USDA Outlook Forum Feeder Cattle Supplies for the South Plains and Implications February 24, 2012 By Don Close Market Director Texas Cattle Feeders Association.

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Presentation transcript:

USDA Outlook Forum Feeder Cattle Supplies for the South Plains and Implications February 24, 2012 By Don Close Market Director Texas Cattle Feeders Association Amarillo, TX ,

Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop - United States: January 1, 2011 and Percent of Previous Year (1,000 Head) Cattle and Calves92,68290,76998 Cows and Heifers that have calved3,99939,11298 Beef Cows30,85029,88397 Milk Cows9,1509, Heifers 500 Pounds and over19,57619,38899 For Beef Replacement5,1395, For Milk Replacement4,5684,52799 Other Heifers9,8699,64998 Steers 500# and over16,39716,07298 Bulls 500# and over2,1552,05295 Calves under 500#14,55514,14597 Cattle on Feed14,01314, ,0102,011 Calf Crop35,69535,31399

Regional Distribution of All Cattle and Beef Heifer Retention Percent of Heifer All Cattle Cattle on FeedRetention Inter Mountain CO, ID, MT, UT, WY11.00%11.50%Up 9% West AZ, CA, NV, OR, WA10.00%6.00%Up 8% Corn Belt IL, IN, IA, KS, MN, MI, MO, NE ND, SD, WI,33.00%49.00%Up 6% Upper Mid-West KY, NJ, OH, PA, VA, W VA9.00%0.00%Up 1% South East AL, AR FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC TN12%0%Up 1% TCFA NM, OK, TX20%28%Dn 13%

South Plains Feeder Supply (TCFA) YoY % ChangeNumber Other Heifers2,2552,170Dn 4%Dn 85,000 Strs > 5003,8653,580Dn 7%Dn 285,000 Combined6,1205,750Dn 6%Dn 370,000 Calves < 5003,4852,960Dn 15%Dn 525,000 Total9,6058,710Dn 9.5%Dn 895,000

Number of Cattle Grazing on Small Grain Pasture – 3 State Total: January 1, 2011 – % of Previous Year Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas %

Feeding Calves Have Added Cost The Historical Average for the Industry is 1 Employee for Every 1,000 Cattle. Commercial Feed Yards are Working.6 to.8 Employees Per 1,000 Head. Grow Yards are Working 1.5 to 2 Employees Per 1,000 Head.

What Will Change the Outlook? Capital Requirements Exceeding Equity Another Summer of Drought Wide Spread Seasonal Rains to Recharge Soil and Ground Water Economic Turmoil in Europe Surging Energy Prices that Curb Consumer Spending and Flatten Vacation Season