Getting Downscaled Climate Forecasts to Local Users Mark Shafer Director of Climate Information Oklahoma Climatological Survey March 9, 2004

Climate Forecasts Probabilistic departures from normal

Climate Forecasts Solution: Downscaling Problem: Seasonal periods, Large areas

Making Forecasts Meaningful to the Clientele What do these probability shifts mean? What do these probability shifts mean? How to explain it to the users? How to explain it to the users? Is putting these new products on a website enough? Is putting these new products on a website enough? Challenge: local users must be aware of products and know how to integrate them into operations Challenge: local users must be aware of products and know how to integrate them into operations

Who will provide downscaled climate forecasts? (1)NWS directly conducts service and outreach program pros: people closest to the information source provide the service pros: people closest to the information source provide the service cons: requires tremendous investment of new resources cons: requires tremendous investment of new resources (2)NWS partners with existing service organizations pros: utilizes existing media, technology, and relationships pros: utilizes existing media, technology, and relationships cons: requires “buy-in” by other organizations cons: requires “buy-in” by other organizations

Choosing the Right Model Each model has advantages and disadvantages, so which to choose Each model has advantages and disadvantages, so which to choose Have to pick a method that meshes with other governmental programs Have to pick a method that meshes with other governmental programs All of this is structured by Federalism All of this is structured by Federalism

Federalism The framework that governs relationships between constituent governments Multiple arenas, shifting balance of power Each arena has an “area of competence”, but it does not function in isolation Resources and knowledge are shared among governments, both horizontally and vertically

Federalism Constitutional Basis: Defines national powers while sovereignty in other areas retained by the states Ambiguity: multiple arenas, multiple branches creates competition for power Supreme Court limits federal powers, but gives free reign on conditions attached to grants Political dynamic – negotiation & rules

Stages of Federalism I: Small Government (1789 – 1930s) II: New Deal (1930s – 1960s) III: Great Society (1960s – 1970s) IV: New Federalism (1980s – present)

New Federalism Characteristics Dual sovereignty: “sorting out” functions among arenas of government Dual sovereignty: “sorting out” functions among arenas of government Devolution: more local discretion Devolution: more local discretion Limited funding: budget deficits constrain programs Limited funding: budget deficits constrain programs

Climate Services & New Federalism multiple providers – multiple arenas of government: federal, regional, state, local multiple providers – multiple arenas of government: federal, regional, state, local discretion: each provider sets own priorities discretion: each provider sets own priorities Limited funding: most state and local offices are small; taking on new tasks requires additional resources Limited funding: most state and local offices are small; taking on new tasks requires additional resources Deficit: federal budget deficit means agency budgets likely to remain flat, at best Deficit: federal budget deficit means agency budgets likely to remain flat, at best

Back to original question: Who will provide downscaled climate forecasts? Federal budget restraints mean NWS cannot add staff – must rely on other climate service partners Federal budget restraints mean NWS cannot add staff – must rely on other climate service partners Limited state resources mean state offices cannot take on additional services Limited state resources mean state offices cannot take on additional services

Solution? Federal and regional agencies provide quality- assured, consistent data sets and web-based products, lessening the need for state offices to develop tools independently Federal and regional agencies provide quality- assured, consistent data sets and web-based products, lessening the need for state offices to develop tools independently NWS Forecast offices train people on the “public desk” to utilize existing climate data and products (i.e., ACIS, cooperative observer-based products, climate studies) NWS Forecast offices train people on the “public desk” to utilize existing climate data and products (i.e., ACIS, cooperative observer-based products, climate studies)

Solution? State offices, by not having to re-create basic products and answer basic climate questions, can focus more on working with communities, stakeholder groups, and producing in-depth analyses and services State offices, by not having to re-create basic products and answer basic climate questions, can focus more on working with communities, stakeholder groups, and producing in-depth analyses and services

Local Offices: The Missing Link Even with improved collaboration among existing climate partners, still needs more local access Even with improved collaboration among existing climate partners, still needs more local access NRCS and University Extension have presence in every county / community in most states NRCS and University Extension have presence in every county / community in most states Routinely provide climate services but may not realize it Routinely provide climate services but may not realize it Need: training and outreach to NRCS and Extension staff to improve the flow of information to local users Need: training and outreach to NRCS and Extension staff to improve the flow of information to local users

More Opportunities for NWS Forecast Office – SCO Collaboration Sharing information with the publicSharing information with the public Shared expertiseShared expertise Reaching local constituenciesReaching local constituencies Training local focal pointsTraining local focal points Developing new products & servicesDeveloping new products & services Quality-assure data sourcesQuality-assure data sources Assessments / statementsAssessments / statements

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