Providing more useful (uncertain) scientific information for decision-making: End-to-end-to-end research Rebecca E. Morss (NCAR), Olga Wilhelmi, Mary Downton, and Eve Gruntfest

Rebecca E. MorssBoulder WAS*IS II Workshop17 July 2006 Qualitative research study to improve scientific information about flood risk for use in flood management decisions Lessons learned on the interactions among scientific information, (uncertainty,) and decision-making End-to-end-to-end research Discussion Outline

Rebecca E. MorssBoulder WAS*IS II Workshop17 July 2006 Motivation for study Despite flood risk management, flood damages remain high – : average of $4.5 billion property damage, 98 deaths per year in U.S. Flood risk management relies on estimates of risk of extreme flooding –– which are uncertain for multiple reasons Focus region: Colorado Front Range

Rebecca E. MorssBoulder WAS*IS II Workshop17 July 2006

How is scientific information about extreme flooding used in flood management decision- making? How does uncertainty in risk of extreme flooding interact with flood management decision-making? What new or improved scientific information about flood risk could we provide that would benefit flood management decision-making? Research questions for study

Rebecca E. MorssBoulder WAS*IS II Workshop17 July 2006 Some findings Decision-makers (practitioners) are diverse, unique, and intertwined

Rebecca E. MorssBoulder WAS*IS II Workshop17 July 2006 Local government floodplain manager A decision- maker

Rebecca E. MorssBoulder WAS*IS II Workshop17 July 2006 Local government agencies (e.g., floodplain management) Web of decision- makers Professional associations Private engineering consultants Private land developers Public (e.g., homeowners) Private businesses Local government elected officials State & regional governments Federal government

Rebecca E. MorssBoulder WAS*IS II Workshop17 July 2006 Some findings Practitioners’ ability and motivation to use new methods/information are often limited by political, technical, resource, and contextual constraints –For information to be useful, it must apply to practitioners’ specific decision-making settings –Relationships, trust, and credibility can be important Assumptions can create barriers –To provide useful information, scientists must interact with practitioners regularly, to learn to appreciate their perspective, constraints, and decision-making context So, to help surmount these challenges …

Rebecca E. MorssBoulder WAS*IS II Workshop17 July 2006 Scientists’ traditional or “end-to-end” view of research & development

Rebecca E. MorssBoulder WAS*IS II Workshop17 July 2006 Scientists’ traditional or “end-to-end” view of research & development

Rebecca E. MorssBoulder WAS*IS II Workshop17 July 2006 “End-to-end-to-end” research & development to aid decision-making

Rebecca E. MorssBoulder WAS*IS II Workshop17 July 2006 End-to-end-to end research involves Integrated (interdisciplinary), problem-oriented research & development that incorporates decision-makers’ needs and considerations Multiple iterations through process, with frequent multidirectional communication and feedback Mutual education, building trust & credibility Long-term partnerships among researchers, product developers, and practitioners Co-production of knowledge and tools

Questions and Discussion