Data Coordination Working Group (DCWG) Meeting September 18 th & 19 th Energy Information Administration (EIA) Washington, DC Room 2E-069

DCWG Meeting Agenda (Day 1) DCWG Meeting Agenda (Day 1) September 18, 2008 | 1:00p.m.–5:00 p.m.  Introductions  Logistics, objectives of the meeting  Updates from EIA Status of Presidential Permits Update on Forms & Requirements Status of 2011 data collection forms EIA letter to NERC on what they want (Schedule 3 and 4, power flow data, etc…) Collect probability/certainty data on generation in LTRA Data to collect for renewables Granularity of transmission data  Update NERC-EIA Memorandum of Understanding  Review new schedules for data collection  How does NERC map LTRA data into 411  Matching NERC’s UGD and 860  Update on data collection effort by EIA on coal delivery issues  Schedule-1 data needs

DCWG Meeting Agenda (Day 2) September 19, 2008 | 8:00a.m.12:00 p.m.  Review NERC reliability assessment process and analysis Updates from EIA  Posting Policy  Review various Task Force Activities and their impact on DCWG  NERC plans for presenting data in reliability assessments  Feedback from LTRA workshop  Status update on the DCWG and RAS work plans  Feedback from regions on Winter and LTRA forms  Capacity margin proposal by WECC and NERC's findings on collecting Schedule 2 data  Update on Task 4 “Review the NERC Analysis and Processes,” of DCWG work plan  Schedule next briefing call for DCWG  Adjourn

Objectives  Improve coordination with EIA  Decide on data needs: Review Data needs approved by PC Includes NERC requirements for the LTRA and Seasonal Assessments  Develop feedback to RAS  Review DCWG work plans and status

Updates From EIA – John Makens  Updates from EIA Status of Presidential Permits Update on Forms & Requirements Status of 2011 data collection forms EIA letter to NERC on what they want (Schedule 3 and 4, power flow data, etc…) Collect probability/certainty data on generation in LTRA Data to collect for renewables Granularity of transmission data

Data Collection of Renewables  140,000 MW (nameplate) of wind to be added in coming 10 years  Capacity available on peak ranges from 8.7% to 26%

Demand-Side Management Data

Reliability Metrics Working Group  Schedule 5 mileage data

TADS Data Collection Forms  2.1 Joint AC/DC Circuits  2.2 Joint AC/DC BTB Converters  3.1 AC/DC Circuits Inventory  3.2 Transformer Inventory  3.3 AC/DC BTB Converter Inventory  3.4 Summary Automatic Outage Data  4.1 AC Circuit Outages  4.2 DC Circuit Outages  4.3 Transformer Outages  4.4 AC/DC BTB Converter Outages  5.0 Event ID Codes

TADS Overview of Data & Metrics  Element Inventory Data  Automatic Outage Data (each outage) Outage ID Event ID Code Fault Type Outage Initiation Code Outage Start Time Outage Duration Outage Cause Codes  Initiating  Sustained Outage Mode  Basic metrics Outage frequency Outage duration Mean time between failure Mean time to repair Median time to repair Percent availability Percent of Elements with no outages Disturbance report events  Other metrics developed as needed  RE can add additional metrics

New Transmission Data  Transmission Data Reporting Schedule 5  Existing  Planned  Proposed

NERC/EIA Data Interface EIA NERC ES&D LTRA Data 860 Data 411 Data 860 Data KEY NERC = North American Reliability Corporation EIA = Energy Information Administration ES&D = Electricity Supply & Demand database & Unified Generator Database 860 = Annual Electric Generator Report (US only) 411 = Long-Term Generation & Supply Data (US Only) LTRA = Long-Term Reliability Assessment Data Collection (Contains 411 Data) All Data CA/MX Generator Data

Reliability Assessment: Data Collection Process  Workbooks are copied to server folder and renamed  Data is extracted from workbooks and imported into an MS Access database  Data is queried and exported to Excel  Tables and charts are inserted into a draft LTRA report

Data Collection Process (Summer)  ERO-SUMMER2009.xls workbook is sent as an attachment to the Data Request letter in October  Data submissions and narratives due to NERC by March 31  Notification of data corrections by April 15  Corrected submissions due by April 30  Publish report May 15

Data Collection Process (LTRA)  ERO-LTRA2009.xls workbook is sent as an attachment to the Data Request letter in October  Data submissions & narratives due by May 1  Notification of data corrections by June 15  Corrected submissions due by July 30  Publish report October 15

Review NERC Reliability Assessment Process and Analysis  Capacity Margins Layered Approach Metric to evaluate resource adequacy Used for Special Reliability Assessments  2007 Capacity Margins Available Resources Potential Resources

NERC’s Reliability Assessment Analysis * This slide is a simulation of the categories and does not reflect actual data

