Joint Action Group for Operational Community Modeling (JAG/OCM) update Spring COPC 2010 Mr. Evan Kuchera JAG/OCM Chair

2 Overview JAG/OCM membership Status of Initiatives COPC AI : AFWA, FNMOC, and NAVOCEANO will review, sign, and implement the WestPac alignment/backup plan document, Option 1, and continue to explore implementation of Option 2. COPC AI : JAG/OCM shall investigate and propose a Southwest Asia (SWA) alignment area as a possible attachment to the Alignment of OCONUS Coarse Mesoscale Windows at AFWA and FNMOC document. COPC AI : JAG/OCM shall propose a delineation of algorithm development responsibilities among the OPC’s for variables of shared interest, and a plan for how these algorithms could be incorporated into operations. Recommendations

3 JAG/OCM Membership AFWA—Evan Kuchera (Chair) NOAA/NCEP—Bill Lapenta FNMOC—Roger Stocker NAVO—Frank Bub NRL/MRY– Pat Phoebus CNMOC—Steve Payne OFCM—Ken Barnett

4 Interagency Environmental Modeling Concept of Operations (IEMCO) Signed 18 Jan 2008: 0-3 year plan for interagency modeling AFWA to use NCEP’s NAM in North America AFWA and FNMOC to align WRF/COAMPS domains OCONUS for backup support and eventually ensembles Migration to common software

5 COPC AI Align WestPac for Backup Summary: FNMOC/AFWA align one domain (WestPac) and exchange minimum set of necessary variables on identical grid Serves as “hot” backup in case of outage Pathfinder for full alignment of common-area domains Pathfinder for future ensemble alignment

6 COPC AI Align WestPac for Backup Task largely complete AFWA implemented WestPac WRF domain that matched operational FNMOC COAMPS domain NAVO was able to ingest and use AFWA grids to initialize ocean models Still some technical issues utilizing “come and get it” data servers being worked Option 2 (expanded window for NAVO) still not feasible with current resources

7 COPC AI SWA alignment Summary: Attempts to address this task revealed fundamental problems with the backup/alignment plan FNMOC does not yet have the resources to run such a large area at ~18 km resolution

8 COPC AI SWA Alignment Other issues—more than just a lack of resources Alignment is a major change for both centers Reluctance from some to use significant resources to cover areas of low operational importance Flexibility to make future changes is restricted once aligned Ensemble development tracks currently very different AFWA desires to go operational in late 2010 with multiple mesoscale domains FNMOC taking slower and more limited approach—several years from operations

9 COPC AI SWA Alignment FNMOC proposed graphics-based backup as interim step until resources are available for alignment Domains need not match exactly, but still need to be modified to cover key geographical areas Run “cold” only as needed (centers exchange priorities) Gridded data would come at next step AFWA 16 WS proposed using global models All areas are covered with gridded data—NCEP would need be leveraged as well Still need to ensure necessary variables are produced Horizontal resolution degradations are large (40-55 km vs km)

10 COPC AI SWA Alignment Original alignment plan (IEMCO) Requires additional computing resources and much higher prioritization to accomplish at the centers Currently, centers are working many other tasks— middle managers reluctant to work on alignment (major change) without higher prioritization Result still worth working toward—not impossible Modified alignment plan (vice IEMCO plan) If a simpler approach is desired, what gets sacrificed (use of gridded data, horizontal resolution, etc) Can be accomplished more rapidly and with fewer resources/disruptions

11 COPC AI Algorithm Sharing/Implementation Focus has been on mechanism to get new algorithms into operations NCAR working on unified post-processor for NCEP AFWA proposed leveraging that effort for the wider community, NCAR/NCEP concurred Navy has reservations with using quasi-government entity for software repository AFWA business model is to use non-DoD/DoC community software—not sure how to reconcile Benefits Not only easy sharing across OPCs but also more rapid transition from research to operations

12 COPC AI Algorithm Sharing/Implementation Establish working group? Meeting of interested stakeholders to be held at NCAR in late June (given COPC concurrence) Group will decide change management, IA, software structure, input/output requirements Address needs of differing model datasets Understand and address Navy concerns with NCAR

13 JAG Recommendations Implement WestPac model domain (COPC AI ) Close Alignment of SWA domains (COPC AI ) Decision on future development path requested Algorithms/Post-Processing (COPC AI ) Concurrence on plan to house software at NCAR, develop operational plan

14 Backup Slides

15 IEMCO: In support of U.S. National Security Strategy, AFWA and FNMOC will mutually coordinate and run limited area windows over 4-5 fixed theaters (SE Asia/West Pac, Europe, SW Asia, Central America/Caribbean/N South America, and if needed, Africa). Immediate focus will be to adjust current DoD theater windows for spatial and resolution alignment.

WAFRICA WPAC