George Barna American Culture & Faith Institute November 7, 2013

1. Current Standing of the Tea Party 2. Hopeful Signs and Opportunities 3. Challenges Going Forward 2

1. Current Standing of the Tea Party 2. Hopeful Signs and Opportunities 3. Challenges Going Forward 3

4 Data from October 2013

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28% say the TP reflects the views of most Americans 60% say it does not 19% say they agree with the TP movement 48% have no opinion 37% say the TP Movement is good for the country 52% of conservatives 66% of Republicans 87% of TP supporters 44% of adults say it is bad for the country… 8 Data from October 2013

9 Data from September 2013

55% are favorable toward the Republican Party 43% are unfavorable 52% say Tea Party is a separate, independent movement from the Republican Party 51% of Republicans and 47% of all adults agree 10 Data from Sept. - Oct. 2013

11 Data from July 2013

High name recognition Below average substantive awareness Limited voter empathy Limited support among registered Republicans Lukewarm TP support for Republican Party Above average favor with conservative pastors 12

1. Current Standing of the Tea Party 2. Hopeful Signs and Opportunities 3. Challenges Going Forward 13

With government performance: 16% are satisfied with the way we are being governed 11% approve of the job Congress is doing 17% have a great deal of confidence in our system of government 19% say they can trust the government to do what is right always or most of the time 12% feel content with our government 30% are angry with our government 55% are frustrated with our government 14 Data from October 2013

With government power: 54% say the federal government has too much power 62% believe the federal government has become so large and powerful that it poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens 15 Data from May - June 2013

Majority has different governance preferences: 60% say the government is trying to do too many things that should be left up to individuals and businesses 51% would prefer a smaller government that provides fewer services … 40% prefer a bigger government providing more services 16 Data from Sept. - Oct. 2013

14% are satisfied with the way things are going in our country today 14% believe things are generally headed in the right direction 64% feel that the biggest threat to the country in the future is big government 17 Data from October 2013

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IRS targeting conservative non-profits NSA database development DOJ seizing reports’ phone records Benghazi cover up GSA money spent on gambling Affordable Care Act NSA spying on foreign leaders Attorney General cover up on Fast & Furious 19

56% are worried that government surveillance efforts go too far in invading personal privacy 70% believe that government data collection goes beyond anti-terrorism efforts 63% believe the government is collecting the content of phone calls and s 56% say the federal courts do not provide adequate limitations on what data the government can collect 51% feel the IRS targeting conservative groups is a very important issue 20 Data from June - July 2013

The top-rated national issues are the economy (1 st ) and dysfunctional government (2 nd ) Household debt has dropped from $12.88 trillion in Q to $11.15 trillion in Q Only 11% believe the federal government has reduced spending as much as it can Just 23% say they have seen any impact from across- the-board federal spending cuts (i.e. the sequester) 55% favored raising the debt ceiling only if the government agreed to cut spending to offset the raise 21 Data from October 2013

22 Data for October of years shown; Bloomberg

If 21% of adults are Tea Party supporters, that’s million voting age people Obama won in 2012 with 66 million votes 40% of adults claim to be conservative 71% of Republicans claim to be conservative 46% of adults say they are economically conservative Marketers and social scientists concur that a movement can have substantial impact once it reaches 12% to 15% of the population in question Tea Party is well beyond the threshold 23

24 Data from October 2013

25 Data from October 2013

Government is unpopular People know things are moving in the wrong direction We are increasingly worried about Big Brother Taxpayers are trying to reign in their spending Taxpayers are not convinced the government is trying to curtail its spending Tea Party has enough distinctives to stand out Tea Party is large enough to change the game 26

1. Current Standing of the Tea Party 2. Hopeful Signs and Opportunities 3. Challenges Going Forward 27

The absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus 28

Motivate, mobilize, resource, and direct people toward a shared vision of a preferred future 29

Strategy Resources People 30

Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus Loss of momentum 31

Three-year decline in favorability 38% in 2010 … 28% in 2013 Three-year decline in self-identified supporters 31% in 2010 … 21% in 2013 Plateaued national awareness 81% in 2010 … 83% in 2013 Decline in support among Republicans 65% in 2010 … 38% in 2013 Low proportion who say TP speaks for most Americans Just 24% Low proportion who say TP is improving the process 37% 32

Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus Loss of momentum Influence of the mass media 33

Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus Loss of momentum Influence of the mass media Disunity among conservatives 34

Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus Loss of momentum Influence of the mass media Disunity among conservatives Alleged absence of “intellectual rigor” 35

Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus Loss of momentum Influence of the mass media Disunity among conservatives Alleged absence of “intellectual rigor” Well-defined “what”, ill-defined “how” 36

Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus Loss of momentum Influence of the mass media Disunity among conservatives Alleged absence of “intellectual rigor” Well-defined “what”, ill-defined “how” Limitations in the Tea Party demographic profile 37

Absence of consistent national leadership – a singular voice, a trusted face, a laser focus Loss of momentum Influence of the mass media Disunity among conservatives Alleged absence of “intellectual rigor” Well-defined “what”, ill-defined “how” Limitations in the Tea Party demographic profile Death of the American Dream – lowering the bar 38

Prove your viability in 2014 Same vision, new strategies and tactics Measure what matters and respond accordingly If led properly, the Tea Party could move beyond hit- or-miss impact to substantially altering the national political landscape 39

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