Gambling For Knowledge: An Examination of the Use of Futures Markets as Information Gathering Devices.

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Presentation transcript:

Gambling For Knowledge: An Examination of the Use of Futures Markets as Information Gathering Devices.

Steve’s Grade? You Decide!

Efficient Market Hypothesis It’s Like Watching CNN Twenty- Four-Seven, without the Boring and Annoying Commentators!

The “Lots of People Hypothesis” Ancient Economic Proverb: “Ten Fools are as good as One Wise Man.”

Marginal Traders Dirty Capitalists!

Iowa Electronic Markets Buy And Sell Politicians! Yes, it is Legal. Predict Election Outcomes

Accuracy Predicted Last four Presidential Elections to within 2% of the Popular Vote Better than Opinion Polls Predicted 99 out of 100 elections in North America and Western Europe.

1996 Presidential Election

Market Research Experimental Market with potential products are traded. Products Ranked based on Settled Price.

Foresight Exchange Will George W. Die? Will we develop Cold Fusion? Will Steve Get an “A” on his presentation?

Future Uses? Hedging Risk Evaluating Scientific Claims Futarchy

Societal Concerns Markets can be expensive and Complicated Economics Literacy is Low Lots of Fraud Investing Conflict of Interest

Ethical Concerns God Says: Gambling is Wrong!

Death of Democracy I am Robin Hanson! We Economists Will Rule over the Poor and The Uninformed!! Bwa Ha Ha Ha!!

Josh Says That Economics Is Fun!