Planning Demand and Supply in a Supply Chain Forecasting and Aggregate Planning.

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Presentation transcript:

Planning Demand and Supply in a Supply Chain Forecasting and Aggregate Planning

供應鏈的需求預測供應鏈決策的階層界定需求預測的要項時間數列預測法估算預測的誤差

Learning Objectives Phases of supply chain decisions Identify components of a demand forecast Time series forecasting Estimate forecast error

供應鏈決策的階層 Phases of Supply Chain Decisions 策略性 Strategy or design: 預測 Forecast 計畫性 ( 戰術性 )Planning: 預測 Forecast 作業性 Operation 實際需求 Actual demand

Characteristics of forecasts Forecasts are always wrong. Should include expected value and measure of error. Long-term forecasts are less accurate than short-term forecasts: Forecast horizon Aggregate forecasts are more accurate than disaggregate forecasts

Forecasting Methods Qualitative Time Series Static Adaptive Causal Simulation

Components of an observation Observed demand (O) = Systematic component (S) + Random component (R) Level (current deseasonalized demand) Trend (growth or decline in demand) Seasonality (predictable seasonal fluctuation)

Time Series Forecasting Forecast demand for the next four quarters.

Time Series Forecasting

Forecasting methods Static F t+l =[ L + (t+l)T ] S t+l Adaptive F t+l =[ L t + lT t ] S t+l Moving average Simple exponential smoothing Holt ’ s model (with trend) Winter ’ s model (with trend and seasonality) Excel File

Error measures MAD Mean Squared Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) Bias Tracking Signal