The Past as Prologue: Partisanship and Competition in Recent Elections Latinos and the 2008 Elections Lecture 7 October 21, 2008.

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The Past as Prologue: Partisanship and Competition in Recent Elections Latinos and the 2008 Elections Lecture 7 October 21, 2008

Analytical Essay: Due Date – October 28 Assignment available on the website if you have misplaced your copy

Questions to Consider for This Week’s Readings We’ll discuss Thursday Why don’t eligible Latinos naturalize? Were citizenship-eligible Latinos to naturalize, how would they change the Latino vote (think in terms of impact and in terms of issues)? What issues shape Latino vote choice in 2008?

Broader Historical Themes in the 2008 Election 1. Critical elections in American political history (realignment) 2. The legacies of the 2000 and 2004 elections as foundation for 2008

U.S. Party Balance and Realignment Realignment – Period when pattern of group support for parties shifts in a significant and lasting manner Theory somewhat discredited Useful to explain patterns of party dominance 1830s- 1960s Exact points of change somewhat disputed Debate about whether realignment model applies in contemporary politics Our era defined by routinely divided government – presidency and Congress controlled by different parties 2008 may (temporarily) change that pattern

Partisan Balance, Presidential Elections

Current Era Begins in 1968 If the model holds, due for a new realignment What could that mean? Emergence of a new party (e.g. 1860) One party replacing a period of divided government (1828, 1896) One regularly dominant party replacing the previously dominant party (1932) Divided government replacing period of one party dominance (1968)

Turning Point Usually a Period of Small Changes Rather Than a Specific Election So, patterns of change in recent elections and things to watch for in 2008 results

The More Immediate Prologue (1) Disputed outcome of the 2000 race Viewing of CNN Election 2000: 36 Days that Gripped the Nation Watch for the following 2000 themes relevant to 2008 Ballot design and voting technologies Does “every vote count?” Bush v. Gore (new role of courts) Better preparation for legal challenges 2008 (and beyond) Renewed attention to voter eligibility The Electoral College

2000 Palm Beach County Butterfly Ballot

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