The Health and Security Perspectives of Climate Change Asked to o.utline the UK experience using Physician led retrieval teams on operations The Health and Security Perspectives of Climate Change Surgeon Rear Admiral Lionel Jarvis Assistant Chief of Defence staff (Health) 1

Global Challenges Climate Change Population, Migration & Demographic Change Resource Scarcity State & Interstate Conflict

Pillars of Human Security Economic Development Economic Stability Personal Security Political Security Food Security Community & Education Health

Source – The Hadley Centre (Met Office) Impact of Climate Change – 2040 and beyond Reduced ice/snow cover Melting permafrost Melting glaciers Increasing temperatures Storm surges Ocean acidification Changes in extremes Increased droughts This warming will not be uniform with some parts of the globe experiencing much higher temperatures. As we look out towards 2040 though all areas of the globe will be experiencing similar effects to a greater or lesser extent. To give an example, modelling suggests that the temperatures experienced in Europe during the heatwave in Summer 2003, which killed 35,000 people (900 in London) and caused the closure of 17 nuclear power stations, will be an average day in Europe by 2040 and a cool day by 2060. Changing weather patterns Sea level rise Increased precipitation Source – The Hadley Centre (Met Office) Source – The Hadley Centre (Met Office) 4

In terms of demography we will see an increase from 6 In terms of demography we will see an increase from 6.5 to almost 9bn people. This population increase will be concentrated in the developing world who will constitute around 85% of the global population. Europe constituted 22% of the global population in 2050 but by 2040 it will be only 6%. Age differences will grow, the median age in Sub Saharan Africa will be around 24, whereas in Europe it will be around 47. Population increases will put demands on global resources supply, particularly as material expectations develop in areas of high population. 5

Urbanisation

Levels of Urbanisation - World 1900 1950 1990 2050 16% 30% 51% 60%

Public Health Consequences Over-crowding Poor Sanitation Food Shortage Water Shortage Disease Malnutrition

RESOURCE SHORTAGE WATER FOOD FUEL

“Tipping Point Climate Change”