and to require the use of validated risk and need assessment Target High Risk probationers under the CCA and measure impact of evidence based practices on reducing rearrest.Target High Risk probationers under the CCA and measure impact of evidence based practices on reducing rearrest. Expand graduated sanctions and services for probationers including the use of short jail stays as sanctions and, in the service area, improved approaches for employmentExpand graduated sanctions and services for probationers including the use of short jail stays as sanctions and, in the service area, improved approaches for employment Demonstrate the quality of the programs funded under the CCADemonstrate the quality of the programs funded under the CCA

18 The Council of State Governments /Justice Reinvestment Work Group Data-Informed, Policy Driven Recommendations Recommendations that Affect Length of Stay 2007 prison releases to parole served an average 127% of their court-imposed minimum sentence. The Justice Reinvestment Work Group recommends: Legislation to require that the Parole Board release prisoners after serving between % of their court-imposed minimum sentence – with limited exceptionsLegislation to require that the Parole Board release prisoners after serving between % of their court-imposed minimum sentence – with limited exceptions Legislation to require that the Parole Board revoke parole for no more than 9 months for first time revocations related to condition violationsLegislation to require that the Parole Board revoke parole for no more than 9 months for first time revocations related to condition violations Legislation to require that the Parole Board, with only few exceptions, provide at least 9 months of parole supervision for prisoners who otherwise would have served their entire maximum sentence (no “max outs”, with few exceptions)Legislation to require that the Parole Board, with only few exceptions, provide at least 9 months of parole supervision for prisoners who otherwise would have served their entire maximum sentence (no “max outs”, with few exceptions)

19 New Prison Population Projections New Prison Population Projections Expand Front End Impacts on Prison Growth under the Community Corrections Act Expand Front End Impacts on Prison Growth under the Community Corrections Act Amend the Community Corrections Act (CCA) and increase diversions Amend the Community Corrections Act (CCA) and increase diversions Implement demonstrations of impact when targeting higher risk probationers and measure impact of evidence based practices Implement demonstrations of impact when targeting higher risk probationers and measure impact of evidence based practices Use COMPAS for risk and need assessments of probationers and improve case planning and case management efforts Use COMPAS for risk and need assessments of probationers and improve case planning and case management efforts Expand graduated sanctions and services for probationers – including short stays in jail when possible Expand graduated sanctions and services for probationers – including short stays in jail when possible Improve the use of the County Jail Reimbursement Program for diversions Improve the use of the County Jail Reimbursement Program for diversions Reduce Length of Stay, Increase Releases and Reduce Returns to Prison under the MPRI Take MPRI up-to-scale in FY 2009 – NO EARLY RELEASES Take MPRI up-to-scale in FY 2009 – NO EARLY RELEASES Expand efforts to work with mentally ill prisoners Expand efforts to work with mentally ill prisoners Expand Review of Past ERD Prisoner Population by adding 5 new parole board members and increase number of paroles Expand Review of Past ERD Prisoner Population by adding 5 new parole board members and increase number of paroles Implement CSG work group recommendations for parole reforms immediately and decrease length of stay of prisoners Implement CSG work group recommendations for parole reforms immediately and decrease length of stay of prisoners

20 New Bed Space Projections Past ERD Prisoner Reduction Strategy New Bed Space Projections Past ERD Prisoner Reduction Strategy Experience over the past five years with MPRI and the capability to focus on special populations statewide allow for greater attention to prisoners who have served time beyond their Earliest Release Date (ERD) Number of prisoners past their ERD was over 17,000 in 2003 Number of prisoners past their ERD was over 17,000 in 2003 From 2003 to 2008, number was slowly reduced to 15,000 From 2003 to 2008, number was slowly reduced to 15,000 Beginning in June 2008 with statewide presence of MPRI and improved parole board resources, number has reduced to approximately 12,000 – allowing several prison closings in 2009 Beginning in June 2008 with statewide presence of MPRI and improved parole board resources, number has reduced to approximately 12,000 – allowing several prison closings in 2009 Focus in 2009 is to further reduce past ERD population by another several thousand Focus in 2009 is to further reduce past ERD population by another several thousand In addition, prison admission reduction efforts will be expanded In addition, prison admission reduction efforts will be expanded

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22 New Bed Space Projections Impact and Reinvestments Reduced Need for Prisons Reduced Need for Prisons Trends in community efforts to keep prison admissions low Trends in community efforts to keep prison admissions low Increased paroles for past ERD prisoners – NO EARLY RELEASES Increased paroles for past ERD prisoners – NO EARLY RELEASES Reduced technical violations and parolee failures Reduced technical violations and parolee failures Reassessment of classification approaches for prisoners will allow re-configuration of prison system Reassessment of classification approaches for prisoners will allow re-configuration of prison system As prison space becomes available, prison closings will be assessed As prison space becomes available, prison closings will be assessed Reinvestments on the Front End Expand use of sophisticated risk and need assessment approaches Expand use of sophisticated risk and need assessment approaches Improved offender based accountability plans Improved offender based accountability plans Improved comprehensive planning under PA 511 Improved comprehensive planning under PA 511 Improved Collaborative Case Management approaches Improved Collaborative Case Management approaches Focus on offender employment using Stimulus funds Focus on offender employment using Stimulus funds Reinvestments on the Back End $20M for MPRI and Parole Supervision expansion in FY 2009 $20M for MPRI and Parole Supervision expansion in FY 2009 $24.2M more for parole services in FY 2010 $24.2M more for parole services in FY 2010 $22.7M more for MPRI in FY 2010 $22.7M more for MPRI in FY 2010 Improvements in prisoner education & academic training Improvements in prisoner education & academic training