Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology KIT – Die Kooperation von Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH und Universität Karlsruhe (TH) Center of Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology – CEDIM Kathrin Poser, Friedemann Wenzel and CEDIM members Vulnerability and disaster risk mapping workshop Copenhagen,

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Overview  Who we are  What we do Risk Map Germany Megacity Istanbul Natural disasters under climate change Global earthquake model

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology CEDIM History  Interdisciplinary research centre dedicated to fundamental and applied research in the field of disaster management  Founded in 2002 as a cooperation between the University of Karlsruhe and the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ)  Joined in 2007 by Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe  More than 30 scientist from 15 different research units

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology CEDIM Mission To advance the science of natural and man-made hazards assessment and develop disaster management solutions for early detection and reduction of risk create scientific knowledge, technologies and intelligent tools for risk assessment and analysis, risk management and risk communication co-operate closely with national risk and crisis managing agencies contribute to key international challenges such as the impact of disasters on megacities and under climate change conditions communicate experience into the academic sector with the aim of mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in education

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Partners and key expertise Engineering: Structural, Electrical, Mechanical, Communication Economic Engineering Logistics Engineering Geological Hazards Water Ressource Management Meteorology and Climate Research Decision Support Sustainability Analysis Emergency Medicine Geological Hazards Flood Risk Early Warning Systems Satellite Technology Geoinformation Management

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Hazard, vulnerability and risk Merz and Thieken (2004)

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Classification of disaster impacts Material damage direct indirect tangible intangible tangible intangible Psychological damage Migration Business interruptions Traffic interruptions Fatalities Pollution Casualties Disaster impacts

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Topics Risk Map Germany  Earthquake  Flood  Winter storm  Man-made hazards  Asset estimation  Infrastructures Megacity Instanbul  Earthquake hazard analysis (tectonic model, microzonation, recent and historic seismicity analysis)  Vulnerability and risk (indirect damages, remotely sensed detection of building vulnerability, indicators for socio-economic vulnerability)

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Risk Map Germany  Nation-wide quantification of risk for the natural hazards winter storm, flood and earthquake as well as for man- made hazards  Methods to determine and compare the risks on a common spatial scale (municipalities)  Quantifying direct tangible losses (damage to residential buildings)

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Risk Map Germany  Hazard modelling Winter storm: Gust speed (m/s) for return periods years Earthquake: Macroseismic intensity (EMS98) for return period 475 years Flood: Inundation depth (m) for return period 200/300 years  Vulnerability modelling Damage ratio as a function of hazard Using building characteristics Thieken et al. (2009)

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Risk Map Germany  Asset estimation Disaggregation of population Estimation of residential building stock Estimation of industrial building stock  Presentation Web-based information system: RiskExplorer Germany ( php)

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Risk Map Germany – risk comparison Saxony  Harmonization of data, methods and return periods Thieken et al. (2009)

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Megacity Istanbul  Stress Field Modelling  Local site effects  Fragility and vulnerability Remote sensing Land cover Building density Building height Type of roof Age of buildings Building classification Vulnerability curves for building types  Socio-Economic Impacts Hergert (2008), Münich (2008)

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Impact Factor Physical Risk Descriptor Urban Seismic Risk Index Physical Damage Human Losses Social Fragility Lack of Resilience Megacity Instanbul: Urban Disaster Risk Index

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Megacity Istanbul Using Indicators for Risk Communication and Decision Making  Validation with Expert Group Interactively analyzing indicators to define importance weights (dynamic sensitivity tool in LDW) Analyzing indicators for soundness and usability  Implementation with Stakeholders Managing and organizing a group of target stakeholders in workshops to discuss the outcomes of the MIS. Aim: stakeholders take ownership of the indicator model and use it in periodic evaluations of the city’s risk Khazai (2009)

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Topics Natural Disasters under Climate Change Conditions  Floods under Climate Change  Vulnerability Infrastructure Networks Agriculture Industry Monitoring of Global Risk  Global Earthquake Model (GEM)  Earthquake Model Germany  Central Asia  India Methods  Modelling  Remote Sensing  Indicators  Data Mining  …

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Regional flood hazard in a changing climate Objectives Quantify change of flood hazard characteristics and flood risk in small to medium size catchments in a changing climate Including estimate of uncertainty Method Combine regional climate models driven by global models with regional/local hydrological models and observations Schädler et al. (2008)

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Regional flood hazard in a changing climate  Three typical river systems (Ammer, Mulde, Ruhr)  30 years control time series ( ), 30 years prognosis for )  Evaluation of continuous time series modelled with 2 regional climate models (COSMO- CLM, WRF/MM5) with a resolution <10km, forced by different global climate models 3 rainfall-runoff models Schädler et al. (2008)

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Vulnerability: Indicators Khazai et al. (2008)

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Vulnerability: Indirect tangible loss  Vulnerability indicators for the industrial sector Merz et al. (2008)

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Vulnerability: Infrastructure Hot Spot Map Relative Risk Index Schulz et al. (2007)  Analysis of criticality of road sections  Overlay with hazard maps  Hot spots

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Global Risk Assessment: Global earthquake model Zschau (2008)

Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology KIT – Die Kooperation von Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH und Universität Karlsruhe (TH) Thank you for your attention!