Data Analysis Process  Tables and Charts Compare to previous year’s data  Identify trend differences  Flag and follow up on outliers Review demand and capacity projections  Check for consistency with the self-assessment text Review capacity margin trends  Identify when curves drop below target (NERC Reference Level)  Check for consistency with the self-assessment text

Data Analysis Process

 Additional Data Queries Support emerging issues Identify industry trends Ad-hoc Perform NERC Special Reliability Assessments:  Retrofit of Once-Through Cooling Generation

NERC Special Reliability Assessment: Retrofit of Once-Through Cooling Generation  NERC Special Assessments offer an opportunity to analyze potential reliability concerns for the future  Along with third-party data, NERC was able to capture retirement and retrofit effects of the proposed EPA 316b rule.

Other Data Activities  Electricity Supply and Demand (ES&D) LTRA data exported to Excel Includes historic capacity and demand data since 1990 Contains EIA-860 – Generator data Available for purchase - $5,000  NERC members - FREE  Regional Council members - FREE  Government agencies - FREE  Educational Institutions - FREE Provide support

Problems  Lack of Consistency Data and definition revisions Output to tables and charts Year to year comparison are cumbersome Supporting questions and teaching the world  No IT Support  No 1-Click Solution  Need to Improve data collection system at NERC Systems require re-tooling Adopt Best Practices from Other Regions

DCWG Support  Process Improvement Helpful tools or applications? Any suggestions?

Posting Policy File Type Size Date Description  Acrobat 19 KB 08/26/08 DCWG Roster (August 26, 2008) Acrobat  PowerPoint 677 KB 06/19/08 DCWG Work Status Report as of June 16, 2008 PowerPoint  PowerPoint 655 KB 04/22/08 DCWG Work Status for RAS as of April 9, 2008 PowerPoint  Acrobat 37 KB 04/11/08 NERC Reliability Assessment Process Acrobat  Acrobat 74 KB 04/11/08 Data Collection Survey - Regions Acrobat  Acrobat 75 KB 04/11/08 Data Collection and Analysis Process Acrobat  PowerPoint 966 KB 04/11/08 Data Collection and Analysis Process Presentation PowerPoint  Acrobat 19 KB 04/11/08 Data Collection Experience and Issues for the 2008 Data Collection Acrobat  Acrobat 51 KB 04/11/08 DCWG Work Plan Acrobat  PowerPoint 83 KB 04/11/08 DCWG Action Items PowerPoint  PowerPoint 670 KB 04/11/08 DCWG Work Status PowerPoint  Acrobat 26 KB 04/11/08 DCWG Transparency Issues Acrobat  PowerPoint 679 KB 04/11/08 DCWG Work Status for RAS PowerPoint  Acrobat 102 KB 04/11/08 Meeting Agenda - April 9, 2008 (Washington, D.C.) Acrobat  PowerPoint 690 KB 04/11/08 PC Activities PowerPoint  Acrobat 56 KB 01/30/06 Meeting Minutes - December 14-15, 2005 (Tampa, FL) Acrobat

Review of Various TF/WG Activities  RAS: Need for More granularity in Transmission Need to add one more year to data collection to eliminate current Summer in LTRA  RAITF: Reliability Assessment Improvement  RAGTF: Reliability Assessment Guidebook  RMWG: Reliability Metrics

Proposed Capacity Definitions  These definitions represent an enhancement over the current set in use for reliability assessments.  Proposed definitions were presented to the NERC PC at the June 4-5, 2008 meeting in Toronto for comment, and were also circulated to the PC’s subgroups.  The proposal addresses PC specific advice: treatment of resources in organized markets, and deals with the deliverability within the recommended categories

Comparison to Current Definitions  Existing – Certain  Existing – Uncertain  Future – Planned  Future – Proposed  Existing – Certain  Existing – Other  Existing but Inoperable  Future – Planned  Future – Other  Conceptual Current Definitions Proposed Definitions

General Concepts for Reporting Capacity  All existing capacity resources (iron in the ground) must be reported in one of the “Existing” categories In cases where categorization is unclear or difficult to determine, report as “Other”  “Future” capacity resources have achieved one of the milestones outlined in the definition (some degree of confidence that the resource will become available) Milestones include permitting, site work, or contracting status  “Conceptual” category used to capture expected resources that are less certain or are still in the planning/development stages (i.e. resources that could not be classified as “Future”)

 The goal of this Guidebook is to: Improve consistency and transparency of assessments Increase granularity in assessments Outline the process to assess emerging industry issues Foundations/expectations/requirement for the NERC portion of the assessments Provide a framework for conducting comprehensive and independent assessments  This Guidebook will be a reference for regional entities and registered entities, and is organized to clarify reliability assessment expectations and objectives.  It is intended to document expectations and provide a comprehensive outline for reliability assessments. RAG: Reliability Assessment Guidebook

