Warm-Up Exercise 1 Write down at least three sets of three numbers that fit this rule: “Counting by fives”

Each card has a letter on one side and a number on the other. Two cards are letter-side up, and two of the cards are number- side up. The rule to be tested is this: for these four cards, if a card has a vowel on its letter side, it has an even number on its number side. Your task is to decide which card or cards must be turned over to find out whether the rule is true or false. Which cards must be turned over? AK85 Warm-Up Exercise 2 Imagine these four cards are sitting on a table:

Scientific Method Game I have made a rule for choosing three numbers. Your job is to use the scientific method to do a series of experiments to determine what my rule is until you are 100% sure you are correct. You should make a hypothesis about what my number rule is, and how sure you are. Then, choose three new numbers to test your hypothesis. I will come around after each guess and mark whether your numbers fit the rule

Hypothesis testing  The importance of ruling out alternative explanations  Testing predictions- a case study  Faulty science- a case study

Hypothesis testing  The importance of ruling out alternative explanations  Testing predictions- a case study  Faulty science- a case study

As seen above, four cards are sitting on a table. Each card has a letter on one side and a number on the other. Two cards are letter-side up, and two of the cards are number-side up. The rule to be tested is this: for these four cards, if a card has a vowel on its letter side, it has an even number on its number side. Your task is to decide which card or cards must be turned over to find out whether the rule is true or false. Which cards must be turned over? AK85

Hypothesis testing  The importance of ruling out alternative explanations  Testing predictions- a case study  Faulty science- a case study

Hypothesis testing  The importance of ruling out alternative explanations  Testing predictions- a case study  Faulty science- a case study

Hypothesis: Land animals evolved from fish

Hypotheses are based on prior knowledge

? What would the transition have looked like? Ichthyostega- -robust limbs that could support its body weight; -fishlike tail and gills -lungs -amphibian-like skull (neck) Eusthenopteron- -strictly aquatic, lobe-finned fish -teeth similar to tetrapods -two-part skull that hinged -fin skeletal structure more similar to tetrapods Predict what features you would expect in a transitional organism- body features as well as habitat? Where do you expect it to live? What might have been the selection pressures promoting a transition?

“We would need just one piece of evidence… …We would need the fossil that swam from one layer to another… Bring on any of those things and you would change me immediately.” What, if anything, would change your mind?

Educational Resources

Educational Resources

Hypothesis testing  The importance of ruling out alternative explanations  Testing predictions- a case study  Faulty science- a case study

Hypothesis testing  The importance of ruling out alternative explanations  Testing predictions- a case study  Faulty science- a case study

Wakefield 1999 Number of Enrolled Persons with Autism Distribution of Birth Rates of Regional Center – Eligible Persons with Autism

1998 Lancet paper (Wakefield) Study 12 children referred to the Royal Free Hospital in London due to developmental disorders Parents or physician of 8 linked start of behavioral symptoms with MMR vaccination It was later found that author had conflicts of interest ($) Author had applied for patents on a rival vaccine Author knew of test results that contradicted his claims

Compiled data from five cohort studies totaling over 1 million children and five case control studies with over 9,000 children No relationship between vaccination and autism Components of vaccine (thimerosal or mercury) or multiple vaccinations (MMR) were also not associated with development of autism Published in Vaccine, 2014

Bottom line- Students should learn to think critically NGS Important as citizens of our society Better to not take “our” word for it (experts), but evaluate the evidence – let the science speak for itself