International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas WLI 6 th Annual Regional Coordination Meeting November 2014 Amman – Jordan November, 11 th 2014 Boubaker Dhehibi (SEPRP – ICARDA: & Samia Akrouch (NCARE – Jordan: Tools to Guide WLI Community Interventions for Saving Water and Creating Economic Opportunity

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 2 Thematic Group Background Reference: WLI technical meeting November 2013 Thematic Group: Economics of Natural Resources Management (ENRM) Research Needs: Assessments of water saving technologies: Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)/ saving water (is one important approach to be tackled - e.g. watershed catchment cisterns as the case of Palestine); Comparison between non-conventional and conventional water use (introduction of some endogenous plants); Economic valuation of land and water degradation.

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 3 WATER AND LIVELIHOODS INITIATIVE REGIONAL WORKSHOP FOR THE ECONOMICS OF NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT JUNE 2014 – AMMAN - JORDAN

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 4 Workshop Objectives  To provide the WLI researchers specific research concepts and tools for assessing the profitability of improved interventions in the management of NR;  Share, discuss and advance methods on the application of the cost-benefit tool, adaptation and data needs;  Support the WLI national teams with up to date concepts, analytical tools and practical applications to ensure the progress and delivery of research outputs.

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 5 Workshop Structure  The workshop was for sharing, working together and advance WLI socio economic - with the collaboration of biophysical - teams work to achieve planned outputs.  By the end of the workshop, the participants were able to gain:  An understanding of the basic principles of cost-benefit analysis;  Insights into how to quantify costs and benefits;  Hands-on practice at building a simple cost benefit model;  Proficiency on understanding and analyzing how an agricultural innovation will be adopted within a given population.

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 6 List of Technologies Implemented by the WLI Team CountryLocationTechnologyWho (names)Institution Jordan Jordan Badia Marabs Dr. Samia AkroushNCARE PalestineNassarya and TamunSilage productionDr. Nasser ShaoliNARC EgyptOld LandsRaised Bed Dr. Sha’aban Al Salem ARC IraqAbu Ghraib Sub-surface Irrigation under protected Agriculture Dr. Ahmed Adnan Alfalahi State Board of Agricultural Research (SBAR), MoA LebanonEl Qaa Conservation Agriculture Eng Randa Massad Lebanese Agricultural Research Institute (LARI) YemenDelta Abyan Supplemental Irrigation of Spate Irrigated Sesame Dr. Khader Balem Atroosh Elkod Agricultural Reasearch Station, AREA, MAI

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 7 Tools and Techniques Used in the Guidance Process  Cost – Benefit Analysis Tool  Determine Costs;  Calculate Benefits;  Compare Alternatives;  Report and Plan Action.

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 8 Benefit-cost analysis of technologies using Partial Budget Analysis Without technologyWith technology option 1CostsABC DEF 2InputsQuantityUnit priceTotalInputsQuantityUnit priceTotal 3seeds 4fert 5pesticides 6labor 7fuel 8machiney 9TotalXX TotalXX 10 11Revenue 12Main product 13 Secondary product 14Total revenueXX Total revenueXX 15 16Indicators 17Net returnsC14-C9F14-F9 18% change in NR(F17-C17)/C17 19% change in TC(F9-C9)/C9 20IRRChange NR/Change in TC 21Benefit-cost Ratio C14/C9 F14/F9

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 9 Key Features of the Partial Budget Form  Simplicity  Transparency- production, prices, etc.  Different professionals (agronomists, economists, farmers can scrutinize)  Provides basic agronomic and economic indicators  Forms the basis for more sophisticated analysis-such as optimal crop allocation and input use (farm models)

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 10 Sorghum vs Lipid Technology in Yemen Benefit-cost analysis of technologies using Partial Budget Analysis Without technology (Sorghum) With technology option (Lipid) 1 Costs ABC DEF 2InputsUnitQuantityUnit priceTotal InputsUnitQuantityUnit priceTotal 3seedskg/ha seedskg/ha fertkg/ha fertkg/ha pesticidesl/ha0.0 pesticidesl/ha0.0 6laborman/day laborman/day Irrigationm Irrigationm machineyhour machineyhour Total Total Revenue(Inc luding livestock) 12 Main product kg/ha Main productkg/ha Secondary product Total revenue 2916 Total revenue Indicators 17Net returns % change in NR % change in TC IRR Benefit-cost Ratio

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 11 Tools and Techniques Used in the Guidance Process - ADOPT  Predicts the likely peak of adoption and the likely time to reach that peak;  Encourages users to consider the influence of a structured set of factors affecting adoption;  Engages R,D & E managers by involving them in the process and making adoptability knowledge and considerations readily available and understandable. Sources: Kuehne, G., Llewellyn R., Pannell, D., Wilkinson, R., Dolling, P., Ouzman, J. (2013). ADOPT: the Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool (Public Release Version 1.0, June 2013) [Computer software] Adelaide SA; CSIRO. Available from  ADOPT: Adoption and Diffusion Outcome Prediction Tool

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 12 ADOPT- Conceptual Framework

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 13 Relative Advantage for the Population Profit orientation Environmental orientation Risk orientation Enterprise scale Management horizon Short term constraints Learnability Characteristics of the Innovation Trialable Innovation complexity Observability ADOPT- Conceptual Framework

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 14 Learnability of Population Advisory support Group involvement Relevant existing skills & knowledge Innovation awareness Relative Advantage of the Innovation Relative upfront cost of innovation Reversibility of innovation Profit benefit in years that it is used Future profit benefit Time until any future profit benefits are likely to be realised Environmental costs & benefits Time to environmental benefit Risk exposure Ease and convenience ADOPT- Conceptual Framework

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 15 ADOPT – Practical Case Focus Group Meeting: WLI Farmers – Badia Jordan (Water harvesting techniques) Photo Source: Dr Samia Akroush (2014)

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 16 ADOPT – Practical Case Predicted years to peak adoption11.9 Predicted peak level of adoption95% Predicted adoption level in 5 years from start62.9% Predicted adoption level in 10 years from start94.6% Predicted Adoption Levels Predicted Adoption Curve

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 17 ADOPT – Practical Case Sensitivity Analysis of Adoption Curve

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 18 ADOPT – Practical Case Time to Peak Adoption Level: Constraints Size of the up-front cost of the investment relative to the potential annual benefit from using the innovation; The proportion of the target population need to develop substantial new skills and knowledge to use the innovation; The easiness of the innovation (or significant components of it) be trialled on a limited basis before a decision is made to adopt it on a larger scale; Short-term financial constraints determines the time to peak adoption.

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 19 What’s Next 1.Technology Adoption Assessment / Scaling-out Experience with this technology; Degree of awareness; Degree of adoption; Constraints / barriers to adoption; Requirements for adoption; Factors influencing / determinants adoption; Raisons for non-adoption. 2. Sustainability Development Indicators (SDI’s) Without technology: Reference situation (baseline database) and with technology (adopters - at farm level) Possible Indicators Economic Indicators: Crop Yields; Farm income (livestock and crops); Production costs, etc. Environmental indicators: Erosion (soil runoff); Soil salinity; Soil fertility; Pesticide and nutrient use Social indicators: Revenue per head of family, Hours of labor, Women involvement, etc.

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas 20 Thank you for your attention WATER AND LIVELIHOODS INITIATIVE REGIONAL WORKSHOP FOR THE ECONOMICS OF NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT JUNE 2014 – AMMAN - JORDAN