From financial wisdom, better stewardship. SM Copyright © 2015 AMDG Services Inc. M ANAGING I NVESTMENTS IN T URBULENT T IMES.

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Presentation transcript:

From financial wisdom, better stewardship. SM Copyright © 2015 AMDG Services Inc. M ANAGING I NVESTMENTS IN T URBULENT T IMES

Investor Discipline I.Humans Are Not Wired for Disciplined Investing II.Many Investors Follow Their Emotions III.Reacting Can Hurt Performance IV.Markets Have Rewarded Discipline V.Focus on What You Can Control IP2400 2

Humans Are Not Wired for Disciplined Investing 3 When people follow their natural instincts, they tend to apply faulty reasoning to investing. IP2400

Many Investors Follow Their Emotions 4 People may struggle to separate their emotions from their investment decisions. Following a reactive cycle of excessive optimism and fear may lead to poor decisions at the worst times. IP2410

Reacting Can Hurt Performance 5 In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Performance data for January 1970–August 2008 provided by CRSP; performance data for September 2008–December 2014 provided by Bloomberg. S&P data provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. US bonds and bills data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Performance of the S&P 500 Index, 1970­-­2014 IP2415 Missing only a few days of strong returns can drastically impact overall performance. Total Period Missed 1 Best Day Missed 5 Best Single Days Missed 15 Best Single Days Missed 25 Best Single Days One- Month US T-Bills Annualized Compound Return 10.47%10.21%9.42%8.11%7.01%5.05%

Markets Have Rewarded Discipline 6 In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. MSCI data © MSCI 2015, all rights reserved. Growth of a dollar—MSCI World Index (net dividends), 1970–2014 IP2420 $43 US home prices hit bottom Fiscal cliff worries Euro zone debt crisis S&P 500 down 46% Subprime mortgage crisis Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Iraq war begins Dotcom stock crash 9/11 terrorist attack Y2K Scare Russian financial crisis Asian currency crisis Income tax rates rate Iraq invades Kuwait Savings and loan crisis Dow drops 23% on Black Monday US inflation at 13.5% BusinessWeek: “The Death of Equities” Gold hits record high S&P 500 down 43% Oil prices quadruple Arab oil embargo A disciplined investor looks beyond the concerns of today to the long-term growth potential of markets. $45 US home prices hit bottom Fiscal cliff worries Eurozone debt crisis S&P 500 down 46% Subprime mortgage crisis Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Iraq war begins Dotcom stock crash 9/11 terrorist attacks Y2K Scare Russian financial crisis Asian currency crisis Income tax rates rise Iraq invades Kuwait Savings and loan crisis Dow drops 23% on Black Monday US inflation at 13.5% BusinessWeek: “The Death of Equities” Gold hits record high S&P 500 down 43% Oil prices quadruple Arab oil embargo

Focus on What You Can Control 7 Diversification neither ensures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market. No one can reliably forecast the market’s direction or predict which stock or investment manager will outperform. A financial adviser can help you create a plan and focus on actions that add value. IP2425 Creating an investment plan to fit your needs and risk tolerance Structuring a portfolio around dimensions of returns Diversifying broadly Reducing expenses and turnover Minimizing taxes

8 IP2135 Likewise, trying to anticipate the movement of the market adds anxiety and undue risk. Picking the Fastest Lane Is a Stressful Guessing Game

The Capital Markets Have Rewarded Long-Term Investors 9 Monthly growth of wealth ($1), 1926–2014 $18,176 US Small Cap Index $5,313 US Large Cap Index $135 Long-Term Government Bonds Index $21 Treasury Bills $13 Inflation (CPI) IP2315 In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. US Small Cap Index is the CRSP 6–10 Index; US Large Cap Index is the S&P 500 Index; Long-Term Government Bonds Index is 20-year US government bonds; Treasury Bills are One- Month US Treasury bills; Inflation is the Consumer Price Index. CRSP data provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. University of Chicago. Bonds, T-bills, and inflation data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).

Diversification I.Diversification Helps You Capture What Global Markets Offer II.Diversification Reduces Risks That Have No Expected Return III.Diversification May Prevent You from Missing Opportunity IV.Diversification Smoothes Out Some of the Bumps V.Diversification Helps Take the Guesswork out of Investing IP2200 Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. 10

Outsmarting other investors is tough 11 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. In US dollars.. US-domiciled mutual fund data is from the CRSP Survivor-Bias-Free US Mutual Fund Database, provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. Beginning sample includes funds as of the beginning of the 15-year period ending in The number of funds as of the beginning is indicated below the exhibit. Survivors are funds that are still in existence as of December 31, Winners are funds that survive and beat their respective benchmarks over the period. Funds are identified using Lipper fund classification codes and are matched to their respective benchmarks at the beginning of the sample period. Loser funds are funds that did not survive the period or whose cumulative return did not exceed their respective benchmark. Few mutual funds survive and beat their benchmarks 15-year performance period ending December 31, 2014 IP2140 2,711 FUNDS AT BEGINNING 733 FUNDS AT BEGINNING 19% Survived and beat the benchmark 8% Survived and beat the benchmark EQUITY FUNDS FIXED INCOME FUNDS BeginningSurvivorsWinners BeginningSurvivorsWinners

Diversification Helps You Capture What Global Markets Offer 12 The global equity market is large and represents a world of investment opportunity. In US dollars. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Market cap data is free-float adjusted from Bloomberg securities data. Many nations not displayed. Total may not equal 100% due to rounding. For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. China market capitalization excludes A-shares, which are generally only available to mainland China investors. For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. Percent of world market capitalization as of December 31, countries Approximately 12,000 publicly traded stocks $46.8 trillion market value IP2205

Diversification Reduces Risks That Have No Expected Return 13 Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Concentrating in one stock exposes you to unnecessary risks. Diversification reduces the impact of any one company’s performance on your wealth. IP2210

Diversification May Prevent You from Missing Opportunity 14 Source: Bloomberg, London Share Price Database, and Centre for Research in Finance. Compound average annual returns are in US dollars. The returns are from the following developed and emerging markets: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, and the United States. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risks, including fluctuating values and potential loss of principal. Compound average annual returns: Attempting to identify that group of future winners is a guessing game. Diversification improves the odds of holding the best performers. IP2215 All stocks Excluding the top 10% of performers each year Excluding the top 25% of performers each year

Diversification Smoothes Out Some of the Bumps 15 Illustrative examples. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. A well-diversified portfolio can provide the opportunity for a more stable outcome than a single security. IP2220

Diversification Helps Take the Guesswork out of Investing 16 In US dollars. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Source: S&P data provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Russell data copyright © Russell Investment Group , all rights reserved. Dow Jones data provided by Dow Jones Indexes. Dimensional Index data compiled by Dimensional. MSCI data © 2015, all rights reserved. The BofA Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; copyright 2015 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation. Barclays Capital data is provided by Barclays Bank PLC. Citigroup bond indices © 2015 by Citigroup. You never know which markets will outperform from year to year. By holding a globally diversified portfolio, investors are positioned to capture returns wherever they occur. Annual returns (%): 2000–2014 IP2200