SMRE Spring SMRE Spring 2008 Project An Excel Model to Estimate Expected Remaining Retirement Lifespan By Bruno Trenkler

SMRE Spring Introduction Need a simple tool to calculate expected remaining life for retirement planning. Available Tools  Web based estimators  Web based tables Uses publicly available data for  Total Population  Whites Males Females  Blacks Males Females

SMRE Spring Methodology Data source is: National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol 54, 14, April 19, 2006 (Revised March 28, 2007)

SMRE Spring Survival Plot

SMRE Spring Attempts to Model Survivor Function Distribution Analysis  Weibull (coeff = 0.976)  3 parameter Weibull (coeff = 0.985) Transformations  Manual Log, Log-Log, √, inverse √  Box-Cox Polynomial  6 th order provides R 2 =0.9999

SMRE Spring Mean Expected Life

SMRE Spring Cubic Polynomial Fit

SMRE Spring Expected Remaining Life Excel Interface

SMRE Spring Polynomial Model vs. Data

SMRE Spring Conclusions Modeling survivor function difficult Cubic polynomial gives good results Excel program results are acceptable