Amospheric inversions: Investigating the recent inter-annual flux variations ! P. Peylin, C. Rödenbeck, P. Rayner, experimentalists, … Inverse models Data.

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Amospheric inversions: Investigating the recent inter-annual flux variations ! P. Peylin, C. Rödenbeck, P. Rayner, experimentalists, … Inverse models Data signal Net carbon fluxes ? inter-annual flux time series 2003 summer flux annomaly

2 independent inversions ( Similarities / differences ) : LSCEMPI Time-dependent Bayesian Inversion / Solve for pixel fluxes LMDz (2.5° x 3.7°) TM3 (4° x 5°) ORCHIDEE mean fluxes & GFED priors Distance / Biome correlation generic No IAV prior & GFED priors distance correlation Observations : transport model : Prior information Inverse approach : Monthly mean conc. Individual flask / hourly data -> Monthly fluxes -> ~ Weekly fluxes CSIRO Time – independent 140 regions Montlhy CO2 + 13CO2 Match (4° x 4°) CASA model No IAV prior

Raw data / Fit (use in LSCE inversion) Deviation from a linear fit of winter (DJF) / summer (JAS) mean values CMN SCH CMN SCH (Ppm)

European scale: raw fluxes Pixgro Mod17 ANN JENA_ref ORCHIDEE LPJ JULES BIOME-BGC bottum-up range

European scale: raw fluxes Pixgro Mod17 ANN JENA_ref LSCE_ref LSCE_ObsJena ORCHIDEE LPJ JULES BIOME-BGC bottum-up range

European scale: raw fluxes Pixgro Mod17 ANN JENA_ref LSCE_ref LSCE_ObsJena CSIRO_ Peter T3 mean ORCHIDEE LPJ JULES BIOME-BGC bottum-up range

Annual land fluxes : LSCELSCE (Jena obs) JENACSIRO Europe N. Asia ,27 -0, Mean over In GtC / year -> Impact of fossil fuel emissions : Differences between Edgar and IER up to ~ 0.2 Gt / year Net annual fluxes not robust yet !

Flux anomalies filtered fluxes : 120 days

Continental scale: 120 days filtered Agreement for the major anomalies ! JENA_ref JENA_s99 LSCE_ref LSCE_ObsJena

European scale: « flux anomalies » Pixgro Mod17 ANN ORCHIDEE LPJ JULES BIOME-BGC bottum-up range De-seasonnalised + zero mean + filtering high freq. (< 120 days) JENA_ref

European scale: « flux anomalies » Pixgro Mod17 ANN ORCHIDEE LPJ JULES BIOME-BGC bottum-up range De-seasonnalised + zero mean + filtering high freq. (< 120 days) JENA_ref LSCE_ref LSCE_ObsJena

European scale: « flux anomalies » Pixgro Mod17 ANN ORCHIDEE LPJ JULES BIOME-BGC bottum-up range De-seasonnalised + zero mean + filtering high freq. (< 120 days) JENA_ref LSCE_ref LSCE_ObsJena CSIRO_ Peter T3 mean

European sub-region: (120 days filtering) North Europe West Europe Central Europe MPI_ref MPI_s99 LSCE_ObsJena LSCE_new bottum-up range

MPI_ref MPI_s99 LSCE_ObsJena LSCE_new bottum-up range European sub-region: summer anomalies (Jul-Aug-Sep) North Europe West Europe Central Europe

LSCE ref ORCHIDEE gC/m2/mth Biome BGC June – July – August anomalies LPJ MPI Ref JULES

MPI Annual anomalies BIOME LSCE

LPJ ORCHIDEE JULES Annual anomalies

Robustness is scale dependant Uncertainties increase with decreasing spatial scale Prior fluxes & errors / correlations are critical ! Summary Major flux anomalies are seen by two completely independent inverse approaches Net annual fluxes : remain uncertain at European scale But Future Synthesis under preparation ! Use additional data CCDAS approach ! Using regional/better Models & more data will reduce the uncertainties

Pixel based inversion LMDz zoomed over Europe (0.5 x 0.5 degres over Europe) Daily fluxes Using Pseudo-data 10 sites (continuous) Prior fluxes from TURC model + random noise TRUE fluxes from ORCHIDEE + random noise Potential of the current network : perfect transport experiment !

Correlation & Normalized standard deviation between True fluxes and Estimated fluxes Spatial aggregation (km) temporal aggregation (days) Correlation priorNSD prior Correlation posteriorNSD posterior

LSCE ref LSCE (ObsMPI ) MPI Ref gC/m2/mth MPI old case June – July – August anomalies

Error reduction on estimated CO 2 fluxes 2001 surface networkFuture surface network % of error reduction Carouge, phd, 2006.

Case with large noise (equivalent to real data inversion) compute Correlation & Normalized standard deviation between True fluxes & Estimated fluxes

Raw data / Fit (use in LSCE inversion) Deviation from a linear fit of summer (JAS) mean values Monte Cimone Schauinsland (Ppm) Atmospheric data :

Annual land fluxes : LSCELSCE (Jena obs) JENA (old ref) Europe N. Asia ,27 -0,18 Mean over In GtC / year -> Impact of fossil fuel emissions : Differences between Edgar and IER up to ~ 0.2 Gt / year Net annual fluxes not robust yet !