Robert Wilby Professor of Hydroclimatic Modelling Loughborough University Ethics Working Group Burleigh Court, Loughborough University, June 2014

Who am I? ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014 A bloke with poor taste in T-shirts Geographer (who can count) PhD Climate Change and the Recovery of Acidified Catchments (1991) 10 different jobs in last 25 years Professor of Hydroclimatic Modelling at Loughborough University, UK (2008-) Pragmatic about use of climate science to achieve positive outcomes for human development and freshwater environments Thrives on in-country research and capacity support

Research into uncertainty (hydrology) ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

A proto quantification of uncertainty elements Emissions GCMDownscalingStructureParametersAll combined Conditional probabilities of lower summer flows in the River Thames by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Source: Wilby and Harris (2006) ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

Climate science into practice ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

Sometimes taking a very very long-term view ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014 Phase 1 : Consent, design, construction (~10 years) Phase 2 : Operational power plant (~60 years) Phase 3 : Decommissioning (~20 years) Phase 4 : Storage of spent fuel (~80 years)

Favourite paper…because… ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014 Hallegatte (2009) Global Environmental Change, 19, 240–247

ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014 StrategiesDefinitionExamples (Tajikistan energy sector) Low-regret Measures that yield benefits even in the absence of climate change Energy efficiency measures; water efficiency measures; real-time monitoring and forecasting of fluvial flood risk factors; upgrading infrastructure to higher specification on replacement Reversible Measures that aim to keep as low as possible the cost of being wrong Temporary winter rooms / verandas; periodic review and adjustment of operating rules for hydropower to maximize head and minimize spill Safety margin Extra ‘headroom’ to absorb climate change and reduce vulnerability at low or no cost Precautionary allowance applied to peak river flows used in dam height and spillway design Soft Institutional or financial measures that plan for and/or spread risks Early warning systems for snowmelt and rainfall- triggered landslides Shorten time horizon Uncertainty in future climate conditions countered by reducing the lifetime of investments Cheaper or modular infrastructure that can be replaced as climate risks emerge Integrated Manage positive and negative side- effects of adaptation actions, including trade-offs with other sectors Integrated land and water management to reduce sediment loads; conjunctive operation of multiple infrastructure assets Practical steps can be taken despite uncertainty

Tools to support adaptation decisions (1) ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014 Tools to support adaptation decisions (2) Screen shot from Google Earth tool demonstrating VU93 metrics in Dhamar, Yemen.

ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014 Tools to support adaptation decisions (3) Cross-validated model forecasts with lead-time one month (Q1) compared with long-term monthly mean discharge (the Zero Order Forecast). Source: Dixon and Wilby (submitted)

Helping to build capacity (climate services) ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014

Lest we forget the importance of observations ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014 Loughborough University TEmperature Network (LUTEN) Thermal ‘shockwave’ in the River Dove 28 June 2012

ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014 Hydrology class Shanghai-style Avoiding ‘climate exceptionalism’