WAS*ISWAS*IS Summer WAS * IS weather & society * integrated studies Changing from what WAS to what IS the future of integrated weather studies Eve Gruntfest & Julie Demuth July 13-21, 2006 Boulder, CO Welcome to Summer Camp for Smart Kids

Getting to Summer WAS*IS WAS*IS 1.Eve & Julie’s career journeys from grad student to WAS*IS crusaders 2. Justification for WAS*IS 3. Barriers we will overcome 4. WAS*IS measures of success

Eve’s role – applied geographer Social scientist in world of engineers & physical scientists Career based on Big Thompson Flood Focus: Flash floods & warning systems

The Big Thompson Flood in Colorado July 31, we’re going on Tuesday! 140 lives lost - 35 miles northwest of Boulder Studied the behaviors that night –Who lived? –Who died? –Led to detection & response systems

30 years later Signs FLASH FLOODS are recognized as different from slow rise floods Real- time detection, some response More federal agencies do flood “warning” Vulnerability increases

2006 National Weather Service overpromises Dams/ infrastructure aging Development pressure on open space

The Big Thompson Flood New focus for next generation of policy makers & scientists involved in flood mitigation – especially in Colorado

25 years as geography professor - Great opportunities - local, national, global Multi-disciplinary Partners- hydrologists, meteorologists Active involvement with User Groups –National Hydrologic Warning Council –Association of State Floodplain Managers –Cooperative Program on Operational Meteorology, Education & Training (COMET) –NATO conference, Work in Australia, India, France, Italy, England National Academy of Sciences Committees

Julie’s background M.S. in atmospheric research from Colorado State U. –Remote sensing of tropical cyclones Science policy at National Research Council –Program officer with Board on Atmospheric Sciences & Climate running congressionally mandated & agency- requested studies Interest in societal impacts … WAS*IS!

Integrate weather & social science to empower practitioners, researchers, & stakeholders to forge new relationships & to use new tools for more effective socio-economic applications & evaluations of weather products.

What is WAS*IS? Tools & concepts – communication, forecasting, GIS, qualitative research, decision making, economics, vulnerability, verification Skills – initiating & building relationships, overcoming barriers Capacity building – create a community for lifelong collaboration & support!

Why WAS*IS? How to integrate (not add) social science into meteorology? –Avoiding another Hurricane Katrina is NOT just about improving the models!! How to grow a community of people passionate about & dedicated to this? Crucial to recognizing & addressing societal impacts in a real, sustained way......

Why WAS*IS now? Growing recognition that (meteorology + social science) > sum of its parts! Vision for WAS*IS to be…  Culture changing!  Empowering!  Life changing!  Lifelong, team building!

WAS*IS Justification Making Culture Change happen - –Now & sustainably B I G WAS*IS idea lists to GROW By next Friday Large undisputable list of possibilities & priorities We have idealistic positive outlooks

WAS*IS is part of a movement -- Moving beyond rhetoric to action Research Experience for Undergraduates – hazard social science Bill Hooke’s American Meteorological Society policy program

The WAS*IS workshops Began as a one-time adventure Grew into 3 workshops (so far) & evolved –Original 2-part workshop in Boulder (November 2005 & March 2006) –Condensed 3-day workshop in Norman (April 2006) –Summer WAS*ISers WELCOME to the WAS*IS family !!!! Over 85 WAS * ISers !

“Tangible” accomplishments In-person interviews & development of on-line survey to elicit first responders’ weather needs & understanding Interdisciplinary development of conceptual model on communication & propagation of forecast uncertainty Development of forecast confidence scale on weather blog ( Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society article WAS*IS sessions at conferences – DEADLINe sOON! WxSoc newsgroup – register at

ELITE! You are the ELITE! More than 60 applications – 31 are here! Senior officials, Grad students Practitioners, Researchers Consultants, Federal officials

Summer WAS*IS particularities More social scientists More senior participants Build on earlier workshop lessons Take advantage of meals, breaks to interact with everyone... it’s your chance to build your networks More open time – posing questions for discussion, brainstorming about problems and possibilities, new directives and initiatives –Invent creative, previously unimagined new tools, case studies, & implementation strategies –Life-long commitment from many vantage points – researchers, practitioners, various backgrounds, public & private

Some WAS*IS long-term possibilities – by next FRIDAY you ADD & CONTRIBUTE to list Summer 2007 workshop Applications for WAS*IS beyond weather Short course for AMS, for National Weather Service (in person or distance learning) WAS*IS for introducing meteorology to social scientists Development of edited collection &/or book proposal Ongoing annual WAS * IS Shorter, more focused, courses (e.g., qualitative research methods) Advanced WAS*ISes Development of Capstone course for meteorology students at University of Oklahoma Funding to support WAS*IS research & applications

