Our Nation’s Forestlands On the Edge Susan Stein USDA Forest Service FREMO Workshop, Annapolis FREMO Workshop, Annapolis September 18, 2007

Key Messages America’s forests provide critical goods and services; America’s forests provide critical goods and services; Housing development on and adjacent to our forestlands has implications for these services; Housing development on and adjacent to our forestlands has implications for these services; Forests on the Edge is using GIS to identify areas where rural forests may be impacted by development. Forests on the Edge is using GIS to identify areas where rural forests may be impacted by development.

Who owns our forests?

Facts about U.S. Development U.S. urban and developed land area increased by 25% (21.6 million acres) 1992 to 2003; U.S. urban and developed land area increased by 25% (21.6 million acres) 1992 to 2003; Nearly 1 million acres of private forest land converted annually, from 1992 to 1997; Nearly 1 million acres of private forest land converted annually, from 1992 to 1997; Population growth of counties with national forest land is among the highest in the country; Population growth of counties with national forest land is among the highest in the country; US population is projected to increase by 135 million (to 420 million) by US population is projected to increase by 135 million (to 420 million) by 2050.

Implications Native wildlife Native wildlife Water quality Water quality Timber production Timber production Fire risk and fire management costs Fire risk and fire management costs Recreational experiences Recreational experiences

Forests and Wildlife Many wildlife species rely on forested habitat; Many wildlife species rely on forested habitat; Two-thirds of watersheds in the US contain at-risk species that depend upon private forest habitat; Two-thirds of watersheds in the US contain at-risk species that depend upon private forest habitat; Private forests are critical to many wide- ranging species Private forests are critical to many wide- ranging species

At-risk species Federally designated under the Endangered Species Act (Endangered, Threatened, Candidate, Proposed), or Federally designated under the Endangered Species Act (Endangered, Threatened, Candidate, Proposed), or Designated as critically imperiled, imperiled, or vulnerable according to the NatureServe Conservation Status Ranking system Designated as critically imperiled, imperiled, or vulnerable according to the NatureServe Conservation Status Ranking system

Forest Development and Wildlife Birds: Neotropical migratory birds experience higher rates of predation and parasitism. Birds: Neotropical migratory birds experience higher rates of predation and parasitism. Mammalian carnivores: Large carnivore mortality increases with vehicle collisions and incidental poisoning. Mammalian carnivores: Large carnivore mortality increases with vehicle collisions and incidental poisoning. Wetland amphibians: Species richness is reduced by loss of by forest and wetland cover on adjacent lands. Wetland amphibians: Species richness is reduced by loss of by forest and wetland cover on adjacent lands.

Forests and Water 54% of US water supply originates on forests; 54% of US water supply originates on forests; Almost 30% of water supply comes from private forests Almost 30% of water supply comes from private forests Other water-related benefits Other water-related benefits Protection from soil erosion Protection from soil erosion Filtration of pesticides Filtration of pesticides

Forest Development and Water Reduction of water quality and quantity Reduction of water quality and quantity Reduced groundwater recharge; Reduced groundwater recharge; Higher storm water run-off; Higher storm water run-off; Higher sediment and nutrient levels; Higher sediment and nutrient levels;

Timber 92% of all timber harvested in the US is from private forests

Forest Development and Timber Reduction of active management; Reduction of active management; Decline of timber production; Decline of timber production; Reduction of timber supply Reduction of timber supply

Forests on the Edge State and Private Forestry Research and Development Increase awareness of the importance of conserving America’s forests Increase awareness of the importance of conserving America’s forests Create tools for strategic planning Create tools for strategic planning

Housing density to increase on over 44 million acres of rural private forest ( )

Forestland Development in Washington Study Area, 2000 and 2030

Factors related to Forestland Development in Washington Watersheds Large net migration from other states; Large net migration from other states; Declining stumpage values Declining stumpage values Steady to declining harvests Steady to declining harvests High market for undeveloped land High market for undeveloped land

Private Assets/Public Benefits Study To increase understanding of private forest contributions and how they might change Contributions: Contributions: Water QualityTimber Supply At-Risk Species HabitatInterior Forest Change factors Change factors FireInsect Pests/Disease Air PollutionHousing Development

Development Threats to At-Risk Species

Seneca Watershed Highest ranked in terms of at-risk species and private forest development; Highest ranked in terms of at-risk species and private forest development; 66 Globally-ranked species associated with private forests; 66 Globally-ranked species associated with private forests;

Green Salamander (Aneidus aeneus) Critically imperiled in South Carolina; Critically imperiled in South Carolina; Populations have declined substantially since the 1970’s; Populations have declined substantially since the 1970’s; Only a few of the remaining populations are located on private lands. Only a few of the remaining populations are located on private lands.

National Forests on the Edge Goals: Identify National Forests and Grasslands most likely to experience increased housing density along their borders Identify National Forests and Grasslands most likely to experience increased housing density along their borders

Analysis Three distances: 0 to ½ mile 0 to ½ mile ½ to 3 miles ½ to 3 miles 3 to 10 miles 3 to 10 miles

Housing to increase on over 21 million acres of rural lands within 10 miles of national forests and grasslands

Development adjacent to the Bitterroot National Forest 2000 and 2030

Key Messages America’s forests provide critical goods and services; America’s forests provide critical goods and services; Housing development on and adjacent to our forestlands has implications for these services; Housing development on and adjacent to our forestlands has implications for these services; Forests on the Edge is using GIS to identify areas where rural forests may be impacted by development. Forests on the Edge is using GIS to identify areas where rural forests may be impacted by development.

Contact Information Susan Stein – Cooperative Forestry Staff, Washington DC Susan Stein – Cooperative Forestry Staff, Washington DC (202) or (202) or Eric White – Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR Eric White – Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR ; ;