Comparative Arab Experiences with Federalism Democratic Federalism – An Intensive Course offered to Iraqi University Faculty by the Forum of Federations – Amman, June 18 to July 5, 2007

Outline  Arab and Islamic experiences with diversity and unity  Successful federal experiences: The United Arab Emirates  Failed “federal” experiences: The United Arab Republic and the Yemeni unification process  Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding: Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan?

Arab and Islamic experiences with diversity and unity  Diversity in the Arab World:  Sources of diversity: ethnicity, language, and religion  Historical expressions of diversity  Provinces, governorates under the various Arab/Islamic empires  The millet system under the Ottoman empire  Unity in the Arab World:  The concept of the Umma  Arab nationalism – al qawmiyya al `arabiyya

Successful federal experiences : The United Arab Emirates (1) Context and Prerequisites  A history of past cooperation – The Trucial States (from to 1971)  A hostile regional environment – federalism as a bulwark against strong neighbours  Extensive border disputes – federalism as a mechanism of conflict-management  Extremely diverse units – asymmetrical federalism?

Successful federal experiences : The United Arab Emirates (2) Characteristics  A flexible and creatively ambiguous constitution  A founding (and renewed) compromise between wahdawis and ittihadis  A social compact based on rentierism  Supportive institutional structures

Failed “federal” experiences : (1)The United Arab Republic ( )  Context and prerequisites  Two competing visions: one quasi-federal, the other unitary  A union of equal partners: Coming together and staying apart  Domestic political struggles in Syria: Baathists vs. Communists  A consecration of Arab unity: Melding together  The aura of Gamal ‘Abd al-Nasser and the weight of Egypt  Plebiscite and the ratification of the Union  Characteristics  An unstable bipolar arrangement  No geographic contiguity  High asymmetry in size and capacity  Authoritarianism at the center  Egyptian dominance of political life and of the Syrian administration

Failed “federal” experiences: (2) Yemeni unification ( )  Context and prerequisites  The end of the Cold War  The discovery of oil and natural gas in the contested border area between North and South Yemen  but... the decision to back Iraq in its invasion of Kuwait  Characteristics  Two widely divergent systems

Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding (1): Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan?  Lebanon  Regions, what regions?  An extremely intermingled country – 17 minorities none of which (with the exception of the Druze community) is geographically concentrated  A logic of economic and administrative centralization – the overwhelming dominance of Greater Beirut  A problem of trust  A divided identity in a troubled regional context –The National Pact of 1943  Unity vs. diversity: Federal proposals and majoritarian democracy  An existing alternative:  A history of consociational powersharing

Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding (2): Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan?  Sudan  An extremely complex Comprehensive Peace Agreement  Building trust  Through institutions: Proportional division of power at the center  Overnight: A relatively short transitional period – 6 years from 2005 to the scheduled 2011 referendum with a 2009 democratic election deadline  Building capacity under duress: The creation of a new large region (Government of South Sudan)  A gap between the text of the CPA and the practice of the Government of National Unity under the stewardship of the ruling National Congress Party  Unity over diversity:  Concentration of power and decision-making responsibility in the Presidency – rule by decree  A breach of trust  Pairing agreement in the attribution of ministries is not respected  Only 40 SPLM/A members in the GNU  No meaningful inclusion of SPLM/A in the civil service and other national institutions

Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding (3): Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan?  Sudan  Serious flashpoints  The Abyei problem  The management of oil  Complicated by internal and external factors  Internal factors  The lack of NCP political will  The lack of SPLM/A capacity  The death of John Garang  External factors  The Ugandan LRA and the security situation in South Sudan  Chad and the support to Darfur rebels