Fort Collins & Big Thompson Canyon field trip & National Weather Service forecast office New model Gina will talk about this

Highlights: Distinguished presenters Drobot, Joys of collaboration & motivations for people to drive through floods Morss, Problem definitions & end-to-end-to-end process Wilhelmi, GIS vulnerability exercise Lazo, Overview of weathery economic case studies Hayden & Pulwarty, interactions with Climate & Health workshop Thursday Pay close attention to substance & style! What messages get across & how Less blah blah, more interactions

Drobot, Hayden, Gruntfest, Barnes - Successful interdisciplinary collaboration as a result of WAS*IS I Morss & Hayden - Qualitative research

Recognition & highlighting WAS*IS talent & research i.e. Rebecca Morss’s Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society articles on problem definition & end-to-end-to-end process

New conceptual model of false alarms & close calls Event followed warning as specified Event occurred but was less severe than warning Event occurred but was more severe than warning Warning was issued but event did not occur Warning was not issued but event occurred Connecticut False Evacuation December 2004 Tsunami Hurricanes Fran & Bertha False Alarm Perfect Warning Unwarned Event Red River Flood Oklahoma Tornados Model developed by your colleague! Lindsey Barnes 2004

How much time are people in the U.S. under tornado warnings? How much does tornado warning lead time costs each person in the U.S.? WE NEED TO DEVELOP NEW MEANINGFUL USEFUL METRICS (master’s work by Somer Erickson -- U. Oklahoma) Master’s thesis of Somer Erickson:

SUMMER WAS*IS groundrules … New partners -- unknown territory! NEW parameters & vocabularies ACTIVE & RESPECTFUL listening & talking No acronyms All ideas are welcome AGENDA more open to allow SUMMER WAS*IS identities to emerge & develop for sustainable activities after our summer camp for smart kids ends BE BRAVE

Seven barriers WAS*ISers confront & overcome 1.POWERlessness: I want to do it but I don’t know how 2. Social science methods are a mystery 3. Surveys are not encouraged 4. Disciplinary blinders -“I’m not a meteorologist, I’m an engineer” & vice versa

5. I can’t do it right so I won’t do it at all – Need for “Satisficing”! 6.It’s not in my job description 7. Old-fashioned metrics - why are forecasts valuable now? Perceive yourself as a charismatic policy entrepreneur Barriers WAS*ISers confront & overcome

SUMMER WAS*IS succeeds when we see New effective methods New experiments – move from discipline stovepipes –Specifically how do we bring social science into existing programs & research efforts & in sustainable ways -- NOW not sometime –Tired of going to workshops where NOTHING lasts- - - –WAS*ISers… it’s up to YOU

Some SUMMER WAS*IS measures of success -- Toward culture change 1.A new community of scholars & practitioners – use each other’s materials! - ideas for presentations, publications, proposals 2.Examples of new alliances/removed barriers 3.Practical new & tried methods

Launching SUMMER WAS*IS – R E C A P One full week workshop Commitment to Change! The BEST & the BRIGHTEST MODEST GOAL – WAS CHANGING the culture from WAS to IS

Remember Margaret Mead’s words: Never doubt that a small, group of thoughtful, committed group* can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has. (* of WAS*ISers)

Who or what warning agency was most credible during the 1993 Midwestern U.S. floods?

End users 1993 W A S

End users 2006 still WAS!

What did the most influential players look like in meteorology prior to 2006 WAS*IS?

WAS * ISers are NOT the same old guys with new toys

The new fiesta – SUMMER WAS * ISers!

Fairy tale comes true - Thanks to US Weather Research Program The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) The National Center for Atmospheric Research Linda Mearns, Institute for the Study of Society & the Environment (ISSE) & JEFF LAZO & the Societal Impacts Program (SIP)

After Big Thompson, 30 years of being Frustrated at being a social science ADD ON –(religious figure – good to hear from once a year or so) but … no enduring impacts Left out of major scientific initiatives Being encouraged but kept separate & unequal If only we had more WAS*ISers with us on our journeys!!! Burrell & Eve go to grad school together & many years later to Australia & Slovenia & are co-authors

If you have always done it that way, it is probably wrong. -- Charles Kettering

WAS*ISWAS*IS CULTURE CHANGE weather & society * integrated workshops Changing from what WAS to what IS the future of integrated weather studies Now, let’s get to work