Daniel Kull Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) World Bank Geneva, 19 November, 2012 Focus on Climate Risk: Preliminary Perceptions of Client Needs

Overview DPSIR Model Driving forces, pressure and state statistics so far manageable Impacts statistics difficult Response statistics even more difficult Clients need help to measure changes in resilience Indicators as part of a results framework Part of the "country statistics" to be measured regularly What would be useful to define resilience for people, economic systems and ecosystems? 2

Economic & non-economic losses from climate extremes –GDP per capita is often well correlated with other measures of resilience. –Allows measurement of trends and any improvements due to interventions. Resilience of ecoystems –Ecosystem services (WAVES partnership) –Ecosystem fragmentation 3 Example resilience data needs

Cash income at household level –For example % of the population that improves its cash income by a certain amount –Evidence shows financial capacity is linked to adaptive capacity –Some satisfactory coverage already Diversification of food and/or income sources –Not generally measured as yet Population dependent on subsistence farming –Rain-fed agriculture as a less satisfactory proxy 4

Pilot Program for Climate Resilience 5 PPCR Goal = Mainstream climate resilience into development for transformational change PPCR Pledges to date: US$ 1.1 billion Focus on 9 countries and 2 regions Measuring Success  Increased capacity to integrate climate resilience into development.  Increased awareness of vulnerabilities and potential impacts.  Scaled-up investments for broader interventions and programming.  Improved coordination among stakeholders.  Capture & transfer of lessons learned. Measuring Success  Increased capacity to integrate climate resilience into development.  Increased awareness of vulnerabilities and potential impacts.  Scaled-up investments for broader interventions and programming.  Improved coordination among stakeholders.  Capture & transfer of lessons learned.

PPCR Results Framework 6

PPCR Core Indicators A1. Increased resilience of households, communities, businesses, sectors and society to climate variability and climate change 1.Change in percentage of households (in areas at risk) whose livelihoods have improved (acquisition of productive assets, food security during sensitive periods of the year) 2.Change in damage/losses ($) from extreme climate events in areas at risks that are the geographical focus of PPCR intervention 3.Numbers of people supported by the PPCR to cope with effects of climate change 4.Percentage of people with year round access to reliable water supply (domestic, agricultural, industrial) 7

PPCR Core Indicators A2. Strengthened climate responsive development planning 1.Degree of integration of climate change in national planning - e.g., national communications to UNFCCC, national strategies, PRSPs, core sector strategies, annual development plans and budgets, and NAPs 2.Changes in budget allocations of all levels of government to take into account effects of climate variability and change B1. Strengthened adaptive outcomes 1.Vulnerable households, communities and businesses use improved tools, instruments, strategies, activities to respond to climate variability and change 8

PPCR Core Indicators B2. Improved institutional framework in place 1.Evidence of strengthened government capacity and coordination mechanism to mainstream climate resilience B3. Use of climate information in decision making routinely applied 1.X number of climate information products/services used in Y number of climate sensitive sectors in decision making at various levels B4. Improved sector planning and regulation for climate resilience 1.X number of climate sensitive sectors adopted regulatory reforms that incorporate climate resilience 9

PPCR Core Indicators B5. Climate responsive investment approaches identified and implemented 1.Leverage ratio of PPCR funding against public and private investments in climate sensitive sectors 2.Climate responsive financial instruments/ investment models developed and tested 10

Conclusions Link statistics to results frameworks to help to measure longer term and transformational changes Collect on a regular basis National, sub-national and local levels Open data policies 11