A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

The Rise of Demography Where does demography fit in to social theory (vs. economy, culture, politics)? Technology-Mortality mechanism in the past Values-Fertility mechanism in modernity? Demographic Transition Uneven Ethnic differentials have had political ramifications, but are declining Ethnic Makeover Accepted. What about religious makeover? Are religious populations more resistant to transition than secular?

Demography and Politics? Early Christianity, spread from some 40 converts in 30 A.D. to over 6 million adherents by 300 A.D. Mormon church: 40 percent growth in past century, widening fertility gap Evangelical Protestant growth in the 20 th c. US: ¾ demographic. 'Red states' have 12-point TFR advantage over 'Blue' in 2004 election Implications of the liberal-democratic-capitalist 'End of History' model

Q1: Secularisation "As this book will demonstrate: 1. The publics of virtually all advanced industrial societies have been moving toward more secular orientations during the past fifty years. Nevertheless, 2. The world as a whole now has more people with traditional religious views than ever before-- and they constitute a growing proportion of the world's population." (Inglehart & Norris 2004) Which will dominate: religious fertility or secularisation?

"Conservative, religiously minded Americans are putting far more of their genes into the future than their liberal, secular counterparts…[heavily Mormon] Utah annually produces 90 children for every 1,000 women of child-bearing age. By comparison, Vermont -- the only state to send a socialist to Congress and the first to embrace gay unions -- produces only 49…Fertility correlates strongly with religious conviction" – Philip Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004)

Conclusion: Secularisation Variation in Patterns of Secularisation Europe has secularised in terms of church attendance, but not in terms of religious feeling In Europe, more religious (Catholic) countries are secularising faster, less religious (mainly Protestant) countries have flatlined at very low (5-10%) levels of church attendance USA has not secularised

Conclusion: Fertility After marital status, church attendance and religiosity among the strongest predictors of individual fertility Seems to be increasing its predictive power in secularising (Catholic) countries In secular (Protestant) countries, church attendance insignificant, but religiosity significantly predicts fertility Future Research: USA, Islamic world, demographic predictions,