 First Draft Completed, materials provided by RIS DCWG LFWG NERC Staff  Report being reviewed by RAG Task Force  Draft being Readied for October-November RAG Status

 June 15Draft Outline Completed  June 30Industry review of Draft Outline Completed  September 30Review of Draft with RAG members  October 15Guidebook preparation completed  December 5-6Review final Reliability Assessment Guidebook completed by PC  December 30Reliability Assessment Guidebook completed and launched RAG Updated Schedule

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #1  Seasonal and Long-Term Reliability Assessment Guidebook  Background: Regional entities perform reliability assessments using a variety of tools, assumptions and methodology. There is a need to provide a guidebook, for the regional entities to use in preparation of the assessments and for peer reviewers to ensure consistency in the reliability assessments, outlining NERC’s expectations and forming a foundation for a sufficiently robust reliability assessment. The objectives of the reliability assessment guidebook are: Clarifying reliability assessment expectations Fortify peer review of assessments Address inconsistency in regional responses Ensure transparency Increase linkage between NERC staff and regional assessments Balancing areas that cross regional entity boundaries, especially regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and Independent System Operators (ISOs), may require attention as their assessment can be fragmented between two regions and may not accurately reflect reliability The DCWG will contribute to the data collection portions of the LTRA Guidebook.

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #2  Use of Scenario evaluations to incorporate emerging issues into LTRA  Background: he LTRA provides a reference case from which select scenarios can be compared. Identifying significant emerging issues should drive scenario development. A process has been proposed by the RAITF that includes RIS/TIS/RAS identification of emerging issues, survey of the PC membership to develop a risk matrix, vetting the results and development of reliability assessment for comparative purposes to the LTRA reference case. Once approved by the PC, materials to support this process and execution of the process are next steps. DCWG will work with the Regional Entities to incorporate the data requirements for the 2009 and 2011 scenarios

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #3  Metrics development for 1-5 and 6-10 years  Background: The certainty and granularity of long-term and seasonal reliability assessments are different between the 1-5 year and the 6-10 year timeframes of the 10-year LTRA. In addition, metrics are also needed for seasonal assessments to provide an indication of continuity between the operating and future planning horizons. Meaningful metrics (beyond just capacity margin) are required to more fully assess regional/subregional reliability and adequacy and achieve an appropriate level of granularity; this work will also include considerations about the data that needs to be collected to calculate these metrics. DCWG will enhance the seasonal and LTRA data collection templates to support the metric collection DCWG to develop data collection forms and instruction sheets to support the collection of data and metric requirements identified DCWG will ready seasonal and LTRA templates for 2009 data collection by October 2008

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #4  Review the NERC reliability assessment analysis and processes The DCWG will review the NERC data collection process and reliability assessments for seasonal and LTRA and propose enhancements to the reliability indexes measured by NERC. Report that outlines the current data collection process/analysis and, if applicable, make recommendations for improvements. Report due to RAS in December 2008

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #5  Recommend changes to the data collected and the definitions to the RAS and PC. The DCWG will seek feedback from regional entities on the new supply and demand definitions proposed by RAITF, DSMTF and LFWG, approved by the PC. The DCWG will develop a summary of what worked and what needs further enhancements Summarize the findings to RAS. Report to RAS on seasonal and LTRA assessments for 2008 by: April for Summer May (LTRA) October for Winter

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #6  Collaborative meetings Annual meeting with EIA increasing coordination and providing input to EIA data collection activities. Actively engage other NERC Planning Committee groups to support the work plan DCWG to actively participate in the reliability assessment improvement process by providing liaison as appropriate. Provide periodic status reports to RAS during 2008

DCWG 2008 Work Plans #7  EIA 411 data collection Collect data on behalf of the industry for the Energy Information Administrations (EIA) form 411 DCWG will submit data per EIA’s deadlines annually April of 2008

Update on Task 5 Data Collection Survey Recommendations Response 1.NERC should send the data request in October rather than January-February 2.NERC should revise the NERC Regions submittal deadline for the LTRA annual Data Collection efforts from March 31 st to April 30 th. 3.NERC should hold Workshops earlier to explain the forms, data expectations and schedules. 4.Address the status of the MOD standards and the implications for LSE, RC compliance.

Feedback from Regions on Winter and LTRA Forms  Feedback & Comments

Update on Task 4 Review the NERC Analysis and Processes Phil Fedora: Review the NERC reliability assessment analysis and processes The DCWG will review the NERC data collection process and reliability assessments for seasonal and LTRA and propose enhancements to the reliability indexes measured by NERC. Report that outlines the current data collection process/analysis and, if applicable, make recommendations for improvements. Report due to RAS in December 2008

Schedule Next Briefing Call for DCWG

Final Comments