Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 2011 Review Kenny James Forecaster With contributions from Faye Barthold, Mike Bodner, Keith Brill, Mike Folmer, Jim Hoke, Dave Novak, Bob Oravec, Dan Petersen, and Mike Schichtel 1

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Objectives 2 Summary of HPC operations Verification/Feedback/Future of - QPF - Winter weather - Medium range - Testbed activities

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center HPC Operations Model Diagnostics Surface Analysis QPF Daily Weather Map Short Term Weather Medium Range Alaska Med. Range Tropical Hydrometeorological guidance for: NWS field offices Other NCEP centers Federal/state agencies Aviation Media Private sector International partners Academic community General public Winter Weather Surface Analysis QPF Daily Weather Map Short Term Weather Medium RangeWinter Weather Alaska Med. Range Tropical Model Diagnostics 3

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center QPF 4 Irene Mississippi Birds Point levee

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center % Improvement over NAM 31% % Improvement over GFS 25% % Improvement over ECMWF 13% FY11 annual GPRA Goal 0.3, HPC 0.34 – 2 nd highest ever 5

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 6

QPF Feedback Latest NAM (NEMS-NMMB) shows some improvement over prior version, possibly attributed to less of a slow biasLatest NAM (NEMS-NMMB) shows some improvement over prior version, possibly attributed to less of a slow bias NAM CONUSNEST shows better skill than parent runNAM CONUSNEST shows better skill than parent run GFS more consistent and reliable since July 2010 implementation, more often the model of choice compared to pre-July 2010 versionGFS more consistent and reliable since July 2010 implementation, more often the model of choice compared to pre-July 2010 version 7

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Positional biases continue for MCSs From Yost and Schumacher, 2011 NAM & GFS 8

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 0.25” in F24 Perfect SREF May 2010 – June 2011 SREF SREF overconfident HPC PQPF – Gaining popularity! Mean/spread useful - contribute to variance for PQPF, but also overconfident 9

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Hi-res NMM/ARW Often improve upon the north bias for MCSsOften improve upon the north bias for MCSs Still a high bias with many false alarmsStill a high bias with many false alarms Missed have them July 19/20 during recordMissed have them July 19/20 during record flooding due to preemption for tropical invest systems flooding due to preemption for tropical invest systems Contribute to a hi-res ensemble suite (SSEO)Contribute to a hi-res ensemble suite (SSEO) compiled at the SPC compiled at the SPC 10

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Winter Weather 11

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center HPC Deterministic Snowfall East of the Rockies Heavily influenced by 2 major snowstorms, which models had difficulty with 12 x 100

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center East of the Rockies HPC Deterministic Snowfall 13.

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Winter Wx Feedback Winter Wx Feedback - influences precip type & snow amounts in our WWD blender, forecasters less confident New NAM too deep with lows Oct 28, Nov 1, 8, Image from WFO La Crosse

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Winter Wx Feedback Cont. P-type & SN based on microphysics/LSM dataP-type & SN based on microphysics/LSM data Would like additional parameters for our WWD blenderWould like additional parameters for our WWD blender - NAM CONEST 700 mb temps - NAM CONEST 700 mb temps - UKMET 78 hr 2m/925/850/700 mb temps - UKMET 78 hr 2m/925/850/700 mb temps Impact-based guidance to assist in decision support and determining societal impactsImpact-based guidance to assist in decision support and determining societal impacts - SREF prob of ZR (0.1, 0.10, 0.25, etc..), Max SN rate - SREF prob of ZR (0.1, 0.10, 0.25, etc..), Max SN rate 16

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Medium Range 17

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 1) RTMA based downscaling 2) Model 2m temps replace HPC adjusted MOS and GEFS MOS 3) GMOS replaces MEX MOS 5) 50 day bias corrected ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble Mean 6) 50 day bias corrected GFS and GEFS Mean 4) GMOS / GFS MEX MOS Hybrid 6 upgrades over the past year! Manually Adjusted Days 4-7 Grid Verification vs RTMA 18

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center GFS/GEFS Fast Bias Medium Range Feedback 19 -Verification white -GFS yellow -GEFS members brown too fast

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center GFS MOS Max T day 7 possibly bogus Max T at Roswell, NM much higher Medium Range Feedback 20

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Medium Range Feedback NAEFS grids for all NDFD parametersNAEFS grids for all NDFD parameters More model guidance for watch/warning decision support & for determining societal impactsMore model guidance for watch/warning decision support & for determining societal impacts - GEFS probs for SN > 4, 8, 12”, ZR > 0.01, 0.10, 0.25” - GEFS probs for SN > 4, 8, 12”, ZR > 0.01, 0.10, 0.25” - Heat index > 105, Wind Chill 25 or 35 kts - Heat index > 105, Wind Chill 25 or 35 kts Access to parallel runs of the GFS/GEFS without adaptive sounding dataAccess to parallel runs of the GFS/GEFS without adaptive sounding data Hopeful that the improved NAM leads to a better DGEXHopeful that the improved NAM leads to a better DGEX 21

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Testbed Interactions Active collaboration with EMC and sister Testbeds - Spring/Winter Experiments - Verification & Tools Helps diagnose model errors & train forecasters - Convection-allowing guidance - Explicit microphysics diagnostics - New models/post processing Desire even closer coordination on model /MOS imp. GOES-R Proving Ground 22

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Final thoughts & plans Interpreting hi-res guidance may require a paradigm shiftInterpreting hi-res guidance may require a paradigm shift Native grid resolution desired by forecastersNative grid resolution desired by forecasters Clearer file naming convention for modelsClearer file naming convention for models HPC plans & activities include: HPC plans & activities include: - Expand decision support services for high impact events - Expand decision support services for high impact events - Extend medium range, including adding probabilities - Extend medium range, including adding probabilities - Increase automation for greater responsiveness - Increase automation for greater responsiveness 23

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Questions? 24